Olerud363

You're table didn't come through right. Gonzales and Haren were allready 4 WAR players before Oakland traded them?? Correct?? And Haren steped it up a bit... Gonzales stayed about the same but cranked out a lot of wins last year. Parker/Griffin are a step below that. It's always a risk, I guess I am mentally doing quick approximations. Players peak at 27. These guys are at a 2.5 WAR or so... heck maybe they can hit 4.0 for 26/27. Reality is more complicated.

The reality is we have AA and the Beest. So the smartest thing may not be feasible. So we're stuck looking at the least dumb thing they could do. Now it depends on how dumb AA really is. If he's dumb enough to trade a package with Stroman/Nolin/Sanchez for rif-raf... then we immediately hope he targets a true ace or a Griffin/Parker type instead... some upside. If he's just searching for guys he can get for nothing... then of course. Go for that.

That's why I suggest Parker and Griffin. These guys are 25 or so. Dan Haren, Gio Gonzales, provided good value when aqcuired at that age. Cahill not as much. But if there are no true aces available why not grab a 25 year old who could be headed for his best 2 years??

I would personally prefer we just stick with our depth. The problem I see with Cahill/Anderson/McCarthy is that it basically doesn't have any advantage over Morrow/Johnson/Happ/Rogers/Redmond/Drabek/Hutch/Stroman/Nolin/Sanchez blah, blah, blah,. I guess I see more potential upside in going with our depth, then would be in Cahill/Anderson/McCarthy. Now if you can grab a couple of those guys without giving up any thing of value. OK. I guess I would see Jarod Parker and Griffin especially being a step above... where you might hit a 4 WAR guy, for their 26/27 seasons (while giving Billy Beane a 5 WAR guy for 2016). So we lose in the end as always. But it's like the lesser of two evils. Who the hell knows what AA would give up for Cahill.

http://blogs.thescore.com/djf/2013/09/24/aas-quest-for-pitchers-creative-use-of-payroll-space-and-young-arms-as-trade-chips/ http://www.thestar.com/sports/bluejays/2013/09/25/blue_jays_gm_says_upgrade_behind_plate_needed.html# AA needs starters. Stoeten suggests McCarthy and Cahill and Brett Anderson?? The starting rotation has Dickey (good bounce back candidate) and Buerhle. Beyond that is Morrow, Romero, Drabek, Redmond, Rogers, Hutchison, Nolin, Stroman, J.A. Happ... possibly even Josh Johnson, possibly even Aaron Sanchez by June. Admittedly Stoeten doesn't advocate giving up a lot for McCarthy/Cahill/Anderson... and AA holds his cards tight. But here are some thoughts. 1. Rogers center is a slight hitters park so the pitching looks a tad worse then it really is, the hitting a tad better. OPS+ is 98, ERA+ is 96. Really both are at the 75 win level or so. 2. Last year AA made the mistake of projecting 2012 performances forward too optimistically... Projecting Dickey, Johnson, Morrow, Buerle too optimistically based on 2012 stats. Is he making the same mistake in the opposite direction? At this point we don't care about Dickey, Johnson, Buerhle, Morrow 2013... we care about projected 2014 making reasonable assumptions about health. 3. Oakland allready traded Cahill to get younger and turned him into Jarrod Parker. Oakland didn't think McCarthy was worth bringing back, and now they might not bring back Anderson. So Stoeten is advocating taking guys that one of the best franchise in baseball has all ready discarded. In fact Oakland's strategy is to cycle these guys out in their mid 20s, for young 20s guys. But Stoeten wants us to bring them in 2 or 3 years after Oakland cycled them out???? Now Stoeten does see the grey in the situation... "Cahill isn't that great". So Oakland turned Cahill into Jarod Parker... and now we are going after Cahill?? An entire cycle later?? If we don't have the guts to trust Nolin, Stroman, Sanchez and a all the other depth... and Stroman is where Parker was a couple years ago, Sanchez is where Cahill was 5 or 6 years ago, Instead of leaping ahead to Cahill 2014... let's give Billy Beane a call. Beane likes to cycle these guys out early. Would it make sense to ask him about Giffin, Parker, Malone?? Get one of these guys just after Beane discards him... instead of a cycle later?? What do you scout-hounds think about those three and the chance of acquiring one with some of our depth/prospects?? Personally I'd rather just trust our depth... but if AA is hell-bound for a starter I'd call Billy Beane. He's made those types of trades before, good 24 year old starter for some younger starters.

And a good front office, a Billy Beane led front office, should think in terms of buying wins. This front office needs to just think in terms of runs scored and runs against. If they think in terms of wins it will quickly degrade... the old drunk scouts will dominate the converstation "wins.. .that makes sense... good to see you eggheads come around... now we need a guy who can drive in 100, and a guy like Jack Morris who knows how to win.... you eggheads aren't so bad after all." So this front office... needs to just think in terms of runs scored and runs against. If they make a team that scores 900 and give up 775, bad defensive team but crazy on offense. wonderful... if they make a team that scores 650 and gives up 550... great. If they make a team that scores 734 and gives up 627... hey that's good too. If they make a team that scores 875 and gives up 625... probably no wild card race, just division domination. They need a room full of white boards. They need AA and a couple of eggheads to lock themselves in there for a while... have geeky arguments.... get Zaun in there actually, teach 'em how to grow a set. Then they come out and have an open ear to what the scouts say, but don't let any dogma dominate.

The board should start grooming kids for GM... lot of luck involved so we'd need 10 or more lottery tickets. Train them for their first internship in a few years, then go from there. Since you have no work ethic you will have to be groomed for Beeston's President position. "Who is Gordie Dougie?? Why is he president of the Toronto Blue Jays?? Does he ever show up for work??" It will be like the Bilderburg group. Shadowy board members will really be in control. Maybe we could get the real Bilderburg group involved. Argue that the kids in Canada are going to rebel unless they get some winning sports teams to distract them.

That's the whole point of the thread. If that part makes sense, the whole thread should make sense. AA "claims" he cares... and offers some fluff. But in reality he's full of it. He doesn't care. He claims the Jays have dynamic bats that other teams don't have?? Huhhh?? What other teams don't have dynamic bats?? Yeah, Bautista, Reyes, EE... good hitters. But every teams 3 best hitters are pretty good. Lind and Colby "dynamic bats"?? Maybe if don't look at 2011/2012. Jays are middle of the pack in offense... so we are average in runs but have "dynamic bats"?? Defensively we are fine, cause we got, you know Colby, Brett, Reyes, and Bautista... say again?? Reyes and Bautista?? 31 and 33 next year?? With negative defensive value as measured by most systems?? You can't just say you "care". You don't have to reveal all your cards. But caring would mean showing a thoughtful mindset, an appreciation of advanced stats, using words like on base percentage, indicating you know that there are analytical systems that measure defense. Indicating you understand the concept of up and down, and you can't just assume we have "dynamic bats" because we got Bautista (awesome 2011), EE (awesome 2012), Lind (good 2013), Rasmus (good 2013).... sure if THEY all had good years in the same year... great. But this won't happen, and measured by 3 year averages, or runs scored... the Jays don't have dynamic bats, at least not any more dynamic than other teams. So AA isn't speaking to us... he's speaking to suits, to casuals, and to the ultimate casual suit, Paul Beeston. And that's the point of this thread. AA does not care about the fans, he cares about suits, people in power who employee him, just blowing hot air for them, he could care less about real fans.

So all those guys, basically left field, second and catcher are about 5 below. If you could replace them by good players there would a 15 win swing. But it's not worth it for AA to even mention this. Yeah other s*** will go wrong, but get decent production out of 2nd/catcher/left, minimize the other s*** that goes wrong and things look good on offense. (Admittedly Melky might rebound... but I think they need to give the left field job to someone else. Acquire another full time outfielder, good hitter, and name Melky as the fourth outfielder. If Melky is healthy there will be plenty of playing time for him given Bautista/EE/Lind (platoon)/Rasmus will have some s*** happen to them.)

Someone else brought up the most telling stat, Zaun has more WAR in 2005 then JP does in his career.

A good point. I guess there are things I'd like to hear in general terms. To contend they need "about" 750 runs, and give up 650. This year it will be something like 700 and 750. So to contend they need to get 50 runs better on offense, 75 better on pitching, and 25 better on defense. Or they could get 100 better on offense, 25 better on pitching and 25 better on defense. That might work to. Or 0 better on offense, 100 better in pitching 25 better on defense. There is more than one way to skin a cat. He didn't throw Morrow under the bus to address the pitching, and he wouldn't have to throw JP under the bus to address this... here is what he should of said in his AA way... "And going back to 2010, we've had dramatic cases of underproduction... compared to what was expected. I mean Aaron Hill in 2011... or Bonifacio this year... and both those guys, small sample size with Bonifacio, rebounded with another team... so we have to look at it... we can't carry a .250 on base percentage at a position... we want everybody above .300 ideally, so we look at this, what is it?? luck?? or something else?? Our player selection process?? Instruction?? Not everybody is going to be an allstar, or a moneyballer or walk 100 times or whatever, but there's a minimum level of competence needed on a contending team, and we have to make sure one way or another we get that from all positions."

"I am, and will always be, brutally honest until the Rogers network instructs me not to be." I am sure if Rogers (who actually does it?? The Beest) had to sit down Zaun for a nice little chat, as they did Wilner in 2010... the result would be different. Zaun would quit, get a job somewhere else and slam the Beest like the Beest has never been slammed before. The Beest knows who he can mess with, and who he can't. Thus Zaun's opinions (unlike Wilner's or even AAs) are his, and his alone. Wrong or right, crazy or sane, smart or dumb, what Zaun says is Zaun's. Stoeten, Wilner, AA... fat flabby men, saying what they think other fat flabby men want them to say, in order they get further success, or maintain what power/prestige/lifestyle they have.

The point of it, I think, is that there is this huge disconnection between AA and the fans. AA speaks to "Beeston" like fans. "Sorry boys, I didn't get you enough starting pittchers. Remeber when we had Jack Morris and Dave Stewart?? I'll do it this winter boys, drink your Labatts, I mean Bud, and watch the leafs.... I'll get to work this winter and get you some starting pitching. I feel for you, I am you, you are me. I love you. Lets all be friends." However AA (and the organization) refuse to engage the baseball prospectus type personalities and fans. Not participating in that event was so telling. The fans are going on and on about Arencibia... but the front office is replying "we hear you. we're working on getting starters"... Fans - "We hate Arencibia, he's a tool, his on base percentage is .228 or something," AA - "I listen to you because I love you. Now sit tight I will get you some starters" Fans - "Huhhh?? Yeah, starters could help. But I've just been going on about Arencibia and the second basemen. They have like a .240 combined on base percentage. If you look at OPS+ for all positions, everything is OK, left field a little weak, but OK you say Melky's tumour removal will help, but second and catcher are dramatically low (50s!)... now what about improving these positions.... it might be a route to a pretty good offense!" AA - "Yes we hear you on that. We love the fans. We love the little people and we're going to get you the starting pitchers you deserve!" Fans - "OK... ummm. You're not listening are you?? ArencibiaLine... on base percentage??" AA - "Bad words! Bad Words! Stop insulting Cito. If you don't behave we won't get you your starters!"

I believe Richard Griffin compared him to Posey. The only difference being that Posey has won a couple of rings. The 140 points (yes that is correct 140 points!) of on base percentage does not matter. For a reporter to say this. To say that Posey and Arencibia are the same except for rings... it means there is deep, incredibly irreparable problems in the larger Blue Jay eco system. There needs to be a deep and final house cleaning. Fire everybody. Fire Beeston, Fire AA, Fire Griffin, Fire Wilner, Fire the travelling the secratary, the ball boys, the grounds crew, Fire Stoeten, Fire me, Fire you. Fire everybody over the age of 25 including all the fans. Anybody under 25 needs to pass an IQ test, the SAT, a Bill James test, and a scouting test. . And actually Zaun, and Hayhurst can stay, along with the base of fans who passed the above mentioned test, they rebuild over 15 years.

I don't disagree... but I looked at this a little closer a while ago... and it worked out that we could improve by about 20 wins if the pitching was elite, 5 wins if the defense was elite, and 15 wins if the offense was elite. So if everything is elite we could win 115 (like the 1998 Yankees, or 2001 Mariners). That isn't going to happen. But there are multiple ways to improve.... If you asked any fan on here what would they rather do... get two starting pitchers and keep Arencibia and Izturus/Goins at second... or replace Arencibia and get a good second basement??? I think the answer would be replace Arencibia/get a second basemen.... unless the two starting pitchers were really, really good. There are young players that could start (Hutchison, Drabek, Nolin, Stroman, Redmond), guys coming back from injury (Morrow, Happ). There is some depth. Does that exist at catcher/second?? Say you had the opportunity to get Chase Utley (Lawrie to second), Brian McCann, and Carlos Beltran. There are some problems, can Lawrie handle second?, can you work out enough playing time with the extra outfielders (yes, there will be injuries, Lind needs to be platooned at DH). So that's an option. Then there is another option where you get two starting pitchers?? Which one is better?? Depends on who the two starting pitchers are. So that's why I have a problem with what AA said. Instead of just saying, "the team is weak in a number of areas, we need to add 20 wins, and we'll be looking at every possible avenue to add wins", he identified one area (starting pitching) which is a weakness, but failed to consider other weaknesses, especially the ones the fans are concerned about (ArencibiaLine).

That's why the phrase "dynamic bats" really got to me. It's the same thing we heard last year, before all this began. That (despite 73 wins) the core was special and they were going to contend. So now we have dynamic bats. I have money ball on in the background and I hear Peter Brand saying "Don't acquire players, acuire wins, that means you need to acquire runs". Yes starting pitching would be great if that's the best opportunity to increase the run differential. There is also an obvious oppurtunity to dramatically increase run differential by getting new players at catcher and second and left. Instead of just assuming Melky is going to majically rebound from tumour and steroid withdrawal, get another fulltime outfielder. I know a real good player isn't going to sign without being promised a job, so give this guy a job and announce Melky is the fourth outfielder. There are 486 outfield games and with injuries there will be lots of playing time for Melky. Just don't assume the "dynamic bats" are all going to be healthy and performing.

I believe the bbref one has him at 0.4 2012 (blue jays) and 0.4 this year.... You probably are using fan graphs or something?? I never have figured out why they are so different. I'd use fangraphs (if it is better) but if it is just sort of random (we don't really know how to measure player to precision of .5 a win) I'll stick with bbref.

My main topics of musings are on base percentage and the greatness of John Farrell. Both of which I had in one running thread which people (justifiably) got tired of. You're generation is lucky. I've talked about this before I know, but imagine at your age, all you are exposed to is winning. Think of standing on Young Street on October 23rd 1993 into the early morning of the 24th, you are 18 years old. The dawn of the internet age is upon you. Your generation will have everything. Your team... is the best franchise in baseball. Olerud is 25, Alomar is 25, Hentgen and Guzman are about that age too... Green, Delgado, Gonzales are all over the top prospect lists. We thought it would last for ever. 20 years in the wilderness later, 2 major-major financial crisis, mass unemployment, the godamn internet is mainly used for foolishness... and basically no one under 30 remembers any different.

?? Eric Thames ?? I am not sure if I was ever to high on him. I probably was. Was I wrong?? ... well sure. I still think it's important to give these guys 600 plate appearances in a season and see what you have. Thames 2012 very similar to Lind 2007, Thames 2011 similar to Lind 2008... crazy similiar. Thames also similar to Garrett Jones. Thames never got a chance for a 600 at bat season. Lind did and got 20 million and a 6 or 7 year career out of it. Same with Garrett Jones. So is it a big deal we missed out on a Garrett Jones and got a 1/2 win reliever instead?? Doesn't really matter either way. Can't remember being big on Thames, but I probably was. Now if you want to point out my past mistakes... Snider, T. I am sure I predicted the sky for him, and whined like a bitch (more than ussual) when he got traded.

So officially I am on board with fire AA. Latest article is one of the worst things I've ever read. http://sports.nationalpost.com/2013/09/20/why-alex-anthopoulos-feels-guilty-about-the-blue-jays-season/ AA, the fat phony, cries fake ninja tears, says he feels for the fans. Maybe AA feels for casual bob in etiboke who likes to watch JP Arencibia hit homeruns but he doesn't give a s*** at all for the real fans. I wish he would just shut the F up. First off, he NEVER, ever uses the word on base percentage. Dirtyy word. If he uses it I suspect Beeston would fire him for disrespecting Cito and Murph. Secondly he doesn't talk at all about frying the farm. Even to say "I wish I hadn't blew the farm last year, and could do it over on better trades this year". So he gives this long winded speech on all that is wrong and it comes down to Starting pitching. OK. That's a big, big part of it. But this season has nothing to do with giving a .230 on base percentage player 450 at bats?? It has nothing to do with playing second basebmen with a .250 on base percentage? Of course it doesn't. Because the Toronto Blue Jays have dynamic bats produced by geniuses Cito Gaston and Dwayne Murphy. What Dynamic bats are those?? Are we talking the 33 year old who's played an average of 105 games the last 2 years? The 31 year old coming off of wrist surgery?? Lind and Rasmus of recent sub .300 on base percentages who can't hit lefties?? Are we talking about Lawrie who has regressed every season and can't play 140 games anyway?? Dynamic bats folks. We got 'em. Other teams don't. Anyway, starting pitching is important. I agree with that. Not important enough to make a serious push for Yu Darvish. Not important enough to make a serious push for that other Japanese guy. Just important enough to use as an excuse to other suits. Anyway either AA is incredibly out of touch with the fans... or he's purposely rubbing it in. What are the fans talking about?? ArencibiaLine... and AA can't even throw us a bone like "...and obviously there are a couple of positions that had low on base percentages, and we'd like to improve on that." What a bunch of baloney from an awful man. He hates the fans. If he liked the fans he'd get someone to go to the baseball prospectus event. Maybe even acknowledge the Arencia Line as a very humble apology for what has happened. But no... AA only cares about one "casual" fan, the ultimate, stupid casual fan, Paul Beeston.

It's not the safest bet in the world the Jays will be better. The safest bet in the world is that the sun will come up tommorow. 99.99999999999999% or so. A safe bit is that society will exist tomorrow, 99.999 or so (assuming idiots like Beeston continue to prosper society will likely collapse in the next 100 years, so every day there is about a 1/400000 or so chance of humanity ending, but still tomorrow will probably come, the sun will rise, more than likely humans will still be here). That the blue jays will be better next year?? 60% chance maybe. In terms of all the bets possible in the world?? It is in the 60th percentile of safeness. The infielders, Lawrie, Reyes, EE, and mr. X played an average of about 110 games. It will be somewhere between 100 and 120 next year. There will be not be a significant difference in games played by infielders. Your claim that Lawrie and Reyes will not miss half the season may be true... they didn't miss half the season this year... in the end they will have missed about 40% of the season. Next year they may play more, but EE may play less coming off of a bumb wrist. Or mr. X.. the unknown second basemen may miss a lot of time. I don't know. The chances the Dickey, Buerhle, Morrow, Mr. Y. and Mr. Z will be better then this year?? I don't know. We're betting on a 35 and 39 year old to pitch 200 innings, Morrow to rebound and pitch?? What 150 innings?? He's only done that once. And for Blue Jays management to somehow find the right Mr. Y. and Mr. Z. And even if they are all healthy so what. These guys all have league average ERAs. Then we have an outfield of Bautista, Rasmus, and Melky. They average about 110 games a year over the last 2 years. So next year what will it be?? Probably about 110. I see no reason for the average games played, or the average performance of the starters, or the average health and performance of the bullpen to change. Next year will be different set of occurences. Maybe Lawrie will play 150 and be an all star but Bautista has back problems and plays 25 games. Maybe Reyes rebounds but Lind goes back to .290 on base percentage Lind. Maybe Dickey contends for another Cy Young but Buehle finally suffers an injury and the bullpen explodes health and performance wise. The trends of injuries, underperformance and "bad luck" will continue, because they are not random but reflect an horrible front office acquiring elderly, declining players. The Toronto Blue Jays will win 79 games next year, they will get the 14th overall pick, some injury s*** will happen, some prospects will dissapoint, Gibby will get fired (undeservedly), AA won't, Beeston will start formulating his own "retirement plan". This iteration of the Toronto Blue Jays has ended. It is over. The next 2 or 3 year are only there to let Paul Beeston get out "gracefully". More than likely part of that "graceful exit" will be putting AA in as president. So until about 2015 it's a holding pattern, with AA as president and a new GM the next rebuild starts then.

great work.

Short and sweet. This team is beyond f***ed. We sold the farm system to get f***ed. We made a deal witih the devil, sold our soul, and didn't even get a day of contention. #beestly, #wearef***ed.

Why wouldn't the Jays have three years in a row with endless injuries?? You're assuming the injuries are a fluke. Lawrie is all of a sudden going to stay healthy?? Morrow?? Bautista at 33?? EE with with a history of wrist injuries will be healthy at 31?? Reyes with his history will be healthy?? Cecil, Janssen, and Delabar with their histories will be healthy?? Romero with his historic breakdown will be healthy?? Lind with a history of back problems will be healthy?? Rasmus?? We have absolutely nothing at 2nd and catcher and we are going to be able to find players here who are both good and healthy?? Next year there will be a lot of injuries, I don't know who will get hit but a subgroup of the above group will be injured and unproductive. The Blue Jays have no players playing 150 games this year. Lind will probably end up being the leader with 144 games (and a history of back problems), EE with 142 season ended by wrist surgery, then JP at 140 with a .190 average and .220something on base percentage. Those are the healthy guys. Expecting that crew to be healthy is beyond ridiculous. Next year there will be injuries. It's not luck, it's the type of players that we build around.

Watch out. Brian Burke sued a message board for something... didn't he?? J.P.s family will sue us all.