Olerud363

It's a message board. People come here to rant about s***. Everyone has a different style. Some have several thousand short posts, I have only 500, but some are longer. At this point most of us have come to think AA is a bad GM. It is an open question as to why... Is he stupid?? Is he weak and easily influenced by other people who are stupid? Does he have any real power? That's an important question. A lot of that crap I write is contemplating that question in the larger context of how empty suits ruin good companies.. see RIM. It becomes important to understand the dynamics at work. If AA is stupid he needs to just disapear. If AA is just weak, can't stand up to Beeston... then maybe things will be better when he's president.

What the hell does this even mean?? There is no arguing with the numbers. None at all. Mike Trout is good, Arencibia is bad. Blah, blah, blah. There is no walking the line here. The numbers work. The numbers are good. On base percentage is good, runs are good, advanced stats work pretty well. Simple stats work good too if you know how to use them Mike Trout is good - his on base percentage is good, his defense is good, his baserunning is good. Arencibia is bad - his on base percentage is bad, his defense is bad too they say. There is no walking the line here. Numbers are good. So is there any point of having scouts?? YES. Ofcourse. The Scouts job is mainly to predict who will have good numbers in the future. And here lies the problem. If the scouts and the GM don't understand the numbers... then even if they predict perfectly who will have good numbers they will still be f***ed because what they think are good numbers really aren't. Scout - My prediction for Mr. X. (Catcher) is that he will hit ..266 .344 .380 with 9 homers, 63 runs, 61 rbi and my prediction for J.P. Arencibia is .231 .277 .438 with 25 homers 52 runs and 76 rbis. Alex - Sweet diggity... 76 rbis for JP?? So we should go with JP next year? Assuming your predictions are true? Scout - I am a super scout, they will be true. So here in this simple example Mr. X. will "produce" 115 runs (rbi+runs-homers) and Arencibia will produce 103 runs using this formula, and the scout is truly a superscout. The greatest of all time because he predicts exactly what numbers these guys will have. But AA and the scouts think Arencibia's prediction is better. So even with this hypothetical superscout we would still be screwed because AA and the scouts don't know what numbers are good, so who cares if they can predict how players will do. Anyway it's all so much nonsense. There is no "walking the line" there is no old school or new school. We have a system of measurement and numerics that started thousands of years ago and from that specific tools have been developed to analyze niches like finite element modelling and baseball. If the fat greek needs to walk the line here, then he needs to quit right now, and go back and rewrite the history books from the day his fat greek ancestors invented numbers and say "f*** you my forefathers, I am a greek, and I don't believe in your numbers, I believe in handshakes, and haircuts, and suits and Paul Beeston". I can't emphasize this enough. There is no arguing with the numbers. There is still room for scouts, their job is to predict who will have good numbers in the future... but if one doesn't even know what "good numbers" are?? Then we are all f***ed.

I have them at 76 wins right now for 2014... I think they need to add 10 wins... This offseason I want to make sure I state an opinion about whatever happens. Just so when I start bitching I've something one way or the other before it all went down. The good news is they had historically bad perfomances from J.P., Thole, 2b, Melky, Johnson, Morrow, Romero/Wang. So there is the potential to add 10 wins by choosing the right catcher(s), left field, 2b, sp, and bench players (cause the bench players are going to be used). (I think Melky will bounce back, but I think they need to make him a 4th outfielder/platoon DH. If he's healthy he'll get 140 games one way or another). So I think with the right moves they can get to a projected 85 wins... which is fine... then they'll need luck, but that's really the same boat a cleveland or oakland is ussually in anyway.

Just got a chance at lunch to clean up that report a bit. I am not Stoeten with the ability to spend all day on this stuff (and admittedly he does an OK job polishing it all up, grammatically, spelling wise, avoiding typos and mix ups etc.) Actually had War out and War in mislabeled. Based on some of the assumptions I made I estimate we sent 4.9 WAR out, and got 4.5 in. Lost 1/2 a win in all this. You have to make assumptions in this... cause you can't assume Hech would of played 150 games with the Jays... stuff like that. You have to decide wether to include Yan Gomes (I did not in the final). But whatever. The moves did nothing either way. For the privelege of sending away much of the farm system the Jays neither lost or gained in 2013.

One final thing: An obvious thing. These trades were designed to "win now" but they had neglible impact on the now. Things probably get worse from here in unexpected ways. And we've allready seen that with Yan Gomes. Our prospects are now all over the place, Miami, New York, Houston... and in the coming years there will be nonlinear unexpected happenings... a few will burn us (like Michael Young and Jeff Kent did). As we add up the WAR next year, the year after, etc. it may get much, much worse in unexpected ways.

Notes: One real weird thing, I have Alvarez twice because he actually was one of the Marlins most productive hitters, 5th or so in hitting, weird, in the final estimate of WAR given up I took this out, obviously it wouldn't of happened with the Jays. Did this a couple of ways. Looked at the main trades. I did take out the Indians trade (because that was a bit of fluke that biases things but it still happened so I mention it). I also did the final calculation without Boni/Hech. The reason being Hech had huge negative value. He would not of played 150 games with the Jays (assuming Escobar). Boni and Hech were both negative, but Hech would of had much less playing time with the Jays. So when evaluating the net impact of the trades it's not really accurate to say "thank god we got rid of Hech, he would of dragged us down a couple wins, probably he would of got enough playing time, but who knows. 1 Million other ways one could analyze this making assumptions on playing time All this being said the net impact of the trades was nothing, 73 wins last year, 74 this year. If the trades were not made how would we of replaced 400 innings from Dickey/Buerhle?? AA (fat non-functional mind) can't answer that question. But the rest of the world can. Henderson Alvarez would of replaced 1/4... Cecil would probably of Started. You get lucky with a Kazmir or Liriano... give Romero starts but get Unlucky, give Nolin some starts it works, or maybe doesn't, same with Stroman, even Synd is on the radar. You throw s*** around, some of it works, some it doesn't, in the end you get the 400 innings at slightly less value then Dickey/Buerhle... but you also have better defense with Escobar and someone not Melky in left. So the wins even out. All the crazy stuff last winter did nothing. No need for analyis, win loss record tells that story,. ******************************Incoming******************************************** (from Marlins) Reyes 2.2 Boni -0.4 Beurhle 2.5 Johnson 0.5 4.8 (positive from marlins) 5.2 (from Mets) Thole -0.5 Dickey 2.0 Melky -0.9 Rogers 0.4 Total - 5.8 (Without Indians trade) 5.4 FINAL ESTIMATE OF WAR COMING IN (Without Indians and Hech/Boni without Alvarez hitting) 4.5 *******************************Outgoing************************************ To Marlins Marisnick -0.2 Alvarez 0.5 Mathis -0.5 Hechavaria -1.9 Alvarez 1.9 Escobar 3.9 (total outgoing to Marlins/Rays) 2.8 (total positive to Marlins/Rays) 5.8 To Mets d'Arnaud 0.1 To Indians Gomes 3.7 Outgoing 6.6 (without Indians Trade) 2.9 FINAL ESTIMATE OF WAR GOING OUT (Without Indians and Hech/Boni) 4.9

Let me just play around with some stats to help me think through your scenario... Melky -- world on fire .320 15 90 -- that sound about right?? Reyes 120 games .290 10 45, really not that different then this year, 20 more games maybe Santana - 9-13 4.75 Dickey 16-11 3.70 Morrow .... 15 good games or 15 horrible games... I'll put him somewhere in between 5-5 4.30 I will say Hutch 15-10 3.70 Lawrie .290 20 90 Stroman 6-4 3.44 Jays 84-78 -- This scenario would please me. Hutch, Lawrie established atleast Dickey on track to have a decent 40s (he's a knuckle baller). So at this point they would have to raise the payroll again but with Lawrie, Hutch, Stroman, Dickey, good Melky, Reyes a 3 WAR short stop and other pieces.... dang... this is like a best case scenario You don't really say what happens to Bautista and EE. But again, Lawrie - career on track... Melky "dynamic bat", Dickey rebound, Hutch/Stroman penned in for 2015. In this scenario people atleast get excited for 2015.

Good list kgm... the only one I disagree with is "couldn't replace Reyes" Actually the Jays replaced Reyes as good as any franchise could of. They had a cheep, on base ish, good enough defensive player waiting to replace him. A starter?? No. But as good as you could hope for in that situation. A sabermetric advanced creative choice. An unbelievable, incredible, intelligent choice given the circumstances. Out of the box thinking with the best franchises in baseball. A ninja move if there ever was one. Kawasaki played at a win or so replacing Reyes. Reyes at this point is a 4-5 win player. The Jays somehow took what could of been a disaster and managed to only lose a win or two... great work. The problem is the Jays probably don't understand they did a good job there. Boys... that Japanese guy takes to many pitches. The goins kid swing at em all. We need a little more aggressiveness like that. The problem is the Jays don't how good of a job they did replacing Reyes for 70 games.

Sounds similiar to 2008. There were no crazy player moves made, the desparate act was hiring Cito again. Not sure if Cito was not the right guy to introduce JP Arencibia and Snider to the majors or the right guy to convince Halladay to stay a couple more years.

I am taking AAs comments today at face value... the tumour was very big and the training staff were amazed he was even moving around at all. After tumour removal he will be much better. I can understand why you are skeptical. I am projecting Melky at, I don't know, .290 .350 .420 or so with decent defense... 135 games. Platoon with Lind at DH, and fill in for Bautista, Colby, Mr. X injuries where Mr. X is another mashing outfielder we acquire. But if AA is just bullshitting us about Melky or he's delusional... which he could be... well where f***ed anyway if the fat greek is that out to lunch,.

So far the concensus for anyone who has given number is 77 or so I think there are 10 wins to be gained by choosing the right outfielder, second basemen, and catcher. I base this on the fact the C, LF, 2B were -5. They won't be -5 again next year but something else will go wrong. Maybe Bautista will miss a lot of time, or Reyes injured again, or Rasmus will go back to 2012 style. I don't know. But by acquiring an outfielder, a second basemen and catcher, things are more robust... I think major playing time will be available for Melky even if another outfielder is aquired. Melky starts year as 4th outfielder (we can have a nice story, Melky given more off for tumor recovery) then when things go wrong Melky just steps in and if he's healthy gets 135 games anyway. I think there are only 5 wins to be gained on the pitching side... Based on what I expect for the pitchers in 2014, not what they did in 2013. Dickey/Buerhle/Morrow/Happ/Hutch/Drabek/Nolin/Stroman projected 2014 is not as bad as Dickey/Buerhle/Morrow/Johnson etc. 2013. If AA learned one thing from this year, is that he can't go by last years stats, just cold hard next year projections... and allready I bet he's underestimating what the pitching is likely to do 2014

So far... Olerud363 - Jays go 76-86, don't know if they will be last, People tell me Yanks will be incredibly bad, believe when I see it. MohYou - Jays will be last. Does not specify a record. Opinions may be updated based on offseason moves.

running thread to state your view on the blue jays record in 2014. Place to update your predictions based on moves that are made. Based on AAs comments today I see - lf Melky, cf Colby, rf Bautista, 3b Lawrie, ss Reyes, 2b Goins, 1b EE, DH Lind, C Arencibia, Pitching 1. Dickey, 2. Beurhle, 3. Mr. X 4. Morrow, 5. Happ. Bullpen, roughly the same. Mr. X. is a 12-10 4.00 guy. 2014 - Blue Jays score 661 runs, allow 691, record is 76-86 Offense is down because nothing will be done to address weaknesses/regressions (dynamic bats!!), Goins/Arencibia are better then 2b/c 2013 (because anybody would be) but not players that can be regulars on a playoff team. Lind/Rasmus regress to career averages, Reyes/Bautista/EE lose a bit as they continue into their 30s (just a bit but it adds up), more importantly one of those 3 suffers major injury which reduces value to near 0. Defense isn't good, despite AAs "promise" to concentrate on defense. Defense isn't good because Bautista, EE, Reyes are 30 somethings, Arencibia is Arencibia. Pitching is improved... not really because of the acquisition of Mr. X. (12-10 4.00) but because Nolin, Stroman, even Sanchez and others are good depth for the injuries, Dickey, Morrow bounce back a bit. Blue Jays 11th runs scored, 8th runs against, tiny bit of pythagoran bad luck gives 76-86. Will update based on any moves that are made.

JP is great, really follows the Cito/Murph philosaphy. Paul loves it. He hits homers. Now we realize .190 isn't a good average. Our projection has JP boosting his average and on base percentage (for you eggheads) by 30 points next year, that gets him hitting .220 next year, .255 on base percentage, but more importantly our projections show he's gonna drive in 70 and that's what counts. That's 20 more runs. Our offense is great right now 8th place. With JPs 20 more rbis that gets us up there a little bit more and that's good enough really. We don't believe in on base percentage. We believe in Cito Gaston and Duane Murphy, and JPs a 70 rbi catcher... He only drove in 50 this year. You do the math. That's 20 more runs next year. I'm tired of you foolish disrespectful egg-heads making it too complicated. 70 rbi catcher. What more do you want? Now get out of my face!

Sanchez+Stroman+Lugo for price?? sure. I'd do it if it was available and i was AA. Not if I was new GM hired to fix things**. (**Edited: not unless I could turn Price around for better pieces)

This is why is whole stupid idea of concentrating on starters is stupid. Given Toronto is a slight hitters park, the offense is a tad worse then we think, the pitching a tad better... In terms of where we need to be?? Tampa is at 107 OPS+, 103 ERA+... Oakland 107, 105. Toronto is 99, 96. Both offense and pitching need to be improved. So he has to go all out, unearthing every single rock. If the team has to be weighted one way or the other?? Fine. If somehow he could get Choo, McCann, and a second basemen?? Do it and hope the pitching comes together. If he could get Sale or David Price + Parker and have to find scraps for catcher/2b?? Do that. He can't go into this offseason with any dogma.

if those trades were available, I'd make them instead... depending what the + is. If we got Lincecum... Isn't he negative value right now?? Not sure what is going on with him. He is still pitching (unlike Romero) but not good. I'd want Parker + Lincecum, based on the idea neither is a sure thing and hopefully one gives you what you need (4 WAR) and the other either isn't a terrible negative or is injured or something anyway.

Obviously it depends what other moves are available. But say Sanchez+ for Parker is all that there is. So take it, or no big move in the winter. It still depends a bit. If I was a fat-greek-sellout that was in a mess and had a bad boss, and I knew I wouldn't be GM when Sanchez was ready?? Knew that Rogers isn't as dumb as we think and there will be a total house cleaning after 2015?? Knowing that I would pretty much have to win in 2014/15. I think I'd have to make that trade. Sanchez+ for Parker. On the other hand if I was a fat-greek-sellout, with sick ninja political skills, and I knew I'd be president of the Toronto Blue Jays by 2015 no matter what... I'd keep Sanchez, make a couple of bad but insignificant moves to humour the Beest, start planning for the rebuild in 2016. Possibly Sanchez would be a piece traded early to get all the pieces on the same timeline in 2020 or whenever the hell a real team arrives.

Synd, Desc, Woj, Nocilino, nicely set to launch, four guys quickly to aa or higher... doing well. Good drafting. Good development (by other teams). Bad evaluation by Blue Jays?? Time will tell. None have thrown a pitch in the majors. But I'd be pretty comfortable handing one 2014 rotation spot to Max(Synd, Desc, Woj, Nicolino) -- switching between them as performance dictates. Once gave rotation spots to Litsch, Marcum, McGowan... worked out fine I guess until their arms fell off, which happens.

There's a chance Parker is a 5 WAR guy once at age 26... there is a chance Sanchez is. There is an infinite number of possibilities. If the goal is to win in the next two years, then we need to ride someone's peak. Ryan Dempster had a nice little peak 7,3,3 WARs or so 31-33. It's hard to predict this kind of thing. But keep in mind that if you use a sound philosaphy over several player aqcuisitions you'll win enough. Parker's peak might be as good dempsters. No, neither are Cliff Lee... but we don't have Cliff Lee as an option (and even off peak he is a good option). So the strategy could be to capture someone's peak. Age 25 to 29 or so.

Basically you share the view of John Farrell. If you extend people to include front office personal then Paul Beeston did an amazing job at drafting Alex Anthopolous, an intelligent, progressive, young up and coming baseball executive. Paul Beeston did a terrible job at developing Alex Anthoplous, his underhanded, hyper-political, cruel and stupid techniques shaped Anthopoulos into a frightened characture of his former self. Farrell has to win. It is that type of event that will make some other person at Rogers say "Golly gee, it says here that John Farrell led the red sox to the world series pennant... I wonder if that's the same John Farrell that we used to have??? Couldn't be, Paul said that John Farrell wasn't a team player and would go nowhere... but you know what, I'll check up on that and see if it is the same guy... maybe Paul isn't as keen as we thought".

You probably know my view by now. But I think people misunderstand it and think I am a Farrell fan or a troll. The "whispers" that I hear, keep in mind I live in the North East states and know a couple of people with "vague" family ties to the red sox. Whether they are getting inside information or not I can't verify... but even if they are only hyper-crazy fans that absorb all things red sox they probably pick up good information. This is the whisper... not reality necessarrily but perhaps a grain of truth. John Farrell is a good person. is a great player development guy, believes in on base percentage, great with the pitchers, There were incredible differences between Farrell and the Jays front office. There were crazy differences between Farrell and the hitting coach Murphy, and the players were getting conflicting advice. Overall it was Farrell vs. Blue Jay culture. For whatever reasons the culture is poisonous and backwards and it starts at the highest level (the Beestly level, above that no one knows anything about baseball, Beeston doesn't either but he thinks he does). Farrell had his say, no one listened, he was treated shabbelly and left.. not so much for "dream job" but to work with people who would listen to him." That's the whisper I hear between listening to a lot of non-blue-jay media and people who claim vague inside connections. True or not. Who knows. I'm not an insider, and I have no idea if the whisperers really know what they are talking about. But on the chance it is true I need Beeston and AA and Murphy to see Farrell with the trophy. I am not a Farrell fan, I just see Farrell's success with an moneyball, on base percentage driven team, that is developing a great farm system... I see Farrell with a manager of the year award, and a world series as perhaps an avenue to get messages through to Beeston's incredibly warped head... or at the very least it is something another Rogers guy might see... then ask "Who is Paul Beeston really?? And what exactly does he know about baseball??"

Given the window you almost have to say yes to that. Sanchez, Jansenn, Pillar, Norris or something?? I mean what is more value Sanchez 5 WAR in 2016, 2017, 2018, or Parker potentially 4 WAR in 2014 and 15?? Not like we know exactly what it will be, but assume Sanchez peak will be starting in 2016... Trade that for Parker's peak now... hope to hell it somehow works. Toronto wins something is "a-place-to-be-again" Rogers cranks payroll way, way up. Would you trade 5 WAR a year 2016-18, for 4 WAR a year 2014-2016?

See I think a subset of those players will rebuild value. Currently I would not see getting a real good return for Bautista + Dickey... Like they are viewed now as 2-3 WAR pieces (I know Bautista is still at 4, but what will teams view him as worth going forward). So 2 2.5 WAR players aren't worth as much as a 6 WAR player. So what I see happening is some guys might rebuild value... but the whole set won't. So Dickey + Bautista might be at 6 WAR value again by mid-season... but it won't be 3 earch, it might be 6 for one, and the other is completely useless. So I see individual trade values being rebuilt... but not everyones... so no contention. This is why it is difficult to play this game. A lot of fans want a rebuild... The arguments have been rehashed endlessly but basically Buerhle at 35, Dickey at 39, Bautista at 33 missing 50 games a year, Edwin at 31 bad wrist, Lind/Rasmus 1 good year in the last 3, Romero meds not working, Lawrie worse every year BAT MAY NOT PLAY AT 3rd!!!! (well probably will but boy he looks bad lately). Melky, steroid withdrawal + tumour recovery. + need to find a catcher and second basemen. So a lot has to go right for old and/or problematic set. So at the very least it is a logical view to want to rebuild. A view which I (among others hold). Since a rebuild is politically impossilbe (All-In!!!!) we are forced to speculate on moves that we don't truly believe in, but are the moves that one would make when your Boss says f***in' do this or your fired... kind of thing. So we can't do what we believe in so what then?? Improve on the margins?? Not gonna help. Sell off the remaining prospects for players with enough upside that if they find their upside and god forbid a million things go right... then PLAYOFFS!!! Weird game we are playing here.

The right direction is to do very little. Possibly explore a Rasmus trade, maybe an EE trade. Maybe even a Buerhle trade. Maybe trade Lind. For 2014 award rotation spots to Morrow, Happ, Romero, hope they build some value. Make Kawasaki the full time second basemen and hope he builds some value. Wait on Dickey and Bautista taking the chance they will rebuild value. At deadline 2014 start trading Bautista, Dickey, Happm, Melky. Romero, Morrow if possible, Reyes, Kawasaki, if they have decent value,. Nail pick 10 and 11 or whatever it is exactly. Redirect all money into international free-agents. Implement a quadruble a policy. For 2014 and 2015 and even 2016 as veterans are traded, and replaced with young players, the young players get full time jobs almost no matter what. After having a full season or two under low pressure conditions then they are evaluated and discarded if needed. Gibby gets to oversee all this, with the promise that in 2017 he gets a good young team. And barring something unforeseen we start adding pieces in 2018. 2017 - if all goes well Grass and 85 wins... 2018 - add peices as needed, after 25 years in the wilderness PLAYOFFS! This won't happen. So we are stuck speculating on the best moves given the management.