Olerud363
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Everything posted by Olerud363
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500+ homers... 3 MVPs... 500 sb 8 gold gloves... = border line?? And to make it fair no one else would be on anything... so the 500+ homers would really mean something.
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You also need to consider co-factors... for example maybe shortness is correlated with velocity... and velocity is the important factor... Take a simple 2 parameter model using velocity and height... it could be that height just predicts velocity, but does not predict anything independent of velocity... velocity predicts future performance. It's not that simple, but that's the road you have to go down to do it properly.
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If you are going to compare someone to anything you have to make that someone the middle... for example if I am going to compare you to guys in your town with an IQ of 150 (your IQ), it is doubtful I can find enough geniuses like yourself, with an exact IQ of 150, in your small town to get a large enough sample. So I'd have to get some people who have close to, but not exactly your IQ. If I compared you to guys with your IQ and below I'd get you and 10 people obviously inferior to your genius. If I compared you to guys with your IQ and above you'd be the dumbest of the group. So I'd need to make a group where you are average, the group would have you, some guys close, but below you, and some guys (and girls too) close but above you... so you are the average representation of the group.
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You also have to add in some 5"9 guys maybe even a couple of 5'10" so Stroman is average for the group... compare him to the 39 as short or shorter, and add in the next 20-30 tallest or so... if you compare him to only guys as short or shorter he is a giant among those... I am sure you know that... who knows if Grant does.
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Fair enough... I suck at spelling and grammar.... I am sure there is a circuit missing... I did the SATs in highschool and got a pretty lopsided score... 750 550 or something.
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Rooky?? Have no idea if this comment is directed to me.... If Stroman looked like Roy Halladay (not just pitched like him circa 2001-2007) nobody would blink when you compared him to Syndergaard. So the "you crazy, Syndergaard way, way better" comments are probably based on Syndergard's size and body type... which may be sound reasoning. I don't know.
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According to fangraphs Syndergard has been worth 3.1 WAR in 150 innings, Stroman 3.5 WAR in 157 innings. Syndergard is projected for 4.1 WAR next year, Stroman for 3.4. I can't imagine two players being any closer statistically... That's why one would argue they are even. Stuff wise, build, there may be differences. You could argue that Syndergaard is much, much likelier to hold up... though steamer doesn't think there is much difference near term. Not sure if height is part of steamer. Stroman is 1 year 4 months older... but he made his debute at almost exactly the same age as Syndergard, rooky seasons were very close. The argument for Syndergard is health... which is fair. Performance wise they are very close, even minor league numbers are close.
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I expect nothing less. I wish you all safety, (free) health, a fair share of resources, the right to love who you choose, equality, and justice every day, nothing special about today.
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You *******s live in Justin Trudeau's Canada where I assume everything is perfectly balanced and neutral. Like I heard that his cabinet is fully representative of every group possible... at least that's what American hippies tell me.... Little known fact -- As much as you guys diss America as backwards, it is like 45% hippy. The American Hippies love Trudeau.... they were so happy he got elected. They are all planning to move there if Trump gets elected.
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Shapiro: Upgrades planned for RC, grass not a top priority
Olerud363 replied to G-Snarls's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
Yes. Drabek, Wallace, Changed baseball. Prospects are no longer valuable. What the f is wrong with you?? For every example there is a counter examples. Chris Lee and Grady Sizemore. Chicago Cubs, 3/4 of their top players last year Arrieta, Rizzu and Addison Russel were prospects from other teams. For gods sake, prospects fail, but so do established vets. Look at Hanley and the panda bear. It is all just probabilty. There is no certainty. You just have to play the odds... -
Crowd source > mods People have the right of self-destiny...
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The 2015 Winter Meetings (Dec 7-10)
Olerud363 replied to GreekFatAss's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
Sorry for what you are going through. There is no freedom here. The most successful boards are edgy and have character... -
1103 -- no probably not 850 or so I'd say... less then last year actually... but there will be regression from other players... I doubt Jays would be projected for 900 even with Chris Davis... 850 still would lead the league by 100 or something silly.
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I wonder if it is weigting mlb data to heavily... If you have a guy with 2000 decent minor league at bats, I wonder if 200 bad mlb at bats biases the projection. So Urena ends up higher then Goins, Dwight Smith higher then Pompey... despite the fact that Pompey and Goins have better long term minor league numbers.
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Yes. Guys with 8 WAR peak seasons (Bautista, Donaldson hit 8, Tulo would of if healthy) are still pretty good after 30% decline. I mean they weren't really 8 WAR guys, they were 6 + noise, and now are 4.5s
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How the hell is Dwight Smith Jr. projected for higher rates than Pompey?? Pompey is a .280 .370 .430ish minor leaguer hitter, with similar bb and k rates to Smith Smith is a .268 .344 .370 or so minor league hitter. This doesn't seem right. There is no reason for Smith to have a higher projection... I don't think...
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The projection machine might not be smart enough to recognize that he will be at first. It is likely still projecting him as a below average short stop and/or 3rd base with offense returning to career norms. (to be technically correct, the machine doesn't care that he is at first) My understanding is that the machine isn't that bright with defense. It gives the guy a rating and the rating is the same no matter where he plays. So say Hanley is actually rated as a neutral defender (-6 to 6) the last few years... the machine will discard the -22 rating last year as a fluke and regress him back to -6 (independently of where he plays) It doesn't understand that his skill might not translate to left and/or other positions. And I don't think it considers the number of plays at each position.
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If the thread isn't popular, no one will post on it, and it will disappear quickly enough. It used to be that this was a great place to come, scan the thread titles, and quickly understand what was happening in baseball and blue jay land that day...
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The thread merging is a little much... It really does prevent great articles/discussions and such from being noticed.
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To quote NJH "this is drivel" (my gripe with NJH is just that he often doesn't explain why things are drivel) Let's say that Cola has great hitters in front of and behind him. The pitchers will have incentive to use a pitching pattern to him that a) will keep him from driving in runs will keep him from being on base for the next guy Giving him fastballs down the middle, that will allow him to hit .300 with 25 homers will accomplish nothing for the opposing team. Cola is a lifetime .265 hitter, 20 homer guy (per 162)... there is no reason for the pitchers to ever give him meatballs and let him hit .300 with 25 homers. If Cola is in the middle of a great line-up, the only ptiching strategy that makes sense, is the same one they've always used, that has led to him being a .265 .320 .430 guy.
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Edwin .270 .360 .500 hitter, 33 years old, Cola .250 .320 .450 hitter.... 32 years old The difference between them is significant... Cola=replacement... Edwin is projected for 3 wins. The upgrade from Cola to Edwin is worth 10 million... maybe 15-20 million depending on how you value wins. Cola is a nice story but he is not really a .320 hitter... I mean you don't think he is really a .320 hitter do you?? Nobody else does, I don't think, not the people or the machines.
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I think conventional wisdom is a load of s***. Playoff teams are good teams, they tend to have good pitching... but the teams with the very best pitching doesn't win any more then you would expect. The best way to win a world series is to build a team good enough to make the playoffs 5/7 years... good luck will hit one year or two... that is what happened 85-93. I know I sound like a broken record...
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Out of the 8 playoff teams (10 if you include wild card) Jays were 3rd... Lost every game started by "the ace" Ace - 0-3 Stroman 2-1 Estrado 2-1 Dickey 1-1 We have (likely) lost "the ace", but the pitchers retunring went 5-3 in the playoffs (in the games they started, didn't always get decision). Jays went 5-6 in the playoffs -- that is not bad. Texas went 2-3, St. Louise 1-3... Chicago 4-5... Jays were 3/8 in terms of playoff teams. Jays good in playofffs, other than "Ace" David Price.
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He only said much of it was Hogwash.... no idea which part might not of been hogwash... the win value estimate of 7M??, the surplus value of 3.5M??, the fact Hendricks has 3 more years?? The concerns about Chavez' durability?? What I do know is that NJH is a very clever individual... you my friend are inferior... some large percentage of your thoughts are hogwash... no real idea which ones or why but in our coorporate slave culture, NJH is obviously training to be an alpha, and refuses to use more than a sentence to belittle low ones, such as yourself. And that my friend should tell you all you need to know about your status. You are so low, you are not even worth a paragraph of thought.
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The case for re-signing Navarro
Olerud363 replied to TilsonBritoFan's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
Agree to some extent... the strike zone did not help...