Olerud363

They have Orelvis popup Martinez and some Jiminez guy that will be good if his D at short scores well and Beltre and Jesus hitting .200 with 2 ks a game in New Hampshire.

 

They have lots of international signees and they suck. They have lots of college white boys who could probably be OK in their age 27 season but will spend that in Buffalo. The management has signed and drafted players of all different colors and backgrounds and they all suck.

They even signed some Eastern Indian guy which was a nice story until they put him in against low a ball pitchers and discovered he doesn't have the hand eye coordination to ever get past Vancouver (high single a)

So they tried every type, no pattern except they are all bad picks except Mustache Schneider but he probably sucks too but just has a determined attitude.

This team reminds me of some of those weak hitting JP Riccardi teams, the ones that the Toronto media dubbed 'The Toronto White Jays'. I look around at the roster and it's full of low ceiling, limp noodle white guys like Ernie Clement, Cavan Biggio, Keimaier, small-sample-size-Schneider and so on and so forth. Aside from Vlad (pretty much the only guy on the team who can put a charge in the ball), there's really no high ceiling international talent. The roster is void of the international physical specimens like the Elly De la Cruz, Juan Soto, Julio Rodriguez, Jose Ramirez and Adolis Garcia's of the world.

 

Alex Anthopolous was never scared to dig into the international talent pool but there seems to be a concerted change in tactic with the roster construction from Shapiro. It's my opinion that we need some fiery international talent to shake up the doldrums of this tired and lackluster roster.

 

I hope no one takes this thread in a politically incorrect way because it's not intended to be. It's just something I've noticed about the Blue Jays when comparing them to other good teams.

They have Orelvis popup Martinez and some Jiminez guy that will be good if his D at short scores well and Beltre and Jesus hitting .200 with 2 ks a game in New Hampshire.

They have lots of international signees and they suck. They have lots of college white boys who could probably be OK in their age 27 season but will spend that in Buffalo. The management has signed and drafted players of all different colors and backgrounds and they all suck.

Damn team needs to stop swinging for the fences and learn to play smallball!

My greatest fear is that the next management team are even bigger morons than this one because some Rogers suit gets convinced that the 'not enough small ball' and 'too much analytics' s*** is the problem.

Nope, it is not good. There are no reinforcements coming. I thought Barger actually looked good. Horwitz is Lyle Overbay lite, Orelvis might be okay. Good thing Davis Schneider appeared out of thin air

One of the problems with Horwitz is that he's going to waste his prime in Buffalo. Basically age 25-27 will be his best years and I honestly believe he would hit well enough those three years. By the time he is in the majors he will be post prime.

Barger is 24 and also could be wasting one of his best seasons in the minors.

Kind of like Kevin Pillar. Was able to be a part of a great team at age 26 but then started declining after his first full year.

Good organization would get players like this up age 24 through 28 so you get their best years. Like the players that could give 3 WAR years in their prime are wasting them in Buffalo while Turner and Vogelbeach use up the at bats to get -0.4 war.

This is not a fun minor league system to follow at this point. I have to think with Nimmala struggling, Barriera having another lost year, and Tiedemann having persistent injury concerns, this team is going to be in the bottom 5 again for most prospect lists.

Rogers needs to fire Shapiro and Atkins right now.

Who cares if there is no team in place for the draft, just using the baseball america rankings or something for the draft will be better than another Shapiro/Atkins draft.

If Shaprio/Atkins/Bo/Vlad end up with 0 playoff wins then the entire thing is a colossal failure and they all need to go live in a van down by the river.

If they win a single game. 1 playoff win, then I will look back fondly on this era and the genius management that made it all happen.

We’ve rebranded to Team It’s Not Over Yet

This team should only be proven right if Jays win a playoff game. If they don't team 'it's over, start over' is proven right.

Lots of things could happen. Jays could win 90 but the WC3 race heats up and Seattle wins out or something... Jays could sneak into WC3 with 83 wins and get beat by Cleveland 5-0 in a 2 game series. Of 11-9 blowing another lead.

If any of those happen team 'It's over' was right.

So Jays have to win a playofff game. Bo/Vlad finally get a playoff win. Even if they lose a 3 game series just the thrill of getting ready for an elimination game on an October thursday will be great. 1 playoff win is needed for Team It's Not over to be proven right.

The chances that team 'not panicking' look correct at the end are pretty good.

 

It's a 7 team race. Say there is a 1/7 chance the Jays do it. Not good for team 'not panicking'.

 

However there is probably a great chance the Jays win 83, the 3rd wild card is a dud with 85, and the Jays look like they are in it until the last weekend. Like if everyone is tied with 82 wins last Thursday of the season, team not panicking can gloat and say 'no matter what boys we did, we made it a season'.

 

Odds of making WC3? 15% or so? Odds of looking like they put up a fight? 50% at least I would guess.

The flaw in team not panicking is that say the Jays playoff odds stay at 1/7 (because they are in a 7 team race) the whole season. TNP will keep looking batter and better even though nothing has changed odds wise.

On the last Thursday of the season, when 7 teams are tied for WC3 with 82 wins, Jays are in the same s***** situation they are in now (1/7 chance), but it looks a lot better, like they are fighters. When in reality they still have only a small chance of making playoffs because of April/May slump. So if they just miss losing 2/3 last weekend of the season it will seem better, but playoff chances were still ruined in May, and the May negative Nancies were right.

If I could get a head count on team not panicking that would be great. Is it just Randy and Jim Lahey left?

The chances that team 'not panicking' look correct at the end are pretty good.

It's a 7 team race. Say there is a 1/7 chance the Jays do it. Not good for team 'not panicking'.

However there is probably a great chance the Jays win 83, the 3rd wild card is a dud with 85, and the Jays look like they are in it until the last weekend. Like if everyone is tied with 82 wins last Thursday of the season, team not panicking can gloat and say 'no matter what boys we did, we made it a season'.

Odds of making WC3? 15% or so? Odds of looking like they put up a fight? 50% at least I would guess.

I have lost the ability to detect your sarcasm anymore. Perhaps when you took a few days off bjmb you had a change of heart. Maybe that you saw a vision on the road to Blu Jays Way and became born again? I don't know anymore.

It's impossible to tell because no one know what ones definition of hopeless is. Would have hope if the Doctor gave you a 20% chance to live? The patient has a 20% chance that means different things to different people.

Vogelbach: $2M ARO : Negative 0.1 WAR

 

Justin Turner: $13M ARO: Negative 0.2 WAR

Meanwhile in Buffalo our 26 year olds (or are they 27 now? 28? 30?) are putting up .900 OPS. Really excited for Kasevich and Roden to get up to Buffalo, they should put their kids in school in Buffalo (or find a local wife if no kids yet) set down roots, buy a house or two, invest in a local Wendy's, maybe even join the local school Board.

I know it's a tough pill to swallow, but grab a big glass of water and get it down. This team f***ing sucks. 3.5 games might as well be 87 games. That number is irrelevant when there are like 7 teams ahead of them. I mean there's always a chance for a miracle, but I wouldn't hold your breath.

You can do this on a napkin.

Two team race chances are 1/2 that your team does it, take away a bit if your team is behind, add a bit if your team projects better. So 50% give or take.

7 team race chances are 1/7 that your team does it, take away a bit if your team is the one behind, add a bit if your team projects better, so 16% give or take.

Crochet is nuts

 

It never helps much when Bo sees like 4 pitches the entire game.

 

Certain other "good" hitters see 20 pitches a game and are personally responsible for the SP leaving an inning earlier

 

Not Bo!

 

Starting Pitchers love bo bichette

They are aggressive now, trying to pull dat ball, and probably going to switch to a Cito Gaston style offense which will get them 200 runs behind the Yankees. Not that it's any different really than being 200 runs behind the Yankees with their Don Mattingly style offense.

The only thing that has worked (2015/16/21/22) is a Yankee style offense with both homeruns (via pull dat ball, or opp tacos or whatever) and on base is high.

Orelvis is in a big slump. 1 for his last 33. wRC+ back down to 106.

This franchise sucks at developing impact talent. If Horwitz, a .330 .450 .490 hitter projects as a no power loser....

What does a .200 hitting popup machine project as?

In other news the only type of talent they can develop, 24 year olds who will play in Buffalo until they are 28 did good in aa tonight (Roden and Kasevich had big games)

2027 Bisons win championship with 27 year old Roden and Kasevich hitting .350 combined in their third year with Bisons, Horwirtz jealous as he only hit .330 for 4th year in a row.

2027 Blue Jays win 72 with great signing of several great 38 year olds.

Great - I can't wait until Adrian Pinto is a superstar at the ML level.

 

184 wRC+ 2:1 BB/K rate at 18 in rookie ball.

that's in the DSL. If he did that in almost any league in the States it would be more meaningful. DSL is probably less reliable and more like high school

And you picked an injured guy too. Like he is not playing anywhere because he is injured. Only played like 35 games the last two years.

Make a list of all ever who hit above .350 in first 50 minor league games (include DSL if you want) then a list of all who hit below .200 in first 50 games. Tell us what happened on average to each group.

And I didn't say there was any guarantees. Just saying the first 50 games in a USA minor league is meaningful if it is dramatic either way.

Went to check on something and got distracted by Druw Jones headline that he is now finding his power... not sure that is true. lol. Still at low A slugging .350

correction. Druw is slugging .389 but with 46 ks in 31 games. Doesn't have the hand eye to probably ever make it I don't think. Weird how that happens to even a top 2 pick. Scouts and stats can't tell that their hand eye coordination isn't good enough based on high school games, but it becomes apparent after 30 rookie ball games sometimes.

Went to check on something and got distracted by Druw Jones headline that he is now finding his power... not sure that is true. lol. Still at low A slugging .350

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=jones-000dru

This is what I am saying about Nimalla. Players that suck in their first 40 or 50 games have a long road ahead even if a teenager. Jones and Nimalla are likely to take years to get through the minors if they make it at all.

On the other hand players that smoke the ball as a teenager are 18 months away often. It's just data 101. Extreme data either way tells you something even if sample size is low(ish). Through 40 games guy hits .175 with a 10 to 50 bb to k you know something, guy hit .350 with power and a 25-25 k/bb you know something. Guy hits .250 with a 20 to 35 k/bb you know nothing.

This is all semantics, he is blocked, but Jays chose to intentionally block him for some small benefit. If you don't sign Vogelbach is the projection any worse

 

Howritz gets Vogelbech playing time

If Howritz/Vlad/Turner need to be replaced ? get's the playing time.

 

So it's Nathan Lukes, or Barger or other that gets the playing time and are they that much worse than Vogelbech? Like what is the projected WAR increase from having Vogelbech ? I'm not saying it's nothing, but maybe it is like 0.1 at the expense of playing time for more interesting guys.

Let's say a guy Vogelbech was needed for 100 games. include lifetime rate stats/projections/ and defense which combo is more fwar for those 100 games. Given lifetime rates Vlad would be -12 over those 100 games while Biggio would be -3 on fangraphs system.

Vlad at first/Vogelbech at DH

Vlad at DH/Biggio at first

He is blocked.

 

The thing with Horwitz and guys like him is it will ALWAYS make more sense to sign an MLB guy like DV (projected 113-117 wRC+) and then keep Horwitz in AAA if he has options. Then you have two of the same guy, and you have depth.

 

If you instead put Horwitz on the big team (112-117 wRC+ projection) you won't be able to sign a guy for AAA nearly as good as Vogelbach. So your depth is worse and you don't project any better.

 

Is what it is. He is blocked but it's just because of how MLB roster rules work. Once he is out of options he will be a big leaguer somewhere. The other possibility is he slides in as an injury replacement and does so well, overperforms, then he leapfrogs the other option above him. Wally Pipp.

 

I do think they are scared to platoon Turner at this point. Maybe later this year...

This is all semantics, he is blocked, but Jays chose to intentionally block him for some small benefit. If you don't sign Vogelbach is the projection any worse

Howritz gets Vogelbech playing time

If Howritz/Vlad/Turner need to be replaced ? get's the playing time.

So it's Nathan Lukes, or Barger or other that gets the playing time and are they that much worse than Vogelbech? Like what is the projected WAR increase from having Vogelbech ? I'm not saying it's nothing, but maybe it is like 0.1 at the expense of playing time for more interesting guys.

Personally I don't think a 1B/DH with no power is much of an asset

Well Rowdy Tellez hit 35 homeruns one year and wasn't much of a player, in other years hit 20 and was unplayable. Tonnes of raw power, good game power, and sucks.

This tripe is stupid. You don't see a lot of first basement without power because the skillset to make it work (good defense and on base skills) often enables them to play other positions.

This years version of Vlad is 3 WAR. .285 .385 .395, no power, OK 1b defense and walks.

This type of first basemen is rare, but that is different than 'not an asset'. Howritz's road to success is that he hits .280 in the majors, keeps walking and his defense scores good. If that happens (and maybe it won't) he is a good player, even without power. If he hit's .240 with bad defense, he isn't worth anything.

Howritz is just blocked big guy, there's a reason the Birds have him playing 2nd base and LF recently. His bat should play in the MLB if he transitions well, anyone thinking he won't are being obtuse. There's always a chance.

If he is really bad defensively his bat probably won't play unless he hits the upper end of his projections. Guys like Olerud and Mark Grace had higher WAR then Delgado because of defense.

The funny thing about Money Ball, is Scott Hatteburg only worked out because his 1b defense rated good even his hitting was on the low side for 2000 era 1b men.

So all I am trying to say is that Howritz probably can't play defense as bad as 2023 Guerrero and still be playable, but if he is more like 2002 Hatteburg it works out. That is you believe the defensive metrics for 1b men.

Also Howritz being blocked is a problem the Jays made themselves. Will really suck if they just miss WC3 and meanwhile Turner and Vogelbech put up negative WAR.

Not a Vogelback super fan, but in typical Jays fashion the guy that guys off in a game is sitting the next day. Always seems so odd to me.

I wonder how that decision gets made. Is it like a bad computer program that isn't accounting for recency bias enough? There is more than likely so signal in Yesterday's performance. However there is also no harm in weighting yesterday's performance higher, because as soon as Yesterday's performance is bad the guy will sit, and at worst it just results in someone getting rewarded an extra day.

Or is it bad human decision where the 'Turner vet must not sit 2 days' rule over-rides the 'Vogelbech hit big homerun, give him another game' rule.

Jansen is more a 4/5 hitter

I think the days of certain kinds of hitters are long gone. Just best to worst with some consideration for a guys comfort in different spots.

I mean George Springer was never a prototypical so called lead off hitter. Just was happy to be there so that is where he ended up when Houston put there best hitters 1-4.

Leo Jimenez coming into tonight's game has a 134 wRC+ (.260/.431/.420) and .423 xwOBA in AAA. Still 22. Supposed to be a good defensive SS. Out of options after this season. Wonder if he's trade bait or someone the Jays plan to use at the big league level. If it's the latter, then they might want to get him some big league reps somehow because he'll have to be on the 26 man roster if he's still on the team in 2025.

Jiminez and Howritz are in the same boat. Low power, high on base percentage guys, who play the position of our 2 franchise players who are headed for free agency.

Both could replace Vlad/Bo without losing any fWAR if their defense scores well. (won't replace the 2021 11 WAR version of Vlad/Bo, but I'm talking about the current 5 WAR combined version)

I don't really buy that they won't project in MLB because of no power. Even Russ Adams would have been an OK player if his defense worked. It didn't. Obviously you can't be useful with no power and no defense.

How about this organizations development team being able to fix Manoah! Incredible stuff.

Only 3.5 games out of a playoff spot with 115 to go!