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Olerud363

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Everything posted by Olerud363

  1. Olerud363
    Semien pulls a lot of fly balls. I looked over his batted ball stats the other day and his pull side ground ball rate is 40%. Soto's and Vlad's are near 70%. Not sure if that is repeatable, haven't checked other years... but would that explain why Semien out-performs xwOBA?
  2. Olerud363
    If we want Vlad to win the triple crown need to get Biggio healthy and back to 2020 form, and maybe get Austin Martin back, but neither can weight lift. Some how see if you can get Nimmo from the Mets. Line up is Nimmo Martin Biggio Vlad
  3. Olerud363
    Manny used to drive in 165 with similar stats, I guess Lofton, Omar, and Alomar helped with like .400ish on base percentages and only 40 homers between them. Semien with a .340 on base and almost 40 homers is just too much of a base un-clogger. Same with Springer with a .350 on base and power.
  4. Olerud363
    Well Santander is a switch hitter and doesn't seem to have extreme splits.
  5. Olerud363
    Yeah. I would assume that you just turn on the sign stealing at a few critical moments to get a rally just when you need it... see 2015 KC Royals. Though maybe the Orioles are turning it on just when the Jays tie them or get close. Sort of fits the pattern. First inning runs, then all the other runs are when the Jays tie or get close. Only scored in the 1st and 7th last night I believe.
  6. Olerud363
    Well haven't they had a top 3 or 4 pick for like 5 years in a row? I thought I read they have the best hitting and pitching prospect... kind of where the Astros were in 2013 or 2014. Prospects will be coming up next year so now is about the time to perfect the sign stealing scheme for their 100 win 2023 team.
  7. Olerud363
    So what do they do about it? Look for a man in white? Or a guy in centerfield. Just change the signs every couple of pitches? Put down an offspeed sign then throw a fastball at a guys knee?
  8. Olerud363
    Just like Ray last night they seemed to be taking a lot of Ryu's breaking stuff... Orioles successfully implementing a sign stealing scheme to end the Jays season would be a very 2021 thing. If it's 3-0 after the first in the second game I'll go with that narrative.
  9. Olerud363
    Wilner's twitter is kind of entertaining. First he didn't get a blue check and was sad, then he has to deal with a bunch of fans telling him the season is over (not that Wilner is sad the season is over, he is sad because he has to block all the fans telling him that).
  10. Olerud363
    lol. Seattle will handle Arizona no problem the next couple of days. Guess Arizona wants that fist overall pick more. At least an Seattle/Boston wild card game will be sort of humorous
  11. Olerud363
    Because he has no power and (as far as I know) is not elite at short stop. Looks like Russ Adams right now. For a while it looked like Martin might be a Craig Biggio like freak, with so many walks and hit by pitch that he'd put up a great on base percentage and have some line drive power. I think he was at almost .450 at his high point. That bubble kind of burst, a .388 obp is good but not elite in the minors. The other thought was that Martin had a bad hand, and would hit for power when it healed. A couple of weeks ago he hit like 3 homers in a week or something and it looked like that might be true, but now it doesn't look like it is true. lol. With injuries and the missing season everything changes week to week with these guys.
  12. Olerud363
    Honestly who knows. It really sucks that Moreno only played 33 games this year, hopefully he gets 10 more since he is apparently getting healthy. From what we saw Moreno was a great right handed hitter, high average, power and improved walk rate, but only 33 games. Physically he's probably more like Martinez then Kirk.... If his 33 games this year was accurate he'd be projected as a killer right handed hitter too... however maybe the numbers would of regressed significantly... even harder to know because of the missing 2020 season. Others know more than I do, I just stat-scout and with injuries plus missing 2020 I might be getting fooled by small sample sizes.
  13. Olerud363
    Kirk is the next Edgar Martinez and needs 150 games 650 plate appearances one way or the other. Moreno is the next Edgar Martinez too so as soon as next year it will be like the middle of our lineup is Edgar Martinez, Albert Pujols, Edgar Martinez.
  14. Olerud363
    Jansen Catcher Kirk Catcher/DH Moreno 3b/2b/backup Catcher that is on standby in case Jansen gets injured when Kirk is DHing. Groshans - pinch hitter for pitcher who is batting because Jansen got injured when Kirk was DHing and Moreno hadn't caught in months.
  15. Olerud363
    I don't give a rats ass if anyone responds, but yes, of course I am trolling Grant. Most non-Grant posters are well aware that it is a multi-team race. Any one following baseball for a while also knows sucky teams sometimes go far just by chance, 87 Twins for you old timers, 2014 Royals recently. Grant has just annoyed me to no end with his constant trolling of Boston. Under John Henry Boston is on a 20 year run with different players, manager, GMs and presidents. They have a decent team this year and like the Rays are a great organization. They are currently the wild card leader, have a track record of success, have the former best Pitcher in baseball back, their starting staff all has great peripherals, there is zero reason to dismiss Boston, or complain about their pitching (too much). Grant deserves trolling, otherwise ignore my post.
  16. Olerud363
    Boston isn't a real contender so that's 4. Seattle has a bad run differential and might not be a real contender so that is 3, New York, Oakland and Toronto... If NY rights the ship, given Oakland is struggling just a bit and of course Boston isn't a real contender with their s***** pitching staff (did I mention that?) it is more than likely this is decided before the final weekend and we get Cole vs Ray. A multi team race would be really exciting, but given lack of contenders outside of Toronto, Oakland and NY, looks like this won't be the year.
  17. Olerud363
    lol. That's why we were in several non-Sale games that were like 2-1, 1-0... just this year. And just last night Eovaldi pitched them to a 2-1 win. Even if somehow Sale didn't pitch the wild card game it's not like you'll get their worst pitcher then some players... which is the scenario that led to the blow outs.
  18. Olerud363
    A guy who throws 98 with good spin and has a good breaking slider, and the YES network guys wonder why he wasn't up all year, then when he walks 7 they look at the minor league stats and realize he walked a tonne down there and say "that's why he wasn't up all year."
  19. Olerud363
    Could you imagine what Larry Walker would of done if he played 2700 games with the Yankees? Walker had a higher OPS on the road than Jeter. Walker has the same average on the road as Paul O'Neil but more power, on base and defense. So Walker as a Yankee would likely be O'Neil as a Yankee with more power, on base and defense., Raw numbers wouldn't be as good as in Colorado, but imagine if he was healthier and played 2700 games as a Yankee like Jeter did? Even more fun. Walker's MVP season in 1997 he had 29 homers on the road. On the road. Imagine Walker in 1997 in Yankee Stadium... he might chase 60. In alternative-land Walker as a 2700 game Yankee is legend.
  20. Olerud363
    I'm not sure how to measure the value of the roster spot. Unless Semien or Vlad got really hot, he is going to lead the AL in fWar by a WAR or so. However his total won't be higher than Trout 2013, Randy Johnson 2002, the best Pujols years. Bonds 2001-2004 would be way ahead. By fWAR will Ohtani be in the top 20 seasons of the century? You'll have 4 Bonds seasons, at least a couple Trout seasons ahead of him. Maybe a couple of Pujols seasons, a Randy Johnson season. Maybe a Halladay season.
  21. Olerud363
    Kirk has the best career major league OPS of any Toronto Blue Jay including Vladimir Guerrero Jr. He was just behind Vlad in terms of minor league OPS.
  22. Olerud363
    I'll move this here, because it is distracting from the "Vlad to Indy Ball" (not today, he's hot again) discussion I think it's interesting and kind of weird that mention Ohtani's fWAR of only 7 (lower than most people probably think it is) and the reaction is "Hey, hey, hey! Keep the fWAR out of it. This is history. No place for numbers. No one has pitched and hit like this before." Wasn't saying any different, 2 things can be true. No one has pitched and hit like this before, and his fWAR is "only" 7, on track for 8, lower than a few recent MVP seasons.
  23. Olerud363
    What you are saying is even more obtuse. What is your point? That when the story is unique enough we shouldn't use stats? Where did I say Ohtani wasn't unique? What is up with this board. Saying Ohtani's fWAR is currently 7 is not implying he is unique or not unique it is just stating a fact.
  24. Olerud363
    You can have both. You can enjoy the player and pay attention to the stats. Same could be said about anyone (not that everyone is having a historical season, I just mean if you forgot about the stats you can enjoy all your favourite players more). Fernando Tatis - dynamic hitter, baserunner and can play short stop... just enjoy the season and forget that he wasn't playing short stop well and is now in left field (injury related but still) Javier Baez - No one is as exciting as him. Just forget about the sub .300 on base percentage and enjoy the season. Joe Panik - A veteran guy, sweet left handed swing, doesn't try to kill the ball, hustles... don't look at the stats just enjoy the veteran presence.
  25. Olerud363
    If he played good defense he could pick up another couple of WAR. If he played mediocre defense it wouldn't make a difference. Not a failure of the stat. It just measures what happened. Not what would of happened if the world was different.
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