Olerud363

And here is how I view AA actually. He did have an outstanding overall plan, but did not have the street cred/balls to implement it no matter what. He ended up at the Mercy of Beeston... regarding Cito, regarding Murphy, regarding "all-in".

I don't know... take someone from this board... take a prospect hound, with a bit of analytics, and a bit of scouting... take a guy who believes in prospects fully and completely. He might do the Halladay trade a bit different... maybe trades Bautista. Does like Oakland As and recycles players into prospects early, trades Romero, Lind, Hill closer to their high (no one is going to sell exactly at the high). Never trades a young player for an older player. Avaiable money goes into the young international players. Or take a guy who recognizes that after 2009 there is still an oppurtunity to contend with Halladay, gets Halladay to stay somehow (fires Cito if he has to), convinces ownership to spend, and goes all in for 2010. More than "experience" just a different overall vision, would take the franchise in very different directions, some of which are obviously much better then what has happened (obviously there are disaster scenarios as well). So it comes to whether someone, with an outstanding overall plan could get up to speed on the technical skills needed quickly enough... Could a guy come from nowhere and have the "street cred" so to say to implement his vision no matter what?? Maybe not... so you get back to issue that you need the 10 years apprenticeship.

It's a lot of work. You can't just say Arencibia, Drabek and Gose for Dickey... make it so. But if you had a your whole life to dedicate to this... every waking hour. You had the resources of interns, scouts, subordinates... etc. You had a huge office with comfy chairs, and lots of white boards, access to propretary scouting and statistical info, a secratary to get you coffee, snacks, an expense card for supper. And again you have every waking hour to dedicate to this?? Can you do it??

OK. So AA has some special skill that makes this happen where guys on this board don't?? That's one of those phony skills, and believing in that is why you get this situation in the first place. Now... beyond a doubt it takes a certain type of personality to negotiate a contract. You need to have the balls, and schmoozing ability to deal with a Boras type. You need a little math. Go to your average high school and find slightly nerdy kids that are well liked, know how to hang with the jocks, know how to get invited to the parties despite being nerdy... those types exist, and there are lots of them. Start with that base. Find some that have balls enough to play baseball (even though they might not be that good, or more they go as far as they can with baseball, until they are (relatively) not that good) and that's what your looking for. That's your base. Get them in College, get them a bit of accounting and/or business, get them selling used cars or some s*** for a while, then get them their mlb internship and go from there. There's an incredible number of people on this earth, and the subfraction that fits the above description is very large, and I am sure describes many on this board. Thinking that AA has some unique skill is what is getting us into this situation. You have a large of people who could do this and need a couple of breaks. It's a lottery to a large extent...

?? Like what ?? There are some people, like myself, who absolutely wouldn't have the temperment, or the political skills or the patience for it, or the scouting skills (which you need a some of). I'd go off on some crazy rant about on base percentage and tell some old scout off... when in reality a little patience and a better understanding of scouting would be needed to look at things from different views. The skills to be able to bring scouts and anatlytics together would be really important, which some people on this board would have. Could you bring someone from the board over "as-is" right now?? No. But there are a lot of people who if they got the right break at age 25, and got an internship, and worked their way up, would be just as good as AA. It is kind of two lucky breaks that are needed... first off you need to get the first internship, or low level job, which you are competing against a bunch of other 25 year old fanatics for... and there is no difference... so it's just luck who gets it. Then after that there is a combination of hard work and some luck to work your way up.

It would be interesting to understand the true dynamic between AA and Beeston. It's rarely mentioned that AA was hired literally less than 48 hours after "clubhouse mutiny". Mutiny occurred, from an "un-named leak". Hill, Wells, and other players confirm the mutiny, but no one really takes responsibility for the leak. There are some rumours it was Riccardi. Then Beeston all of a sudden goes to Baltimore fires Riccardi and installs AA... AAs first month is spent repairing the mutiny and orchestrating the half-assed Cito retirement tour. After that Beeston and AA go to visit Halladay personally. One wonders what was discussed that day. Would Halladay have returned if Cito was let go, and then they went "all-in". In retrospect that would of been a much better time to go all-in. I think AA is smart, but doesn't have a set, can't stand up to Beeston or other personalities, old scouts, etc. He was hired by Beeston, in part, because Beeston needed a guy to smooth over Cito's exit. And that explains everything else that has happened.

Well what actually happened was that Frank Thomas was the DH... Shannon Stewart and Matt Stairs were left fielders. In retrospect those players didn't work out. But going into 2008 it would of been hard to justify replacing Thomas with Bonds... Similiar players at the time, Bonds better, but Thomas seemingly healthier and younger. Stairs and Stewart were coming off very good 2007s and it was also logical to think at the time that a platoon/job share would be as good (defensively, offensively, health wise) as Bonds. Then it all fell apart and went real bad to the point where Thomas had to be released, Cito Gaston dug up from florida or wheverever, Stewart released, and at that point the season was almost 1/2 over anyway and they wanted to play Adam Lind. At the moment Thomas was released (after a fight with Gibbons) it was only late April, so it may have sense to dig up Bonds at that point. Possibly could of helped. I think the thinking was that after releasing one big, old guy because of decline/speed/lack of position the last thing they wanted was to replace him with another big old guy with the same problems... not saying it was right, just that was the thinking. If there ever was a time for Cito Gaston, it may have been at the beginning of 2008, not the middle. Sign Bonds for left, get Gaston to manage, he would have never-ending faith in the old coots and there wouldn't of been the Thomas vs. Gibby controversy, and maybe just maybe Cito could of got good hitting years out of Bonds/Thomas and been senile enough to ignore the defense/attitude/etc. It might of worked. In my mind that is the only possible use of Cito Gaston, show faith in 2 real old guys who get on base (If guys are "meant" to get on base, Cito lets them get on base (McGriff, Delgado, Bautista)).

I would like to be able to say that but can't. You, Georgia Peach, some red sox fans I know called it. I was excited about the moves, thought it would work. I will have a hard time getting excited about a blue jay team for... a decade probably.

Just for the novely of it... or do you think the Jays management needs to see the .198 or whatever it is on the year end stats?? Just to really drive home the point that they played a historically bad player for 140 games. You know, if they see the .198 they rethink how they are evaluating talent. If it's .205.. then JP is just a 20 homer catcher, maybe they replace him, but no deep discussions on talent evaluation.

Kawasaki's game winning hit against the Os... I have never seen a better live baseball game and I've seen a lot. It was more emotional then Carter's 93 homer... (not more emotional then Alomar's against the As in 92). When Carter hit that home run it was... exciting... but I think a lot of people had allready pencilled in a Jays world series win when Mitch Williams came in and obviously had no control.... So it was inevitable. It was going to end on a walk... or a Mitch Williams wild pitch. Or some other poor reliever would come in and give up a sac fly after Mitch just made an ungodly mess... That game was over as soon as we saw Mitch throw a couple pitches.

I'll keep posting this until people get it through their thick skulls I am in NO way claiming Farrell is worth x amount of wins. I am claiming Farrell is a compotent, good person, who would of been an assett to the blue jays, but did not fit in, because his core beliefs were opposed to Beestons and unlike AA he wouldn't change or fake stupidity for the boss. Previous post explaining my view on Farrell.... "Anyway my point about Farrell isn't that he added a million wins to the red sox... it is more that his success is an indicator of the incredible disfunction in blue-jay land. Say a mid-manager works at Research in Motion. Call him Bud. By all accounts Bud's smart guy. Suppose to be an up and comer but argues a bit with RIM upper management. Then all of a sudden they allow him to go to Motorola and work on Android phones. RIM says "no big deal, this guy wasn't a team player, we're the s*** and we got the new BlackBerry 17 or whatever s*** coming", Then next thing you know RIM is laying off everybody and Android phones are all the rage. Then Bud says that RIM didn't understand how to develop the business of smart phones in the first place. Does it mean that Bud was responible for the Android phone's sucess?? Of course not. It means Bud was an intelligent, good guy who reconized disfunction and wanted to be with like minded winners. He wanted to move on so he could work with competent collegues. Motorola wanted him because he was competent. They are both great. But RIM is just sewage."

Yeah... and remember when Adam Lind blew the lid of all that in Spring Training. Basically "Yeah Farrell wanted us to take pitches but Murph said swing at it all boys... on base percentage is for losers." Then remember how mad AA got?? That said it all right there. Farrell left because he was given an idiot hitting coach, and no one would listen to him about hitting approach (just an old Pitcher, doesn't know what hes talking about). AA knows there was much more to Farrell leaving then "Dream Job". AA wanted Lind to shut up before people started thinking about it to much.

OK yes. You guys win. Farrell sucks. Red Sox suck. Bill James sucks. Long live Beeston. Long live J.P. Arencibia. Jays will win it all next year.... What I was taught was to give deep, sincere respect to those who are successful. Praise them, even if they are your enemy. When you are down keep your mouth shut and compliment your rival. When you are down observe those who are up. Make notes. Respect them. Honor them. But you guys seem to think Farrell and the Red Sox are toilet cleaners... only by respecting and learning from Farrell and the Red Sox will the Blue Jays ever get anywhere,.

I was thinking of giving Farrell a conservative 2 WAR... but decided against it cause you guys would yap... Anyway my point about Farrell isn't that he added a million wins to the red sox... it is more that his success is an indicator of the incredible disfunction in blue-jay land. Say a mid-manager works at Research in Motion. Call him Bud. By all accounts Bud's smart guy. Suppose to be an up and comer but argues a bit with RIM upper management. Then all of a sudden they allow him to go to Motorola and work on Android phones. RIM says "no big deal, this guy wasn't a team player, we're the s*** and we got the new BlackBerry 17 or whatever s*** coming", Then next thing you know RIM is laying off everybody and Android phones are all the rage. Then Bud says that RIM didn't understand how to develop the business of smart phones in the first place. Does it mean that Bud was responible for the Android phone's sucess?? Of course not. It means Bud was an intelligent, good guy who reconized disfunction and wanted to be with like minded winners. He wanted to move on so he could work with competent collegues. Motorola wanted him because he was competent. They are both great. But RIM is just sewage.

Are you kidding me?? How did I miss this?? Carpenter (1.7 WAR) + Gomes (3.5 WAR) and John Farrell for Esmil Rogers (1) WAR So according to the WAR we deduct -4 WARs from the Toronto Blue Jays and give the Boston Red Sox the A.L. manager of the year.

How old is the player?? What is their contract and Salary?? What is their 3 year record (including minor league performance), 5 year, 10 year (if it goes back that far)?? What do the "compatent" scouts say about the player in the context of the WAR?? Is their any reason why the WAR could be wrong?? For example is Gomes really worth 3.5 wins in half a season or is it a quirk of the formula?? Ideally I would have access to scouts, young, intelligent and modern enought to help look at the WAR numbers and give insight to why they could be off. Is the 3 WAR player going the other way Brett Lawrie (3 year average of about 3 WAR) or Melky Cabrerra type (also a 3 year average of 3 WAR)?? I think the answer is NO. It is hard to find a 3 WAR player that I'd trade for him. Unless you consider Melky 3 WAR (3 year average) or it's another player that came out of no where.

I look at it this way... if a team can find a diamond in the rough like Gomes... give him the right amount of playing time, give him the right instruction, develop him, get him in the right state of mind to perform at the upper limit of his alility, then it likely reflects many good things about that organization. So Gomes and Cleveland do good together, because right now they have good leadership. If a team takes a guy like Arencibia, gives him to much playing time, inflates his ego, ignores huge weaknesses, gets him in the wrong state of mind (doesn't understand his weaknesses like on base percentage), he starts out bad, and then somehow gets worse every year... then that likely reflects many bad things about that organization. These guys are more like Canaries. Or a marker like blood pressure. They are a sign of the health of the organiztion.

But who will have higher career bbrefWAR?? Gomes or J.P.?? J.P so far 3.0 in 371 games Yan so far 3.4 119 games Yan Gomes this year - more WAR then Reyes 1.9 more WAR then Dickey 1.6 more WAR then Bhuerle 2.1 more WAR then Johnson -1.6 more WAR then Melky Cabrerra -0.2 more WAR then Thole -0.8 More WAR then Reyes + Dickey + Johnson + Melky Cabrerra + Thole + Cabrerra

Yan Gomes has amassed more WAR in this season, in 77 games then J.P. Arencibia has in his putrid 370 game career... So first off -- IF Yan Gomes was really this good, then it's a devastating loss, a franchise changing loss. Yan Gomes is basically playing at an all star level. He would be by far the best player on the Blue Jays if he kept this up for 140 games.... All star catcher. So right away as experienced fans we mentally deduct a few points for "fluke", and assume the WAR is a little off here (Yan Gomes 3.4 wins in 77 games??????). But still... He's played pretty f***ing good for 77 games. My main problem with this is that isn't AA the ninja and his superscouts suppose to see what other's can't?? I mean aren't they suppose to find these under the radar guys that have potential that no one sees?? And I'm fine with "nobody could see it coming"... but if nobody can see these things coming what is the purpose of superscouts??

You guys are in a bit of a bubble and an echo chamber when it comes to how the rest of the world views the Blue Jays organization. I am not a red sox fan, just exposed to their media and fans. Also exposed to the Yankee world. Blue Jays are viewed are sort of small minded, not to bright, greedy, kind of despicable people. Wasn't always this way. Pat Gillick is viewed as a great guy. When there is something like the 2009 club house rebellion, the rest of baseball doesn't accept Beeston's version. That happened for a reason and people involved, coaches, players, who are all now elsewhere talk. If you listen closely around what other media says one senses a sort of vile vibe around the Blue Jays. Many expected their moves to fail and are happy about it... because they don't like the Blue Jays and they way they treat the good people in the game (Gillick, Farrell, Butterfield etc.).

Avilles isn't much of an upgrade on Boni or Maicer... Kind of redundant with Kawasaki there as well to fill that role... and there not even being enough room for Kawasake. Losing Yan Gomes isn't a huge deal... it's more throwing Yan Gomes away, but giving J.P. Arencibia 1500 plate appearance... If your thinking is Yan Gomes ain't the real deal, or any deal, that same thought process should lead one to avoid giving so much playing time to Arencibia. The fact that Gomes was viewed as litter, and Arencibia viewed as a rising star just shows a completely nonsensical thought process in the organization.

The Farrell model. All it does is adjust according to John Farrell's world view. Only slightly. Any player who is brought up by the blue jays will perform 5% less then expected, any player who is traded from the Blue Jays will play 5% better then expected. Not saying it IS true. Saying that if Farrell's world view is true we would expect players to disappoint as blue jays but surprise when they move to other teams. So now we can't even state what would happen if Farrell is right????? In the context that Farrell is correct, then Yan Gomes is performing exactly as expected. I am not saying Farrell is correct. I am saying that the performance of Yan Gomes makes perfect sense in a world where John Farrell is a correct. It is a model. You can have your own model of the world. Like the Blue Jays will win 100 next year because Beeston's IQ is 139. Not saying your model is correct. But we can test it, wait and see if the Blue Jays win 100 next year. You can argue with my Farrell model fairly easily. For example bring up Travis Snider, then I'd bring up Hill, then we'd go back and forth a bit, until we figured out if there's any truth to the model.

This here.... this is it. This is the issue. So obviously Beane and/or Friedman may not be dying to come and take over the Blue Jays. That's the issue. That is everything. So why are they not dying to take over the Blue Jays?? Because they hate Canada?? No. I don't think so. It would be because of the upper management, the management level above AA. If AA was the problem then the fix would be simple. Get the Beest to put on the charm and get Beane/Friedman or that kind of talent over here. But here is the issue. 1. The Beest doesn't realize that these kind of people are really, really, good. He wouldn't recognize real good GM material. 2. Real good GM material would immediately recognize the Beest is someone to keep very, very, very far away from. 3. The Beest would demand that real good GM material "play nice" with his cronies... Keep the on base percentage below .320, I don't want to piss off Cito or Murph. My old friend "insert old drunk scout's name here" says that Japanese guy won't adjust to the majors... Don't bid to high on this Darvish fellow, will save the money for some good stuff next year. 4. The only people that would take the job are guys like AA... willing to sell out their core beliefs to please the Beest and get a dream job. It's a common theme. Wilner, Stoeten, AA all selling out what they really believe for "Dream Job". Please the Beest and all that you desire shall be yours.

He didn't come out of no where. He had slightly better minor league numbers then J.P. Arencibia. For whatever reasons the dogma that he had "a hole in his swing", "aaaa player", blah, blah, blah, caught on. J.P. minor league numbers - .275 .319 .507 Gomes minor league number - .287 .345 .484 Yan had a better k/bb ratio. Possible AL manager of the year John Farrel says the Blue Jays can't develop players. So here is a simple model. Call it the Farrell model. I don't care if you don't like Farrell we'll make a model and see if it predicts the future or not. Farrel Model - Farrell says the Blue Jays can't develop players... so when a player leaves give him a little bonus for being with a better organization, when a player stays subtract a little for being exposed to the cesspool that is the Toronto Blue Jays. This model predicts Yan gomes to hit .255 .315 .403 in the majors, J.P. to hit .233 .293 .420 in the majors. Yan is only overperforming slightly in the context of his minor league numbers and move to a better organization.

If jays were an american team I'd suggest we raise some money for a Lawyer to help JPA sue Beeston. Premise: Paul Beeston has repeatedly rehired bad employees such as Cito Gaston, Duane Murphy, etc. who have been on record as stating on base percentage is over-rated and homerrzzz and rbizzzz are what counts. JPA, an young empoyee of Beeston's has recently been on record (this May I beleive) with very similiar statements. 3 months later JPAs career is in jepoardy. He has not developed the skills to get on base, and his homerrzz and ribizzz alone are not sustaining his career. JPA may be out of baseball soon. The advice from Gaston and Murphy has cost JPA 10s of millions of dollars. We hold Paul Beeston responsible for this as he was warned about Gaston and Murphy in many memos and meetings from 2009-2011. OK. Before you go nuts keep in mind Beeston is innocent until proven guilty. Many issues will be examined in the trial. Beeston in the end could come out as a saintly, godly, righteous dude... we don't know. It depends how the trial goes. We will examine the entire history of the Blue Jays. Beeston's Lawyers will argue Beeston and Gaston are brilliant baseball men responsible for 92/93.. JP's lawyers will bring out Pat Gillick and ask him many important questions. Such as what happened after 91?? Did Gillick ever want to fire Gaston?? Why?? What has Gillick Accomplished since 92/93?? What has Beeston accomplished since then?? What about Gaston?? Beeston;'s Lawyers will argue Gaston has a positive effect on the players, he will argue Gaston hardly overlapped with J.P. JPs lawyers will look into clubhouse mutiny of 2009. Aaron Hill will be brought to the stand and asked about his Blue Jays experience vs. Arizona. We will examine Murphy and where he got his ideas about hitting from. We will look closely at whether Murphy has and/or still is influencing J.P. JPs lawyers will have to prove Beeston is the critical guy in some of these hiring decisions. AA will be brought onto the stand and forced to reveal discussions regarding Gaston and/or Murhpies hiring/retiriring/firing. Beeston may very well be innocent. But it would be a fascinating trial.