Olerud363

Even if the Orioles wanted to rehabilitate Guerrero they will not be acquiring right handed hitters. Could you imagine even a fixed Vlad in Camden?

 

Top exit velocities

 

1. Guerrero 118 mph 33 degrees 420 feet out deep left center corner thing.

2. Guerrero 117 mph 29 degrees 418 feet out deep left center corner thing.

3. Guerrero 114 mph 18 degrees 392 feet single left field

4. Guerrero 114 mph -1 degrees double play

5. Guerrero 112 mph 28 degrees 401 feet out center field

 

Guerrero expected performance 5/5 3 homeruns

Guerrero actual performance in Camden 1/5, single 5 outs.

This assumes he is getting good launch angles but still has the weird spin thing, and Camden eats all the long balls to left.

Varsho maybe they want and Gaussman if he is not injured.

Gaussman, Varsho for 3 Orioles prospects in their top 8 ? Maybe they even give Holliday?

Maybe too much: how about selling off some bullpen guys and trade Guerrero for Holliday.

Even if the Orioles wanted to rehabilitate Guerrero they will not be acquiring right handed hitters. Could you imagine even a fixed Vlad in Camden?

Top exit velocities

1. Guerrero 118 mph 33 degrees 420 feet out deep left center corner thing.

2. Guerrero 117 mph 29 degrees 418 feet out deep left center corner thing.

3. Guerrero 114 mph 18 degrees 392 feet single left field

4. Guerrero 114 mph -1 degrees double play

5. Guerrero 112 mph 28 degrees 401 feet out center field

Guerrero expected performance 5/5 3 homeruns

Guerrero actual performance in Camden 1/5, single 5 outs.

They can't possibly run this team back in 2025.

Just retool for 2026 at this point.

Trade everyone who is only controllable through 2025 and might have any value.

Salary dump everyone that can be dumped including Vlad.

Consider trading Gausman and Varsho as well even though they are under control in 2026.

Justin Trudeau needs to intervene.

1. Trudeau fires Shapiro

2. Trudeau fires himself.

3. Everyone working under Trudeau and/or Shapiro is fired, fined 1.2 million dollars and forced to live in vans by the river

4. Canada and the Blue Jays have a new beginning and we can hope that by the year 2027 things may be better.

Spencer Horwitz. Who are the 10 most comparable minor league players? Wade Boggs hit .318 .410 .386 as a minor leaguer. Was in the minor leagues for a while but not as long as Spencer. Spencer is .305 .412 .466 so a bit more pop.

If Wade Boggs same genetics came up today what would he hit in the minors and majors? It's a different game so I assume he'd strike out a bit more.

leadoff double for KC = game over

 

it's actually over

 

the Jays cannot come back from this even though it is 0-0

Came on here to put a over the top negative end of times comment after that lead off double, but already done.

Thankfully Royals look like they will put of a few this inning so will be a 5-0 loss not a 1-0.

Congratulations to the Kansas City Royals and Bobby Witt Jr. for creating a great franchie.

Generational playoff wins

Bo/Vlad Jays - 0

Bobby Witt Royals - 10 (he'll be there for 20 years remember)

Gunnar Henderson Orioles - 20

Vlad Guerrero Jr Red Sox - 8

Juan Soto Yankees - 21

Spencer Horwitz Jays - 0

Mattingly can’t hit for them, it’s not his fault Bichette and Vlad think they already know it all. Even after his back injury stole his power, he still had a good batting average and on base ability. And that was playing in great pain.

 

Don’t slander an all time great just because we have players who think they are too good to learn

Actually Mattingly peaked at 160 wRC+ in 1986, but was an average hitter between 1990 and 1995... He was like hitting .290 with 9 homers in a game that had transitioned to big time power with big time average so hit .290 with 9 homers though looking respectable paled with the true greats like Frank Thomas (like .350 .450 .600 with 40 homers )

Also keep in mind that Olerud was out-performing Mattingly from 90-95 however Cito thought Olerud needed to be sat down for Jacob Brumfield.

Thus 1990s Mattings is below Jacob Brumfield, which maybe is why all the Jays hitters are hitting like Jacob Brumfield. Maybe Cito is still behind the scenes giving them the same hitting tips he gave Brumfield.

Teoscar Hernandez on the difference between the way the Dodgers prep for games versus the "other" teams he has played for:

 

“The way they prepare their games and all the plans and all that stuff, it's a little different than the ones that I've been with,” Hernandez explained. “That makes a difference when you’re going to play games.”

Modern baseball is a massive proprietary war of game planning and counter game planning. As fans we can't know exactly what each teams plan is because by design they are keeping it secret from the other teams (and thus the fans).

All we can is look at results and patterns.

It should be obvious to everyone that the Jays hitters have been solved and neither the coaches nor the players have any counter strategy. Whether it is bad coaching, or players who are not receptive to coaching or players who not have the minds to be coached that I do not know.

The silver lining and one small ray of hope is that perhaps the new crew coming up have the minds to be coached and strategize... Barger, Schneider, Orelvis, Horwitz, Clemente, give them all 700 PAs and find out!

I think he's fixable but it will probably take a team other the Jays to do it.

Special Message from commissioner Rob Manfred:

HomeRunHomer is an astute poster. We have no doubt that when Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is moved to the Boston Red Sox he will be the player Blue Jays fans dreamed on. From 2026 to 2035 Guerrero Jr. and Devers will form a combination even better than Ramirez and Ortiz.

As commissioner my job is to keep the game healthy and for that we need happy fans, so I certainly hope Toronto fans will not be poor sports when Guerrero wins the triple crown with the rival Red Sox. Smile as Vlad's drives go over the monster, laugh as his 80 hit tool finally shows up, do a dance when Vlad Sr. cheers Vlad Jr's .350 average and batting title as the son beats the Father.

Remember the young 19 year old you dreamed on and enjoy it when he finally reaches his potential year after year. Just because it is not with your team is no reason to frown.

Baseball. A game of legends, a game of generations, a game of joy, a game for the fans.

This has been a message from commissioner Rob Manfred.

We used to make fun of Cito and other hitting coaches "Pull dat ball" philosophy. In '24, we salute them as oracles, and beg our players to adopt the doctrine.

A Cito team .250 .300 with 750 runs scored would be great in this offensive environment. The problem was they were getting out scored by the Red Sox and Yankees by 100+ runs in 2008-2010 and 200 runs 1995-1997.

So a Cito team that managed the same hitting in a different offensive environment would be fine, but if the Cito team translated to 2023 levels would be like a .200 hitting team with .270 on base 200 homers and 600 runs.

And Vlad used to be able to oppo it to the second deck in right... so not like 'pull dat ball' is the answer, what about oppo it like he used to?

And Bo 3 homers one to each field

What happened to that? It's just as much that they aren't hitting for power line to line like they used to. And I think if you look the stats they are just hitting like 60% less long fly balls. Like if you look at Vlad Fly balls over any distance 420 feet, 400, 380, 360 it's 40% less between 2021 and 2023.

Bellinger didn't get released. He was non-tendered and then got $17.5M on a 1 year deal on the open market. If you were thinking of putting Vlad on waiver right now, with the intent of just letting him go for nothing - that would be STUPID. Some team is going to be willing to pick up Vlad's current contract to see if they can fix him - or see if a change of scenery helps. They can then decide to go through the arbitration process at the end of the year, or non-tender him (if they think he's s***).

 

What would we get for him? I still think you'd get a legit prospect.

Bellinger was non-tendered because the Dodgers couldn't get a prospect for him because no team thought it was worth it to pay Bellinger and give up a prospect. Why would Vlad be any different right now?

If on Waivers maybe someone takes him but I doubt it. What team has an extra 18 million in payroll space and would use it on Vlad ? Most teams will be willing to take on extra salary for 2 months but not 5 so I doubt anyone would pick him up.

Special message from baseball commissioner Rob Manfred:

It has come to my attention that many poor sport Toronto fans are planning to boo Shohei Ohtani and even their own players tonight.

Please do not. Do not embarrass our sport. Baseball is a game of joy, a game of generations, a game for the fans. Your may have been disappointed that Shohei signed with the Dodgers but remember how joyful you felt for 40 minutes when you thought he signed with Toronto? Dodgers fans have felt that Joy for months so be be happy for their happiness.

This has been a special message from commissioner Rob Manfred.

Seems dumb that Barger didn't play any leftfield in AAA if that was potential spot for him to play in the bigs.

What you would expect out of bottom 5 organization.

(Someone passed on a poll where ...

1. Jays were in not in top 5

2. But 16 teams got votes so Jays not top 16

3. But a few teams didn't get votes because of onwership

so

4. Can kindof conclude Jays might be bottom 10

5. Saying bottom 5 is probably an Olerud363 style dooms day fan fiction as there must be 5-7 teams more retarded? Right?

)

Prediction:

 

this will not go well

Top exit velos

1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr 114 mph 4 degrees single

2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 112 mph 22 degrees (flyball out 404 feet to center)

3. Shohei Ohtani 108 mph 25 degrees (homerun 435 feet to center)

4. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 107 mph -1 degree (ground ball gidp)

5. Freddie Freeman 105 mph - 15 degree double right center

6. Mookie Betts 102 mph - 27 degrees 390 feet (homerun left field)

7. Mookie Betts 98 mph - 29 degrees 368 feet (homerun left field)

Elly is tied with Varsho right now....so that means Varsho is ALSO on pace for 11 WAR

Ely and Varsho are barely top 10. The true greats are

1. Mookie Betts

2. Gunnar Henderson

3. Juan Soto

4. Shohei Ohtani

5. Jose Altuve

6. Bobby Witt Jr.

7. Salvador Perez

8. Ely De La Cruz

9. Daulton Varsho

10. Jordan Westberg

Gunnar Henderson is under-rated on this board because of ODS (Orioles Denial Syndrome)

But does he? Going by recent WAR he has no value. He's reached the same stage WAR wise as Bellinger when he got released.

 

Bellinger had what was viewed to be a severe possibly unfixable mechanical problem and was possibly injured.

 

Is Vlad any different? Severe mechanical problem leading to ground balls and -20 feet due to bad spin on fly balls and potential long term hand/wrist/knee injuries.

July 7th 2021 has bothered me for a long time. The optimal launch angle is 25 to 30 degrees

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

55 7 Flyout 106.2 22 411 94.9 .870

16/30

Alex Verdugo

42 6 Home Run 102.4 33 410 82.3 .640

21/30

Vlad was 3 degrees under, Verdugo 3 degrees over. Vlad had 4 mph more. Verdugo pulled his just a bit more.

In retrospect this was the day the Jays lost their 2021 playoff spot. It was really the beginning of the end of the Vlad Jr. era. I felt great pain, but wasn't sure why, but deep inside I knew there was something fundamentally wrong with the spin off of Vlad's bat and with Vlad's mechanics even while in the midst of a historic run.

22 degrees, 105 mph, 411 feet -- if Vlad get's it a bit higher, or pulls it a bit more Jays win that game and it's a 2 game swing and a playoff spot...

33 degrees, 102 mph, 410 feet but pulled just a bit - a mediocre player hits it well and wins the game for the red sox. The ball goes the distance a ball hit like that should go...

fast forward 3 years...

31 degrees, 109 mph, 396 feet - extreme example but Vlad gets bad spin...

tonight when Ohtani hit's it at 109 mph and it goes 440... then Vlad hit's it 109 mph and it goess 405 caught at the fence cheer for them both.

God no. Despite all our frustrations with Vlad - he still has value on the trade market.

But does he? Going by recent WAR he has no value. He's reached the same stage WAR wise as Bellinger when he got released.

Bellinger had what was viewed to be a severe possibly unfixable mechanical problem and was possibly injured.

Is Vlad any different? Severe mechanical problem leading to ground balls and -20 feet due to bad spin on fly balls and potential long term hand/wrist/knee injuries.

Special request from Commissioner of baseball Rob Manfred

It is come to my attention that some Toronto fans have a bad attitude. As commissioner my job is to make sure the game is successful, and a successful game needs happy and healthy fans. I personally do not have attachment to any particular team and every fanbases happiness is my happiness. When Shohei Ohtani hits a deep drive I share the Dodger fan's joy. When the Baltimore Orioles develop an allstar at every position I share the Orioles fan's joy. When Bobby Witt Jr. develops as expected I share the Kansas City fan's joy. When the NY Yankees have their 33rd straight winning season and 29/33 years in the playoffs I share their joy.

As commissioner I cannot stand by and watch one selfish fanbase have such a bad attitude. I know, your hero, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has failed and cannot be saved, but please understand, we learned much from Vladimir Guerrero Jr.s collapse, and have institured policies so that no other fanbase will ever face such a dissapointment. The joy the Baltimore fans will experience the next 10 years, as each of their players develops not only to expectations but to exceed expectations will be in part from lessons we have learned From Guerrero, Kirk, Manoah, and to a degree Bo Bichette's failures. When Bobby Witt does 40/40 it will be in part to due these lessons learned as well.

So enough with your poor attitude, be happy that your troubles gave us important data points that will bring joy to the other 29 fan bases.

It’s how far Fatso has fallen that surprises even an extreme pessimist like myself. This one in a generation prospect can hardly even make loud outs or get the ball in the air. Making the ASG would be vomit inducing. Like here’s an all star 1st baseman with a sub 700 OPS ?

He's not making the all star game with a sub 700 OPS. He will be released along side Atkins this November. That's it. Just a holding pattern until then.

I know a lot of people are getting annoyed at Orioles reality. I hate the Orioles too, so I am as annoyed as anyone. Terminator brought up a great idea though, 'Orioles fan fiction'. Since we all hate the Orioles, Orioles fan fiction, will have bad things happening to the Orioles.

"Once upon a time there was a team called the Baltimore Orioles. Once upon a time there was a great player from a far away land who was the best hitter and the best pitcher. He was both. And the twitter trade rumors told the Orioles fans they had landed this great player. And then the certified reporters told the Orioles fans they had landed this great player. The Oriole fans in Oriole land had never been happier and there was great cheer for a few hours until it turned out it was fake and the Orioles signed Daniel Vogelbach and Isiah Kiner-Falefa instead. This mental scar caused great damage to the Orioles fanbase and they took to writing unhinged diatribes and fighting with each other on their message board."

Note the above is a work of fiction. In reality the Orioles had a such a strong farm system they did partake in a fake bid for the great player from a far away land, and they were so deep in young players they had no need to sign Isiah Kiner Falefa or Daniel Vogelbach. The Oriole fans do not bicker with each other and in reality are mentally in a very good place. This has been Orioles fan fiction.

Damn what a hanger!

Vlad would have grounded it to short stop... probably at 109 mph... but still grounded it to short stop.

And if he did get it in the air it would have the weird Vlad spin on it that causes it to drop on the warning track...

I'm talking about designating Vlad now to save money. That's just not how it works, wishful thinking.

Yeah. There is actually some weird rule about that where you can only save the money if you release the guy in Spring Training? Like a specific date in late March.

If Vlad doesn't turn it around he will be non-tendered in November but not during the season.

That's not how it works, man. lol

Yeah. If they Jays really offerred 100 million more and the Yankees didn't match I believe Soto and his agent are obligated to take the highest offer... kind of a gentlemen's rule that they always have to take best offer in order to keep pushing Salaries up. At least that's my understanding.

Ohtani was a business decision not a baseball decision. He's a one-of-a-kind unicorn that brings in media and dollars that nobody else would. I don't believe they're going to do something like that again because there's nobody else in baseball like him. He transcends the game. Yankees might lock Soto up before then anyway, I don't mind the idea of the Jays bluffing and forcing the Yankees to up their bid, but I can't see us making a serious offer.

I don't think you can really bluff. They have to make an offer to actually get the Yankees to up their bid. My guess is the Jays will give the highest offer and Yankees will match it, a repeat of the Ohtani thing.

Basically they have payroll to spare after 2025 or even after this year if they release Vlad... so need to try and do something with that money.

There's no way I am reading all of that but from what I gather are you actually writing Orioles fan fiction? Please seek help

Writing Orioles fan fiction is actually a fun idea. Since I hate the Orioles my fan fiction will have bad things happening to them.

"Once upon a time there was a team called the Baltimore Orioles. They developed an all-star catcher who hit like Edgar Martinez (.320 .420 .540) through his first 500 PAs. He went to the all star game with his friend an all star pitcher. But then he lost his hitting ability and became a .230 .300 .330 hitter... and his friend lost it to. And they both struggled with severe obesity. And the Orioles fans were so disappointed they started writing unhinged diatribes and bickering with each other on their message board. No one was happy and no one was healthy in Oriole land"

(This was a work of Orioles fan fiction and is not based on reality, in reality the Orioles catcher is fit, happy and performing well and their fan base is happy and healthy)

There's no way I am reading all of that but from what I gather are you actually writing Orioles fan fiction? Please seek help

Everything I've predicted about the Orioles starting in mid 2021 when it became apparent they were destined to be a great franchise has come true (so far) so fiction it is not.

Nor am I a fan of the Orioles. Just a fan of baseball writing about all the great things happening to some of the baseball franchises. Orioles come up a lot because they have a lot of great things happening.