Olerud363

Well, at least itÂ’ll only be a couple years until the next Bo/Vlad tandem come up and reenergize the fan base..oh waitÂ…

People have been comparing this year to 2017. In 2017 Bo and Vlad were hitting a combined .340 in Lansing and Dunnedin. That put them 2 years away. Jansen was 1 year away. Hernandez appeared that year.

Nimmala and Bonilla are now both in FCL hitting a combined .200 though Bonilla is now up to 5-27 bb-k or so... but the two, even if destined to make it, are much farther away then Bo/Vlad were in 2017.

Essentially there was only 1 year without hope (2018). 2017 was like this year. 2019 the new generation had arrived, 2020 winning record.

Spencer Horwitz will be here soon though

https://forum.orioleshangout.com/topic/52805-monday-63-toronto/

I do recommend anyone who is curious what forever-joy is like, take a look at Orioles Hangout.

You can't receive the Joy, as a Blue Fan you can only suffer for next decade or two, but if intellectually curious what joy is like visit the Orioles Hangout at the link Omar provided https://forum.orioleshangout.com/topic/52805-monday-63-toronto/

https://forum.orioleshangout.com/topic/52805-monday-63-toronto/

? I hate the Orioles. People I hate love the Orioles. Criminals I know love the Orioles. The people who made me the angry unhinged person I am today love the Orioles.

These horrible people have forever-joy. The Orioles fans have a baseball team that will start drawing 3 million a year and they will be propelled to a generational run.

I hate it. It is reality but I dislike this reality. Why would I want to go to Orioles hangout a place of forever joy, but joy that is not mine. I love the Blue Jays, very sad to me what has happened. Fire Shapiro!

O's fans sitting at home watching the game can probably relate to how quiet the dome is right now

Are Orioles fans quiet? I assume that by the end of the year Baltimore, with a second 100ish win season in a row will beat Toronto in attendance by a bit (still behind right now)

I figure this year Orioles will end at 2.5 million Toronto 2.3 or something

After that it will be Orioles 3 million Toronto 1.5 million forever pretty much (Orioles have a forever dynasty of joy).

but but, I thought beating the White Sox and Pirates meant this team was turning the corner, we might buy instead of sell and trading Vlad or Bo makes no sense at all. Haha. This team needs 18 wins a month to even compete for a wildcard spot at this point, the sell needs to happen and one of Vlad or Bo should absolutely be included. Probably Bo because he would fetch a larger return.

but nobody is worth anything...

Kikuchi - wild, not consistent

Guassman - old, expensive lost a bit

Vlad - 'no power bro' (barely got that one over the centerfield fence tonight)

Bo - .240 hitter with no defense

Jansen - lots of injuries,

Yimi - whatever

This is a team of sadness, a team of nothing, a team of no hope, no assets, no future.

The only option is to hire a genius 32 year old GM and go the Orioles way...

a) Fire Shapiro

win 35 games a year for 6 years

c) win 110 games for generations after that

Problem is it is very hard to tell who is a genius and who is not, because 110 IQers with good social skills can fool you.

The team has their 20% chance of doing something this year + it is theoretically set up to compete for a playoff spot next year. Yes, after 2026 things look grim but would selling now really accelerate the timeline much?

I sold my NVIDIA stock in 2017 because f***er-f***ers (including the Coastal elite newpapers) told me Trump was going to crash the stock market with his trade policies. So dumb.

I bought my NVIDIA stock very early, so got enough to sit on my ass and post on BJMB for a few months, but not enough to become a multi-millionaire like most of the other board members.

I regret this. And hate Paul Krugman and other liberal *******s for lying to me. However my friends tell me I should have just sold half. Sell half. That's what the genius traders on BJMB probably do. In and out. Sell half. Buy back in. And they are millionaires. I don't care that much. Money can't buy happiness. Only winning arguments with millionaire morons on BJMB can.

The moral of the story is there are 3 options. Keep NVIDIA. Sell all NVIDIA. Sell half of NVIDIA. And with the 2024 Blue Jays there is also 3 options

1. Sell

2. Buy

3. Hold and call up Spencer so we have two 3 WAR .290 11 77 'no power bro' 1st basemen (which is better than one and Justin Turner).

Listen to all these defeatist losers

 

"why even try"

 

"just start the rebuild"

 

This is why you're all divorced and depressed

 

God forbid a sports team try to win!

Negative Nancies and the Positive Petes are both right in a way.

Positive Petes are right because this team is better than it has looked has far and could easily win 86 games, sneak into WC3 then anything can happen. They have talent that is good sometimes, and no reason this talent couldn't be good for 3 weeks in October.

Negative Nancies are right because even if this team plays better and finds themselves with 84 wins last Thursday of the season, and in a weird 5 way WC3 race, all that means is they have a 20% chance of making the playoffs (although it will seem like way more because being tied for WC3 seems awesome).

People are just totally misunderstanding what I am saying about Bonilla and Nimmala.

It's not that they have a 0% chance of making it, it's that they have greatly reduced their chances of making it quick and being a star. Players who become stars usually are already different their first two months.

We all want high impact talent and other than potentially Barger I would say every player in the system has sort of set ceilings.

Don't you all agree? I think Barger has a really high ceiling still because of both his stats, and what I have heard about his arm strength and bat speed. He's like the only guy you could dream on, and he might be a complete failure because of footwork and spend his prime in Korea like Eric Thames did.

ThatÂ’s 4 paragraphs my dude, not 4 lines

The last post was 6 lines on a PC + some stats for Schneider, Jansen, and the up and comer Bonilla (in terms of k/bb one is not like the other). You may be thinking of sentences. It is possible to have mulitple sentences on a line.

Most of my post are about 4-7 lines of text on a desktop. Probably 30-40 lines of text on your phones, especially for anyone over 40 who uses the big text. Point is a major board problem is completely different ability to absorb information for the desktop users vs the phone users. The latter are probably on average much dumber (not genetics just phone induced brain damage) but much richer because of the 'buy NVIDIA' button on the phone (though they do have to sell it at some point).

Not sure how NVIDIA entered the chat - but I'm making a killing off it

Since people don't have the attention span to read 3 sentences (sentences look long on phone) I was just curious how the day traders here make so much money. I assume there is a button on the phone that one can use to buy NVIDIA with one click. Not sure how you sell it.

Update. Bonilla on fire. Up to .324 on base percentage. Got another walk this week.

Schneider at 18 in Rookie Ball - 36 walks 36 ks

Jansen at 18 in Rookie Ball - 20 walks 10 ks

Bonilla at 18 in Rookie Ball - 3 walks 29 ks

lol. He probably will make it, but given how much struggles even our guys who dominate rookie ball have. Given that Orelvis 'popup' Martinez didn't start to hit all those popups until aa it will be a helluva long road.

It will still probably take Bonilla 8 years to reach the majors and he will have a career like Moises Sierra or something... It'll be great. Can't wait until 2031.

4 lines. lol. Probably looks like a book to you morons on your phones. Hope you don't get tired scrolling.

 

Yo Bro! k-rate sucks.

How do you imbecile trading bros make your millions on the NVIDIA? There must be a buy NVIDIA button on your phones. One click.

Some of the people giving me a hard time about this actually do understand the concept. Extreme k-rate, even low sample size, is meaningful.

 

A couple people were half jokingly thinking maybe Jackson Holliday could bust, no one was even joking about it before his 10 game stint in the majors.

 

18 ks in 10 games 2-18 k/bb. Extreme enough it knocks off a bit off his career expectations. It does increase the chance he could bust by a bit (pretty low still obviously).

 

Anyway point is if you read the posts about Jackson Holliday people kind of get this, the terrible k rate in 40 games puts players in a different group and lowers expectations already.

4 lines. lol. Probably looks like a book to you morons on your phones. Hope you don't get tired scrolling.

Yo Bro! k-rate sucks.

Davis Schneider in rookie ball had a 36-36 bb/k, Bonilla is 2-27

Danny Jansen 18 in rookie ball had a 21-10 bb/k in rookie ball Bonilla is 2-27

 

Danny Jansen 18 in rookie ball struck out 10 times in 36 games, Nimmala 43 times in 29 games

 

Your bringing up players who were the opposite of Bonilla and Nimalla

 

Batting average in 40 games is not reliable. k/bb is the worrisome thing and starts to get reliable pretty quick.

Some of the people giving me a hard time about this actually do understand the concept. Extreme k-rate, even low sample size, is meaningful.

A couple people were half jokingly thinking maybe Jackson Holliday could bust, no one was even joking about it before his 10 game stint in the majors.

18 ks in 10 games 2-18 k/bb. Extreme enough it knocks off a bit off his career expectations. It does increase the chance he could bust by a bit (pretty low still obviously).

Anyway point is if you read the posts about Jackson Holliday people kind of get this, the terrible k rate in 40 games puts players in a different group and lowers expectations already.

Davis Schneider spent parts of 4 seasons at rookie and A ball at age 18, 19, 20, and 21

 

Danny Jansen was at rookie and A for 4 years at age 18, 19, 20, and 21. OPS of 500 and 600

 

George Springer was in A-, A+, and AA at 21 and 22

 

Justin Turner was in rookie ball at 21

 

18 at rookie and A ball is exceptional by itself. Bonilla has hit very well at DSL and rookie. Nimmala hasn't been good, but shown potential. Not sure why you are making up a s*** case to cry about

Davis Schneider in rookie ball had a 36-36 bb/k, Bonilla is 2-27

Danny Jansen 18 in rookie ball had a 21-10 bb/k in rookie ball Bonilla is 2-27

Danny Jansen 18 in rookie ball struck out 10 times in 36 games, Nimmala 43 times in 29 games

Your bringing up players who were the opposite of Bonilla and Nimalla

Batting average in 40 games is not reliable. k/bb is the worrisome thing and starts to get reliable pretty quick.

FFS man - now Olerud is going to write a 783 page novel on why you're wrong.

Unfair. None of my posts are that long it is only an illusion created by the phone. I don't use phones and I am sure I am in the minority but a few sentences strung together look horrible on the phone.

I use the computer. So many f***ing morons these days have no idea how to use a computer, and their brains are fried looking at the 3 inch screen all day, which is why reading comprehension and stats are gone.

IKF is smoking Vladdy and Bo in ISO lol

Vladdy is close to going on a homerun tear. He's close. Close. Just missed that one. Close. He's close.

I also find it funny that despite 'no power bro', and his defense and baserunning still being terrible Vladdy is on pace for 3 WAR.

A 1b men who could hit .290, walk, hit 10 homers, play defense, run the bases well, is probably 5 WAR in this offensive environment.

That player rarely exists anymore, but used to, Keith Hernandez, Grace, Olerud, Scott Hatteburg for 1 year.

I'm not sure what you are going on about. Good luck with your insanity. I'm around if you need info on reality of prospects though

So who are the players that struggled at 18, struggled to the point they couldn't even stick in low A and became impact talent? I can't remember a single player in Blue Jays history who did this.

Arguably Shawn Green and Alex Rios are two, but even they hit like .270 with good k rates at 18, they just didn't show power (yet). Derek Jeter at first glance.

However that is only a product of the funny way age is measured. When Jeter was 3 months older than Nimalla, in his second season, the year he turned 19, he was doing fine in low A. Jeter was 18 years 9 months, Nimalla 18 years 6 months.

Of course across the entire history of baseball you can find a few players who turned it around. I mean it's only been 2 months, Nimalla could finish strong, who knows.

Just that if you look at history, even the history of this franchise, D.J. Davis, Kevin Ahrens, Miguel Negron, the like 15-20 overall draft picks, and compare them to Travis Snider, Brett Lawrie, Bo Bichette, you could already see the differences after 2 months in A-ball.

I remember when Jays traded Brett Wallace for Anthony Gose there was huge debate on the old board. And the Gose haters were right because they intuitively knew just glancing at his stats, that even though he was just a teenager, the shape of his numbers showed that he couldn't hit and wouldn't.

Out of the at least 100 times you told us Vlad was close, exactly 0 times did he return to hitting as his minor league numbers suggested he could.

 

You were completely wrong, but since data doesn't matter to you there is nothing I can do.

 

'Vlad's close'!

 

Vlad hit's .290 with a .400 slugging percentage

 

OK. So f*** you. Nimalla is awesome. Bonilla is awesome.

 

I am sure new posters are tired of seeing fights between old time posters, which there are a lot of lately, and I guess I am making the problem worse.

However just some context. After 2021, starting around May of 2022 LTBF claimed literally at least 100 times that Vlad was on the verge of returning to his 2021 form.

It just became a joke "He's close", "He's almost there", "He's close".

I am sure to cover his ass LTBF will claim he just meant Vlad was going to return to hitting .275 or something. Really? Does anybody think that LTFB meant Vlad was going to return to his 2022-2024 form? Which he was already at. As Vlad marched through 2022 to now, hitting OK the whole time, LTBF constantly told us Vlad was 'close'. 'Close'. CLose to what? Close to returning to being 2021 Vlad. So close.

He's close. He's close. Just missed that one. Real close. Bo sucks. Bo just grounded into a double play. Bo sucks. Vlad's close. Tango is wrong. Tango is wrong. Tango is here? On this board? He is wrong. Bo would have 70 errors if it wasn't for Vlad.

OK. Just to be precise, LTBF did not say the last one. Everything else he said, and he was wrong on.

Vlad was never close to returning to his 2021 form and never will. Nimalla and Bonilla have a much longer road ahead as it should be obvious they aren't storming through the minors in 3 years. That ship has sailed.

Reality. Sucks.

Couldn't be more wrong with almost almost all of this post

Give us an example of guys who hit like Nimmala and Bonilla at 18 with simillar k/bb and became stars? Or even made it to the majors.

I am sure you can find some because nothing is black and white, but you are a statistically illiterate moron.

If you think that extreme performances in the first 200 at bats of a guys career mean nothing then... well nothing I can do....

Your history is out there for everyone to see. For 3 years you kept telling us Vlad was close. He's close. He's almost there. He's close.

Out of the at least 100 times you told us Vlad was close, exactly 0 times did he return to hitting as his minor league numbers suggested he could.

You were completely wrong, but since data doesn't matter to you there is nothing I can do.

'Vlad's close'!

Vlad hit's .290 with a .400 slugging percentage

LTBF - told you he was gonna come back, hitting .290 again. Told you he was close.

OK. So f*** you. Nimalla is awesome. Bonilla is awesome.

They are hitting .200 combined with a terrible k rate. Neither can stick in low A Dunnedin (Bonilla can't even get there).

But LTBF has looked at their swings... stats don't matter.

Vlad and Bo both had their best season in 2021. Their ability to get nice MLB seasons out of late 20s players has been much worse last couple of years. Like they are not able to get the same types of seasons out of Varsho and Chapman that they were out of Semien and Teoscar.

 

Like the ability to have any positive suprises in the majors or minors is gone.

I know people will say this is on the players, but if so maybe it is like the Jays aren't getting the players that can can absorb all the info needed to succeed in 2024.

Sort of a debate around like should they put away the ipads and go old school? Too much data analytics? Or not enough ?

Or maybe other teams have some sort of screening to find the players that can take in all the info and are coachable.

Even if you look at the group of top 100 prospects they had back in 2021, literally none of them have had sustained success at the MLB level.

 

Manoah came on strong but regressed

Kirk came on strong and regressed

Pearson can't even be a consistent reliever

Martin is barely anything

SWR isn't much either but only spent a brief time as a Jays prospect

Moreno is not looking like anything special right now

Groshans flopped

 

Something is rotten

Vlad and Bo both had their best season in 2021. Their ability to get nice MLB seasons out of late 20s players has been much worse last couple of years. Like they are not able to get the same types of seasons out of Varsho and Chapman that they were out of Semien and Teoscar.

Like the ability to have any positive suprises in the majors or minors is gone.

It's a tough league for sure. Impact talent would still dominate it at 18 or 19. Major league players would hold their own.

 

Someone brought up Paul Dejong the other day, which wouldn't be a bad outcome in some ways. However Paul Dejong is a 'short peak' guy.

 

If Nimalla is Paul Degong it will take him forever to get here and he'll have a decent 2031, then hit his decline just when he hits arb.

 

The long peak guys f***ing destroy these leagues, do two levels a year, and you get them from age 22 through 30. Long peak guys. that's what you need.

Long peak guy. Good enough to get to MLB early. Good enough to stay late. Video game stats in the A ball.

Short peak guy. Takes a while to get to MLB not good enough to play much after 30. Holds his own in the A ball.

Not a guy. Hit's .200 with lots of strike outs in the A ball. May look good here and there especially if repeating a level, but gets stuck in double a.

There are exceptions to the rule

Worth noting that our A-ball team plays in the Florida State League which is a death sentence for hitters, so you have to grade them on a curve. They have the 2nd youngest avg batters age in the FCL and yet are 3rd best in run scoring. Looking at OPS alone is a bit deceptive. By wRC+, given most of these players are still younger for the level, they seem to be holding their own:

 

Victor Arias, 123 wRC+

Edward Duran, 115 wRC+

Yhoangel Aponte, 107 wRC+

Manuel Beltre, 105 wRC+

Tucker Toman, 101 wRC+

 

Like I don't think they are going to develop into can't-miss superstar-level talents, but they can still turn into useful big leaguers given how young they are. I agree though, there's a distinct lack of impact hitting prospects in this pipeline at the moment beyond maybe Orelvis. And even then, he's has a career .239 batting average in the minors which raises red flags for me in his ability to make contact at the major league levels.

It's a tough league for sure. Impact talent would still dominate it at 18 or 19. Major league players would hold their own.

Someone brought up Paul Dejong the other day, which wouldn't be a bad outcome in some ways. However Paul Dejong is a 'short peak' guy.

If Nimalla is Paul Degong it will take him forever to get here and he'll have a decent 2031, then hit his decline just when he hits arb.

The long peak guys f***ing destroy these leagues, do two levels a year, and you get them from age 22 through 30. Long peak guys. that's what you need.

https://www.milb.com/player/enmanuel-bonilla-806962

Emanuel Bonilla hitting .243 .286 .414 with a 2 to 23 bb/k in a super low league he should be dominating. This is like the guys that play at 9:00 am before the real low level A league team plays.

He sucks. Nimilla and Bonilla have both had horrible seasons and yes they are young, but the odds are against them now.

I'm sort of double posting but the other guy mentioned in his thread we have no international players with fire, like Julio-Rod or Sota except for Vlad.

Does anyone have any concept of what those 3 did at 18 ? Really good players reach A+ at 18 hitting .345 with awesome k/bb. Players that are destined to make the majors hold their own at these leagues.

You know what Bonilla and Nimalla's future is? Go to New Hampshire watch the Beltre and De'Jesus guy. Nimmilla and Bonilla will be lucky if they get that far.

https://www.milb.com/player/enmanuel-bonilla-806962

His name is Bonilla. Emanuel Bonilla. He is 18. He is international. He wasn't even allowed to try the low A league that the Indian guy sucked at but was put at some even lower league that isn't even A.

He started off "hot" after 6 games looking good and everyone thought he might not suck but his k/bb was 0 to 8 even when hitting .400 the first 6 games.

However the 0 / 8 bb/k after 5 games was a pretty good hint he sucks, and he does suck in some low, super low a league that he should be dominating even at 18.

They all suck. Every single one of them, whether 18 or 27, no matter what color.