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Olerud363

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Everything posted by Olerud363

  1. Olerud363
    Ironically at the time Haladay left the Jays were just as close as they were in 2012 They won 76, but were better then that, and had (what looked like) great building blocks in Lind and Hill. There was random bad luck (regression) with Hill and Lind, and random good luck with Jose. They won 85 and 81 the two years after Halladay left. Add in Halladay's 8 WAR those two years and they could of won.
  2. Olerud363
    And that's why we fail... we are not allowed a young team because fans like you won't believe in it. The team loses 6 wins or so because it doesn't have Donaldson. Gomes/D'arnaud are injury prone, but combined you have some redundancy and a good catcher. You still have Bautista and EE. You have Syndergard for the entire year. You have Norris, Hoffman as the late season reinforcements. You believe in Pompey... potentially an upgrade over Revere. You even still have Travis Snider as more depth... Snider as a part time player can put up a 2 win season. You don't have the names and the MVP... but you have a fun young team that is set up for years.
  3. Olerud363
    Ha ha... this is the ultimate theme of this board. We live in a crazy world. A great deal of life is luck. To succeed you have to put yourself into situations where you can take advantage of the good luck, and be robust to bad luck. The KC Royals are lucky. No one wants to acknowledge it because we are trained to "respect" those who are lucky. If we respect them and pretend their luck is skill they might share some of their treasure with us. Don't get me wrong... there is hard work as well, the Royals organization built a 85+ win team... but they have no special skills the Pirates or the A's don't. Over the last five years the Royals aren't any better than those teams... just luckier.
  4. Olerud363
    Why is it incredibly difficult?? Lots of teams do it. If you assume we never made a trade since 2012, or only minor trades (ie it would be unfair to erase every trade except the Donaldson one) We'd have Syndergaard, Stroman, Hoffman and Norris in the rotation. Alvarez too. A tonne of depth for backend/bullpen. Gomes/D'Arnaud, Lawrie, Hech, Goins, Smoak, Snider, Pompey, Gose, Pillar, and Bautista as outfielders EE DH We'd have Yunel Escobar hanging around as a utility guy... There would be ups and downs with that. Mouse and Hosmer were awful in 2014, but Royals withstood it. It would be the Royals, with EE and Bautista as big bats.
  5. Olerud363
    I'm not saying it's all Price's fault. I'm just trying to point out that this thread is 100% logical. At the beginning of the 7th inning the Jays chances of making the world series were 50%, by the end they were 15%. So if you believe that the Price trade is only a success if the Jays make the world series, then now is a logical time to start this thread. Mariano Rivera once threw a sequence of pitches that reduced that Yankees chances of winning the world series from 78% to 0%. If Mariano had been a rental, acquired at great cost, for the purpose of winning a world series, then it would be fair to criticize the move, at that point. That situation is more extreme. In this case the Jays aren't done, just in trouble, hopefully they come back. In the playoffs a sequence can reduce your chances incredibly in a short time... you don't have 100 games left to make it up.
  6. Olerud363
    Sure... but in term's of leverage yesterday was a significant amount of Price's entire Blue Jay value. If you think the trade is only a win if Jays win get to the World series then the thread makes perfect sense. Jays chances of getting to world series were close to 50% at the beginning of the bottom of the seventh... they went down to below 20% by the end of the inning, maybe about 15%. The over-reactionary fans a lot of times have a pretty good idea of the probabilities... reducing world series chances from 50% to 15% in 15 minutes of terrible ball -- totally legit to complain. On Wednesday World series chances were increased from about 30% to 50% in the seventh... a lot of positive reaction to that.
  7. Olerud363
    Also the Phillie's big signings over 2011/12 winter are Juan Pierre and Papelbon... hopefully the Jays do better then that this winter.
  8. Olerud363
    The Phillie's began the transition from a 100 win team to the worst team in baseball after the 2011 season. In 2011 they win 100+ games. The key players were Roy Halladay 34, Cliff Lee 32, Hamels 27, Victorino 30, Utley 32, Hunter Pence 28. They Jay's key players are Donaldson 29, Bautista 34, EE 32, Tulo 30, Pillar 26, Russel Martin 32. In terms of age of the key players it is very comparable. The wild card is that the Jays have a group of young players who are really hard to evaluate. Stroman, Osuna, Sanchez, Pompey, and Devon Travis and even Hutchison. As a group they could be outstanding, or not. If Osuna could transition to the rotation, Stroman can keep healthy, and Pompey and Travis can become everyday players... If Hutchison really is a victim of bad luck. It's hard to know how to feel about this team. So much could go wrong or right.
  9. Olerud363
    This thread is really stupid. It doesn't matter what Yost does. The Royals current roster is probably the second best offensive team in the league after the Jays, keep in mind their (arguably) two best hitters Zobrist and Gordon missed significant time. Deep lineup, 6 guys get on base well (Zobrist, Mouse, Caine, Gordon, Morrales, Hosmer). Three decent pitchers. Teams are pretty evenly matched. It's a coin flip. The bigger issue is how to build a team that will contend for a multi-year window... so they can catch the luck one year, and Harold Reynolds will call them clutch. Yost/Gibbons are meaningless really
  10. Olerud363
    Yeah. Holy s***. Alex Gordon has a .377 on base percentage and hits 8th. NUTTY!! I thought maybe Gordon was impaired by his injury or something. But he got 110 at bats in September. Didn't hit great, but it still had a .327 on base percentage.
  11. Olerud363
    I think it is because the big goal was to get to the world series. At the time the Jays had blown chance after to chance to get there, when they finally did winning it was like a second thought.
  12. Olerud363
    85 was insane, so was 87... the young guys should take a look at some of the game logs. 89 and 91 the Jays were never really in those series. Game 4 - 92 was the one that changed it. It was kind of like the KC/Houston game yesterday. Except more insane. The comeback was against Eckersley though... a legend at the time. I remember Alomar throwing a guy out at the plate in the bottom of the 9th. Crazy, what I didn't remember was that Mark Mcgwire bunted that inning. http://www.bluejaysmessageboard.com/newreply.php?do=newreply&p=779752
  13. Olerud363
    It would be great to see Sanchez have success as a starter.
  14. Olerud363
    The homer was on a 0-2 pitch. Sanchez came in and blew 2 98 mph fastballs by Beltran. I think the homer was also a 98 mph fastball. He just screwed up that night by putting 3 pitches in a row in the same spot. At least that's my recollection. After that it seemed he lost confidence and control a bit... but it is back. It is just a matter if he can really pound the zone and not get burnt... once we get a bigger sample size we'll know if hitters will turn on his stuff (after they've seen it) or not.
  15. Olerud363
    Whhhutttt???? Joe Carter career WAR with the Blue Jays is about the same as Bautista's 2011.
  16. Olerud363
    I don't really believe in curses. It's just amusing that Moseby was on the cover just before the 87 collapse. I hate the fact that Sports Illustrated often uses the cover for a prediction with a staged shot, instead of using it for things that actually happened. Why didn't they just report on the Jays pennant race with the Yankees... and put a shot of Donaldson's homer against Tampa or something.
  17. Olerud363
    Kind of funny http://www.msn.com/en-ca/sports/mlb/did-sports-illustrated-curse-the-blue-jays-with-cover/ar-AAfa7xM
  18. Olerud363
    Fair point... The cover seems a little cringe worthy given what we've seen the last week. Fun fact Moseby was on the cover the week before the 87 collapse.
  19. Olerud363
    It is absolute insane... by the way in New England here the game is on MLB Network -- you need super-cable to watch it. Not even on Fox Sports or ESPN Insance, unjustified, unethical... gotta love coorporate America... It shows "the beest" and Rogers are nothing in the larger pecking order Fox (to Rogers and "the Beest") - We will f*** you. It is the way of coorporate America, take it like a man and you can still get shiny objects in your own small domain. Rogers and "the Beest" - yes masters, we are good coorporate citizens. We will obey... always.
  20. Olerud363
    ????????????????????????? Whuttt!! That makes no sense. Pillar is a .320 minor league hitter, athletic as hell, OK k-rate at the major league level... He is the defination of a guy who's .270 average is real. If Anthony Gose hit .270 that would be a guy who's .270 average is not real. (high k-rate, low milb average).
  21. Olerud363
    Exactly. We also don't know how many unintentional intentional walks Trout got. That's why the 0.3 or whatever difference in WAR may not be reliable. Does the win probability stat take all that into account?? Context of the intentional walks and such.
  22. Olerud363
    Total ********. There should be games on at the same time, it would be more fun that way. Not everybody has time to watch ball from noon to midnight anyway.
  23. Olerud363
    Looks like Trout ended up beating Donaldson by .4... He beat Cabrerra by 4 and 3 and still lost the MVP. 0.4 isn't much of a difference. Are we convinced it's calibrated right for intentional walks?? Trout got 14, Donaldson 0... then there may have been a bunch of unintentional intentional walks. Not sure how the math would work out... often times intentional walks are valuable anyway... cause they lead to big innings. However the difference between them offensively is 20 walks. 14 intentional, a bit of slugging and the park factor. You're all convinced that's all in there accurately enough that we can say the 0.4 difference is real??
  24. Olerud363
    Final 2015 numbers - .340 on base percentage - 93 wins, first in A.L. East. Buck and Pat go on and on about how on base percentage is over-rated... the boys gotta hit. Yes Buck, Yes Pat, drink more... other Jays teams have hit more homers... this team was the most patient in the league... If they did what you said they would of scored 750 runs like in 2010.
  25. Olerud363
    Deadpool is like Frank Underwood... he is acting like O2s ally, he is faking modesty, behind the scenes he is scheming and making deals. Impeach anyway. It will be interesting to see where it all goes.
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