Olerud363

Yeah but Bautista was a 7 win guy at 29/30. 4 win guy at 31/32. EE is a 4 win guy at 29/30. Anything from 3.5 to 4.5 would be reasonable for EE 31/32... depending on assumptions one makes about health (especially wrist). If someone has him closer to 3.5 it might be pessimistic but it's not crazy.

You are correct in that a quick glance at fangraphs has Lomo at 1.1/2.1 (Steamer/Oliver), EE at (3.7/4.0) and Price at 3.8/4.5... So it is 1.6,, 3.85, 4.15 for 2014. The point still stands that some series of moves that ended up moving EE for Lomo and Price could work depending on the details.... it could viewed as reasonable depending on scouting reports and other assumptions... it's not as if we are talking EE for Brandon Phillips... the reactionary comments by other posters are out of line.

I always like the fake AA press conferences.... you could generate this mumbo jumbo with a computer script ( "our scout blah blah blah loved blah blah blah skill blah blah blah elite talent blah blah blah that the Beest" ) but I'm not seeing it here... David Price?? Everyone's acting like it's a Brandon Phillips for EE trade being discussed... Under reasonable assumptions one could project DP as 5.0 WAR going forward the next couple of years, EE as 3. Then it all depends exactly how the rest of the talent is reconfigured. I get that if you consider the total cost and the payroll implications maybe it isn't worth it... but again... it isn't like their trading EE for Brandon Phillips.

What the hell is wrong with you?? I personally think there is a good chance EE has allready had his best year. I don't think Logan Morrison has. He's been useless so far but good minor league numbers, not horrible mlb hitting numbers (107 ops +), a guy who could have a nice 26-29. Price is 28. Has allready had a 7 WAR year, could run off a couple of 5s. EE peaked at 4.5 WAR... and might not hit that again. What are you arguing?? That age doesn't matter?? That guys don't peak in their late 20s?? Christ, this is why posts sometimes have to be so long. Yourself, little Gordy Dougy and the spankster are going to always assume the worst about certain posters... so we need to give an essay, talking about aging curves, career WAR, blah, blah, blah, to pre-empt the over-reactionaries like yourself. Price - 5 WAR the next couple of year?? EE - 3.5 WAR assuming a bit of a decline. LoMo - 2 WAR ... if he peaked. The assumption would be LoMo is underrated right now like Chris Davis was... not that he's going to go Chris Davis... but mid 20s guy who hasn't put it together yet.

Obviously we'd have to see exactly what all the parts are and the payroll implications... But if some how EE++ becomes Price and LoMo... the team is younger, possibly better (again depending what the ++ is). Not sure why everyone is going banana's on this. Price and LoMo are atleast <30. What will be better EE 31-34 or LoMo + platoon partner 26-29?? Lot of issues... including the roster spot for a platoon partner. LoMo will probably not ever have the season EE did at 29. LoMo 26 + Price vs EE 32 ?? Should be a debatible topic. \

wtf?? He walked 80 times last year and the year before. Struckout 60 last year. If you want to argue, that based on your advanced models Edwin will decline heavilly... then by all means go for it. But the word never implies events in the past of which we can check. Never had plate discipline means never, as in none of the years that have happened. Edwin clearly had plate discipline in 2012 and 2013.

Chief executive officer by decree of ownership, Tear up the constitution and Roger's list of core values and make your own. King for life, ultimate ruler, master of the house. The team needs this position more than any other. One man in charge. An alpha male that the other dogs sniff. AA needs to live in fear of making a bad trade. The president of the team needs to fear someone. The hitting coach, the manager, the ball boys, the mascot, and everybody else from the office boys to the hotdog vendors to the players need a slightly saber aware master to obey, look up to, worship and serve. The current situation is just shits and giggles, handshakes and haircuts. No one exists in the real world.

The last few years it's been a middle of the pack offense. Average exactly (ussually 6th or 7th in runs because the park boosts it a tad). With players like Lind and Arencibia (and the hitting coach Murphy famously a couple years ago) making stupid comments about dingers and hitting approach.... The stupid comments feed the perception that the organization is filled with buffoons... pull that ball, "on base percentage is over-rated".

I suppose it wasn't executed that well. Legit and interesting question though. Is it JP?? Or is it the Blue jays?? As a couple of people pointed out it will be interesting if JP rebounds with another team... especially if he has an improved k/bb...

For his power to be cut in half he would have to hit 0 homers at home (assuming the ussual 15 on the road). His power may be cut by 10 or 15%. If he is a .300 30 100 with the Yanks he may be .285 26 90 with the Mariners. Just an estimate, but a better estimate then "Power cut in half"

As a rookie J.P. walks 36 times, struck out 133, 2 years later walked 18 and struck out 148. He didn't walk much then lost half his walks anyway. There are 2 possibilities. 1. The organization is retarded -- they gave him what they thought was good instruction. Pull that ball, be aggressive, more aggressive. In this case keeping him wouldn't of helped anyway, because the organization would keep giving him the same stupid advice. J.P. goes somewhere else... if he does improve it might be annother step to finally ending the Beeston Regime. 2. J.P. is retarded -- the advice he got was fine. He's just retarded and wanted more dingers to get chicks. in this case it was the right move to let him go. Either way right move.

His k-bb ratio is about 5.5 to 1. If it is 3-1 same applies. Everyone gets fired. If he strikes out 180 times in 500 at bats, but walks 60... that would say something as well.

It's a good counterpoint. The problem with JP is even worse. Snider's potential (based on minor league numbers and age 21/22 seasons) was still huge. Middle of the order hitter if you project using milb numbers, early mlb numbers, and some development between 23 and 27. J.P. is 28 next year. So he is what he is (not a prospect). With a lot of playing time he could still rack up the rbis. If they spot him right, and he had some luck he could hit .290 with 20 homers in 250 at bats. Those things could happen because anything can happen, lord knows. Doesn't mean it was a bad move to get rid of him.

I would say this type of season is well within JPs reach. His 550 at bat average is .212 .258 .408 with 27 homers and 82 rbis. There is no question he could hit .240 in a given year. There is no question he could have 30 homers and 80 rbis. He couldn't do it every year. That would be his good year, with a lot of playing time in a hitters park. Even with those numbers he wouldn't be a great player when you factor in on base + defense. Maybe a 2 win player.

?? This confuses me. Why is this not a topic?? The poster is bringing up a subject -- Will J.P. Arencibia improve after leaving the Jays? Answer: Almost Certainly. If he hits .230 that will be a big improvement. Will J.P. Arencibia improve enough to make us regret giving up on him?? Answer: Probably not. But he could... If "random personal opinions" are not actual topics then I suggest automating the entire board. It really isn't a message board you guys are looking for. It's an rss feed using mlb trade rumours and a couple of other sites, then a twitter style comment section, with a comment limit of 60 words or less. Send your suggestion to the admins. Ask them to change the software such that users cannot start topic (all topics that the regular crew seems to like can easily be generated using a feed). Then comments on the topics be limited to 60 words.

Interesting. I recall there was some rumor like this around Pujols... that he was 3 or 4 years older then listed. Given recent performance that would make sense.

Well who is "ownership". Who has the power to stop AA?? Who is AAs boss?? Beeston. Who is Beeston's Boss?? I am not even sure Beeston has a boss in the conventional sense. Technically I believe it is some vice president of media or something that sits just below the Rogers CEO. I have posted the actual name and title of Beeston's "boss" before... but I don't see the point anymore of looking it up. Beeston is the only one that can go up to AA and fire him... I really don't think anyone can "fire" Beeston. Beeston is probably just as connected, and established as anyone in Rogers. Guy Lawrence is the CEO now?? Does he have the power to fire Beeston?? I mean Beeston sits on boards of all kinds of crap. This Lawrence guy is going to be in the middle of putting together complicated deals to earn Billions... and he is really going to fire Paul Beeston who he might need as a power play for his deals?? And actually from what I have heard all these morons view AA as a genius. If you know nothing about baseball you can't tell a smart GM from a dumb one. They can all look smart if they can schmooze. Ultimately the situation has a lot in common with the 2008 financial crisis... You get a guy like Guy Lawrence asking about sub prime derivative formulas?? It all ends up being based on hand shakes and hair cuts and schmoozing. The only glimpse of hope is that AA is a bit dumpy... Beeston loves it because Beeston is dumpy... but Maybe Guy Lawrence is ripped... in that case he might interpret AA's flabbiness as weakness and fire AA.

He gave up Hinske for Billy Koch. Koch and Hinske both did good in 2002... Long term the move meant nothing as they both crashed. But if Hinske hadn't of busted up his hand I think he would of had a nicer career and it would of been viewed as a bad move... but anyway point is Beane has valued the "established" closer on occasion.

The difference (on offense) between Peirzynski and Navarra isn't that much. A couple of homers, a couple of doubles and 10 singles per 500 at bats. Pierzynsky is better. Navarra is 7 years younger. They are actually not that different as hitters. Pierzynsky has played longer and been healthier. Navarra doesn't strike out that much... there are reasons to believe his true talent could be closer to 2008/2013 numbers then the crap he put up in between. Overall, given age and total track record I don't see any reason to prefer one over the other. As an outsider it looks like a coin flip.

I was thinking along those lines.... Niekro was phenomonal... a couple of other guys maintained until 45. The record of other famous knuckleballers Niekro - had a year like Dickey's at 38... then rebounded and went on a 6 year run of contending for cy youngs. Hough - very good at 40... decent to 45. Candiotti - best years in mid 30s... done by about 40. Wakefield - nothing special after 40... but lasted until 45.

I tend to agree with you. I'd rather just of kept all the young pictchers and sorted through them, there is an ace and a Samardzija in there somewhere. But Samardzija over Dickey?? Even though Samardzija is 10 years younger, Samardzija's numbers last year were the same as Dickey's... Samar was viewed as doing well, while Dickey's 200 innings of 4.something were viewed as a disaster.

Hutchison and Drabek (assuming health) and even Cecil look as good if not better then Samardzija did 2 years ago... 2 years ago Samardzija was a failed starter with bad minor leage numbers and 5 walks per 9 as a releiver. Out of Hutchison, Drabek, and Cecil there should be a Samardzija. Out of Nolin, Stroman and Sanchez there should be another good starter. Out of Nicolina, Synd, Woj, Henderson Alvarez, there could be more depth and possibly an ace. Ooopsss...

I am 90% sure he meant Sean Nolin, but isn't there also a Kevin Nolan? Haven't heard anything about him lately. If Ryan Goins is worth something I suppose Kevin Nolan could be too. Short stop, old, hit at a+, but not so much at aa, no idea about his defense. Maybe he's been DFA'd at this point. He is old for a prospect.

really?? I've never found this to be the case. I've listened to Yankees fans sing the Canadian anthem and know all the words. I've met KC fans who asked me about the OHL. Boston fans are incredibly smart, Boston is an incredibly smart area (MIT, Harvard, a lot of tech). Yankees fans the same, a lot of Wall street guys, a lot of street smart guys. I remember back on the old board in May or so, some guy kept on suggesting Garrett Jones trade ideas... imagine if you ran the crowd source algorithm on the old board at it's height?? Crowd Source Trade: 10 dogs for Garrett Jones!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Sucks for you guys. I have easier access to Jays games from North Eastern U.S. with mlb package then I do near Toronto. When I travel in Southern Ontario I rarely can see a Jays game from a hotel. Often they have Sportnet or tsn or something but European soccer or some crap is on. Where is the game?? I have no f'n idea. (Keep in mind I have no idea what SN 1-8 or whatever is, last time I lived in Ontario there was TSN and only that). It's amazing. When I travel to Ontario it's like... dang... on the road to Canada, won't be able to see the Jays for a week unless I f around with my IP address and search for streams (which I don't feel like doing want to turn on the TV and find them within 30 seconds). In MA there is NESN, in NY there is YES, there is no situation where you would go on the road to a hotel (in NY/MA) and not have access to a game. It's very simple. Everyone knows where the game is, and if they have cable they get it every day, easily, without confusion, without an extra package. If you don't have cable, you still ussually get a game once a week. I have a friend who refuses to buy cable... still actually uses dial up. And is able to follow his teams (radio) + once a week on TV the old fashioned way. Rogers is evil. It's against the common man. This is why I would never be a lefty and am a Ron Paul righty. Call me crazy but something like Rogers could only exist in Canada... It's a little more laise faire in the states these guys have to serve the common people a little more. And I'm rambling, just because last time I brought this up I had some lefties s*** on me. Cleveland is a dump, Boston is a dump, states sucks. Every time I drive through Toronto I'm attacked by 100 squeegy kids that the wonderful, loving, lefty Canadian system has produced. Squeegy kids and Rogers, that's why I hate lefties. If you want me to convert to Lefty get rid of Rogers and squeegy kids then I will take it a bit more seriously.