Olerud363

What's crazy is Vlad killed fastballs as recently as 2022 (.586 SLG and .403 xwOBA against 4SFB's that year). It's gotten progressively worse since despite exit velocity, hard hit rate, etc, still being excellent. There's not a doubt in my mind now that the next team Vlad is on will unlock his potential.

No doubt in my mind that is the Red Sox. He will be the next David Ortiz for them and in 2040 he will be a 350 pound 41 year old hitting .300 with 30 homers for them still and having a big good bye party.

Vlad Guerrero Blue Jays .280 .170 homers 750 rbis mostly sadness

Vlad Guerrero Jr. Red Sox .330 500 homers unbelievable happiness and a legend that adds to the fabric of the city.

2028 Commissioner Shapiro Speech

"Baseball is a game of legends, a game of generations, a game for fathers and sons. There is no greater Joy for me as commissioner than to watch the 2028 Red Sox/Yankees rivalry lead by legendary hitters Juan Soto, and Vladimir Guerrero JR. Which one is better? I will leave that to the fans to debate, but the game is healthy, the fans are happy, and the Red Sox/Yankees rivalry is better than ever. Let's all cheer for Vlad and Juan Soto. Congratulations Yankees and Red Sox"

(That was a special baseball message of happiness from future commissioner Mark Shapiro)

Alan 'no power bro' Roden with his 7th. Only hitting .268 or so this year... but k/bb is dynamite if you believe in that kind of thing.

And on pace for maybe 16 homers this year. Still 'no power bro' ?

Jace 'no power bro' Bohufren hit his 3rd. Hitting .237 which is awful for a 'no power bro' guy with 3 homers. Likely have to put him in the bad bin with Nimalla and Bonilla (though Bonilla all the way up to 6 walks to go with 27 ks).

Spencer Horwitz went 5 for 6 today with 2 doubles, a home run and 6 RBIs

Orelvis 'popup' Martinez hit his 14th and has his average down to .236 so he is having a very Orelvis 'popup' Martinez like season

Spencer 'no power bro' Horwitz 2/4 now hitting .335 with 22 doubles but only 4 homers.

Spencer was taken out of the game, headed to Oakland? Hit by pitch ? Do not know.

Someone should start a GDT for the Yankees game tonight.

At this point the WC3 race is really happening. We have 8 other teams to keep an eye on so maybe a GDT for each one. However if the Legends can beat the Twinkies tonight Jays are only 3 out of WC3 with 100 to play.

Hell last year they were like 3.5 out with 30 to play. This would be nothing.

Everyone cheer for the Legends. It would also put the Forever-Dynasty (a.k.a. the Orioles) 5 games back. They aren't even in a division race really.

Would be pretty funny if the 84 win -80 run differential Jays got to play Seattle in the Wild card round at Safecu while Orioles with a +200 run differential and 105 wins also were just a wild card and had to play the up and coming Royals.

Lol @ all those people who were talking about the Jays becoming a pitchers park. Imagine pushing the fences in on a park that was already considered a hitters park and yet using 1 year of data to form your opinions. Some of the people of this board truly must work with Atkins based on their opinions lol.

Does the data show it is a hitters park again? Still seems like the ball doesn't go anywhere. It not really the distances but something about the high fences that create a seel with the stands effects the wind currents I think.

Like Vlad's second ball didn't go as far as it should have, and I think it would have been out in the old configuration (a little better wind a little shorter fence).

Only 2 pages for a game thread for the biggest victory of the year?

 

The Toronto Blue Jays, a negative differential pansy hitting team with beta GM, a con-artist president and the worst group of mentally unhinged fans in baseball beats the forever-dynasty/best organization in baseball ?

 

Hrs Baltimore I don't 10-2 or something

Runs Baltimore 24-8 or something

wins 2-2

I kind of feel sorry for the forever-dynasty. What is happening to them reminds me of the 2022 Blue Jays. Everyone thought the Jays would be the best team in the East for a while.... but the Yankees decided to have a random 60-20 start and ended that.

2024 everyone thinks the Orioles will be having a forever-dynasty and the Yankees decide to have a random 44-15 or whatever it is start and the Orioles might be 5 games behind already.

Never in doubt. Jays Win, Jays Win!!

Only 2 pages for a game thread for the biggest victory of the year?

The Toronto Blue Jays, a negative run differential pansy hitting team with beta GM, a con-artist president and the worst group of mentally unhinged fans in baseball beats the forever-dynasty/best organization in baseball ?

Hrs Baltimore I don't know 10-2 or something

Runs Baltimore 24-8 or something

wins 2-2

Not sure if the EV and LA data just isn't reliable, and I am glad Vladdy hit a spectacular blast to help our great Blue Jays team in the 8 team WC3 race

 

but...

 

EV=103 LA=33 distance = 356?

In 2021 a Vladdy oppo, same spot, same EV, 28 degrees went 395 and hit the second deck ...

Ball different, but that doesn't explain everything. Other players are getting distance still...

Ohtani, Judge and Vladdy all hit it 105 mph 30 degrees. What are the distances?

420, 420, and 375. lol

we will find out later in Vlad's career that he was corking his bad or something super dumb and that was ruining the trajectory

Not sure if the EV and LA data just isn't reliable, and I am glad Vladdy hit a spectacular blast to help our great Blue Jays team in the 8 team WC3 race

but...

EV=103 LA=33 distance = 356?

Seems a little low so thought I'd look at some similar hits from the yesterday

s*** dudes. Check out this random game between LA Dodgers and Pittsburgh

Ohtani EV=105 LA = 32 distance = 415

McCuthecn EV = 93 LA = 33 distance = 357

Andy Page EV = 101 LA = 37 distance = 392

If Vladdy's fly balls don't go as far as they should because of stupid spin then his expected average and OPS is just crap and he is getting what he deserves

KK was so damn good last year. 2.8 fWAR and 3.9 bWAR. His batting line was a lot of fluff though. Seems like they got a best case scenario last year and paid a bit of a premium for it this year and now they are on the lower end of his outcomes.

 

And even with bringing him back, we really need another OF. One that can at least share time with KK but ideally a full-time player with a good stick. Then lock in IKF at 3B and Schneider at 2B (great stick for a 2B). That would make the lineup look a lot better without sacrificing too much defense.

I also wonder if the oppo approach just doesn't work with dead balls. Bo/Vlad/Teoscar regularly hit no doubt bombs the other way in 2021, now all the oppos like fall on the track.

If the ball is in fact dead this year, I think Turner may have been impacted the most out of anyone. He's got 4 balls off the very upper part of the fence. Close enough to where another 1% in distance (or even less) and they are gone.

 

If you click on his statcast page, you kind of wonder how they didn't go out based on where they are on the map:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/justin-turner-457759?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

I haven't been keeping track of EVs as much lately as I've been busy with work and honestly not following as closely as other years because of the mediocre boring team.

However I used to check the EV box scores every night for anything odd. Curious if other people have caught weird things.

The weirdest one I've seen this year is a Vlad fly ball out in Kansas City that was like 109 mph 31 degrees. That should go 440 but it went 390. Not sure if it was a EV misreading, bad spin, or a weird dead ball (like maybe in a batch some are deader than others).

Anybody else notice any other weird ones? How do Judge and Soto dominate? Their EVs are similar to Vlad's. Just such a weird thing that Vlad can't keep up with them (or even with Schneider and Varsho at least in terms of homers).

I've followed since 1988. There was always joy. Always a reason to watch. The darkest seasons had bits of hope.

There was always a Delgado and Green, or Wells and Rios, or Vlad and Bichette. There was always a reason to smile.

Now there is nothing and no chance of anything until 2030.

Things can change. Just like negative surprises can happen, positive ones can too.

However from A-ball to the Majors this is the most joyless, hopeless piece of crap version of the Toronto Blue Jays I've ever seen.

Longest Jays have gone without winning seson

 

94, 95, 96, 97

2001, 2002

2004, 2005

2009

2012, 2013

2017, 2018, 2019

 

Now a downturn until 2030? That would be the longest downturn in franchise history. We have more playoff spots now. I think in every year except 1996, 2002, 2010 and 2018, 2019 Jays would have been gunning for a wild card spot. It didn't always work out and sometimes went into an insane disaster.

 

Going until 2030 without like the 85 win team of a bit of hope would be the worst stretch in franchise history.

And this is why the fans are really pissed. There is little hope.

Gone from one of the greatest batches of prospects I've ever seen as a fan to the darkest most hopeless stretch in franchise history potentially starting.

In 2021 Jays were where the Orioles are now... 100 win young talent with unlimited potential and it collapsed to nothing. A generation lost.

Vlad, Bichette, Kirk, Moreno, Martin, Groshans, Orelvis, Pearson, Manoah, healthy Romano, Biggio not yet fully collapsed, Woods Richardson

Keep in mind Moreno was hitting .380 with massive power and a minor thumb injury (or so we thought at the time), Groshans and Martin were hitting getting on base at a .400 clip and the power would come (we thought)

Orelvis was destroying A-ball as a teenager .290 .350 .600, unlimited power, and had not yet become "Mr. Popup". Vlad was Albert Pujols, Bo was Cory Seager. Kirk was Edgar Martinez at Catcher, Moreno was Pudge Rodriquez. Unlimited potential. Unlimited Joy as a baseball fan.

It collapsed to nothing. All to nothing.

We were the Orioles on July 25th 2021, unlimited potential, unlimited joy ahead. A generational cycle. A once in a lifetime batch of prospects.

And now it is collapsed to 70 wins a year 1.5 million attendance while the Orioles get the generational team.

I'll do this because I know Jays24 can't do math.

 

Here is the W/L record and winning % for the best 4 year stretches the team has had since 1993

 

2020-2024 304 W 242 L 0.557%

2014-2017 341 W 307 L 0.526%

2005-2008 336 W 312 L 0.518%

1990-1993 368 W 280 L 0.568%

 

So - unequivocally, this recent stretch by the Jays is THE BEST 4 year run since 1990-1993. Did the team win in the playoffs? No they did not, but whether you like it or not, winning in the playoffs is almost a coin flip (which I know is a VERY difficult concept for lots of fans and people on this board) and the Jays were favored to win 2 of our 3 playoff series during that stretch. However, it is pretty clear this regime has been successful since they arrived in 2016. Is that success coming to an end? Yes, I think it probably is and we'll now go into a downturn until around 2030. This is a very typical cycle for MLB teams. It's the reality of being a fan of most MLB teams.

Longest Jays have gone without winning seson

94, 95, 96, 97

2001, 2002

2004, 2005

2009

2012, 2013

2017, 2018, 2019

Now a downturn until 2030? That would be the longest downturn in franchise history. We have more playoff spots now. I think in every year except 1996, 2002, 2010 and 2018, 2019 Jays would have been gunning for a wild card spot. It didn't always work out and sometimes went into an insane disaster.

Going until 2030 without like the 85 win team of a bit of hope would be the worst stretch in franchise history.

I went to Camden Yards to see a game back in 2017 or 2018 with a group of guys. Loved the park - it was incredible, but I remember thinking how sad it was that the place was almost empty. I was recently thinking about how much more fun it would be to go watch the O's play now, given they're coming off a 100+ win season and on pace for another this year. I just saw a stat they still only average 25K fans, which is 56% of capacity. It is up 26% from last year, but still rather grim. Hopefully the shithole that is Baltimore starts to support their new dynasty and fills that gorgeous ballpark.

 

It sad that Pittsburgh's attendance is also s***, but more justified by a cheap owner and middling team. The dome is still on average 83% full these days (albeit that is dropping).

Baltimore had great attendance in the 90s. In their up-cycle from 2012-2016 they averaged something between 2.2 million and 2.4.

They started at about 1.3 million at the bottom of their cycle, and I wouldn't be surprised if they finish at 2.2 to 2.7 million this year being in a crazy 110 win division title race with the legendary NY Yankees.

Probably will end up being a 2.5-3 million a year attendance team for many years.

The market is not as good as the Jays market but unfortunately the Jays market is very picky. Jays could easilly be under 1.5 million in 2026.

Jays have the potential to be the 3rd best market after Yankees and Dodgers and that is why Shapiro should be send down to live in a van by the river.

Instead they will make him commissioner.

The only solution is the next GM has to be either Canadian or young enough they still need to make their mark. They need to care more than the disfunctional malcontents on this message board and Shapiro does not.

I half think Orelvis might hit .230 with 30 homers in any league from single A through the majors because the quality of infield defense won't matter.... they all will catch his popups no matter what.

 

Compared to Vlad who probably lost a lot coming to the majors because major league infields were much better scooping up his 107 mph ground balls.

 

So sure. Orelvis 'popup' Martinez. Call him up and he still has time to lead the Jays in homers.

If you put Vlad back in AA he'd hit .370 again hammering ground balls at the future Russ Adams of the world. But in the majors he hits .280.

If you put Orelvis back to AA he'd hit .230 because the future Russ Adams can catch his popups fine. He'd hit .230 in the majors too

I mean not literally obviously, just that Orelvis 'popup' Martinez might not lose as much coming to the majors as other guys.

Or maybe he'd hit .160 with 30 homers... that probably helps this team nevertheless.

We need to hit some bombs so I thought to take a chance on Orelvis while keeping his glove out of the lineup.

I half think Orelvis might hit .230 with 30 homers in any league from single A through the majors because the quality of infield defense won't matter.... they all will catch his popups no matter what.

Compared to Vlad who probably lost a lot coming to the majors because major league infields were much better scooping up his 107 mph ground balls.

So sure. Orelvis 'popup' Martinez. Call him up and he still has time to lead the Jays in homers.

Well if there any justice in this world and you wanted to win games, the lineup would be:

 

Varsho cf

Schneider lf

Guerrero 1b

Martinez dh

Bichette 2b

Lukes rf

Vladdy 1b

Jansen/Kirk c

Falefal SS

Barger 3b

That's not bad either.

I actually think Vlad has the same WAR whether he plays 1st or 3rd because of his arm. If he's a negative 20 defense guy he wouldn't take a hit at third because he can make the throws.

At this point Howritz projects better and makes more sense than Martinez.

As a moral issue I do not believe in allowing humans to waste one or more of their prime years in Buffalo. Martinez is not in his prime.

You're right about one thing. It does sound crazy.

If you believe that there is a psychological boost if you hit in the right spot it isn't crazy.

Devon White pre-91 was far worse than Pillar.

This is 100% false. Good news is teams can still win, even with imperfect managers (because managers don't actually have a huge impact on results).

 

Your claim is a consistent lineup will produce better than one that is constantly changing to suit matchups and to provide certain players with rest. It's interesting you use Cito as an example, give he did implement platoon situations (back when they were a lot less common). Nevertheless, what are you basing this claim on? Is there an article you read that analyzed this? or is this just a gut feeling, based off how managers/teams used to play baseball 25 years ago? I'm not sure I've seen any analysis done on this, but I do believe most MLB teams have moved away from strict/set lineups - which tells me it's not true in most cases. My gut says some players do prefer to consistently hit in the same spot/role on a daily basis and for other players, it doesn't matter one bit to them (and then there's the debate whether how they feel about it actually impacts their results). It's probably up to each manager to understand his players and develop strategies accordingly. I highly doubt a one size fits all approach is the way to go.

I think for some players it could help. I think Pillar was another guy that got banged up, hurt his hand, and that knocked his numbers down after 2015, but would have loved to see him hit leadoff.

It sounds crazy, and I'm not saying that given Pillar as a .250 .300 .400 hitter hitting him leadoff would have made any sense

More that, what if, given the Devon White treatment (White was awful before Cito told him he was a leadoff hitter) Pillar was 5% better ? And that led to more runs scored. That is exactly what happened with Devon White.

Like maybe someone else should have been lead off, but maybe without 'respect' White would have hit worse, leading to a worse team.

This is 100% false. Good news is teams can still win, even with imperfect managers (because managers don't actually have a huge impact on results).

 

Your claim is a consistent lineup will produce better than one that is constantly changing to suit matchups and to provide certain players with rest. It's interesting you use Cito as an example, give he did implement platoon situations (back when they were a lot less common). Nevertheless, what are you basing this claim on? Is there an article you read that analyzed this? or is this just a gut feeling, based off how managers/teams used to play baseball 25 years ago? I'm not sure I've seen any analysis done on this, but I do believe most MLB teams have moved away from strict/set lineups - which tells me it's not true in most cases. My gut says some players do prefer to consistently hit in the same spot/role on a daily basis and for other players, it doesn't matter one bit to them (and then there's the debate whether how they feel about it actually impacts their results). It's probably up to each manager to understand his players and develop strategies accordingly. I highly doubt a one size fits all approach is the way to go.

The 1993 lineup using analytics would be

Henderson

Alomar

Molitor

Olerud

Carter

Fernandez

While

Sprague

Borders

Using respect it was

Henderson

White

Alomar

Carter

Olerud

Molitor

Fernandez

Sprague

Borders

Probably didn't make much of a difference really. And a second inning of Olerud, Molitor, Fernandez was on on base party. Sprague should have driven in 150.

I see what yer getting at .. haha .. but how can you know how Cito would 'feel' about certain players in today's team?

Devo had wheels and stole the right base when needed ... Robbie also could steal ....Blue Jays this year have speed btw,

and the new stealing rules..they should run more ... speed and a decent OBP at the top of the order is better than a power hitter imho..

Olerud needed the odd day of rest ... I LOVE Jansen at 148 games! 40 homers! and come on man.... 1992 and 1993 line-ups were perfect ... and so were the results.

The main point being we can't have a different line-up everyday, get the best one and run it. It will get the good players rolling. And you sound like a Cito hater.

Glad you weren't advising him haha ...and anyway your line-up wouldn't be that bad .. haha

If you wanted an everyday lineup here it is

Varsho cf

Schneider lf

Guerrero 3b

Barger dh

Bichette ss

Springer rf

Horwitz 1b

Jansen/Kirk c

Falefal 2b

Good left right balance. Find out what you have in Horwitz and Barger. Play that lineup every single day until Oct 1 2025. I'd watch it.

 

Bring back the Cito Gaston management style! ... Scheinder had NEVER had a stablised line-up...

players can't get on a roll if they have no stability, keep changing their line-up spot, get benched

when they are hot, get bench because of stats people, lefty - righty match ups etc.... all

non-sense imo ....

Cito management style was not stability. It was full of prejudice and favoritism and the perception of stability was only because he refused to move his favorites from their deserved line up spot.

So with Cito you had Devon White hitting leadoff even carrying a .300 on base percentage in 92, Joe Carter hitting 3rd or 4th even as an old -2 WAR player in 1997.

However other players had no stability. John Olerud could have himself benched for old Pat Tabler or Jacob Brumfield. Green hit all over the place and was sat for Ruben Sierra. Travis Snider same thing

So Cito Gaston lineup for 2024 Jays would be

Kiermaier

Kiner-Falefa

Springer

Guerrero

Turner

Bichette

Jansen 148 games Kirk 14

Varsho/Scheider platoon

Biggio/Clemente platoon

Kiermair leadoff because no way you put power hitters lead off, the RBI guys need to drive in runs. Kiner-Falefa second because he looks like a #2 hitter and can handle the bat. The vet George Springer 3rd to get some RBIs and Guerrero 4th.

Turner is another vet and needs a good line up spot, so 5th every day, Bichette 6th every day,

Jansen for 148 games because no way you put a base clogger in the game unless you have to.

Young guys need to earn their way so they can platoon for the first 7 or 8 years

Take an average player at random like Isiah Kiner Falafa. Even he hit .320 at 18 in his rookie league.

Albeit it took him to age 22 to get a homerun. Is their anyone in Jays system as good as Isiah?

Of course there is if any of them can play defense.

If Leo Jiminez can play good defense (which I think I heard he could) he would be terrific. He has like a .390 minor league on base percentage and way more homers than Falefa

Someone said Jays currently don't have a Vlad/Bo

I think Jiminez/Horwitz could out-WAR Vlad-Bo any year except 2021 if they can play defense. That's a big if. Part of that is just a reflection of how dissapointing Vlad/Bo are compared to their 2017/2018/2021 numbers.

Here is a fun one! Mookie f***ing Betts

 

2012, 19 years old, NYPL

 

71 games and 0 home runs. only 8 2B and 1 3B. That's a .307 SLG. .659 OPS.

Yes, he did hit .267 and had a really good K/BB rate.

 

2013 he figured out how to hit for power, never looked back. MLB in 2014 and immediately a Superstar.

Right. Great bb/k. 32 to 30. If Bonilla walks 27 straights times without striking out he'll be up there too.

Ramirez did struggle at times. But his bad season at 20 had him in the majors that year for 15 games.

Is there anyway Nimmala or Bonilla play 15 games with the Jays in 2 years?