Olerud363

I didn’t know this. Always bet the over on those guys.

 

Edit: well, if they keep it within the limits I guess.

You gotta wonder if it's coincidence that Clement made 2 errors in a Sunday day game if the rumors of his partying are true....

Jace Bohrofen finally hits his first homer of the year.

At .300 .482 .438 he is in very much danger of entering the dreaded BJMB 'no power bro' club. Hopefully this homer leads to many more.

Otherwise he will end up hitting .350 .450 .450 in Buffalo age 25 through 28 while the Blue Jays will have to find a 38 year old DH somewhere to take his playing time.

Lukes went 6 for 6 tonight with a hr. Bring him up tomorrow and DFA Vogelbach. No brainer.

1. Lukes lf

2. Barger rf

3. Vlad dh/1b

4. Howritz dh/1b

5. Scheider 2b

6. Varsho cf

7. Jansen/Kirk c

8. IKF 3b

9. Jiminez ss

10. H. Jacket (mascot/good luck charm/inspiration)

Bo traded. Springer benched or released. Vlad stays to rebuild value, gets to bring HR Jacket back and have fun with the inexperienced guys.

Better than current team? More watchable than current team? Funner than Current team? Yes to all 3.

lol...

Mike Wilner "Romano has a higher save percentage than Mariano Rivera"

Mike Wilner "Romano blows his first save of the season. He'll blow another couple when all is said and done but c'mon folks, even the best (and Romero is one of the best) blow 3 or 4 a year"

Mike Wilner "As good as 2015 Osuna and doesn't beat his girlfriend"

(note: Wilner didn't really say the last one, has said something very close to the first two when the negative Nancie's complain about Romano)

Because they want to build a "sustainable contender" with nothing but vetrins.

Justin Turner final numbers .230 11 52 -2 WAR

Vogelbech final numbers .190 1 homer -1 WAR (amazing for so little playing time)

Springer final numbers .210 10 homer -3 WAR

Stats cast new bat speed numbers for these guys - like 61 mph (same as you)

Barger .290 25 80 .410 on base in AAA 78 mph bat speed 100 mph arm speed (freak of nature)

Howritz .340 .450 .490 in AAA 71 mph bat speed

IF ANYONE SHOULD BE TAKING LESSONS TO BECOME THE NEXT MATTINGLY IT's Howritz? f*** if Mattingly wants a protegee he is the only one deserving of Mattingly's lessons.

Go back 12 years and you basically have that because you'd have it all covered. First 6 years of team control + 6 years of minor league development so that even the slowest of prospects is caught in the sample.

 

Only thing missing would be the development of players acquired through trade or free agent signing.

 

The Jays f***ing suck. Reese Autkins needs to take a hike.

Logically that makes sense, but emotionally I want something that reflects Vlad/Bo/Manoah/Kirk going 20 -15 - 5 - 0 in WAR.

So if they go 10-10-10-10 you get more points than 20-15-5-0, like something that accounts for the emotional damage of buying Vlad Guerrero Jersey (175 bucks Canadian), Vlad Guerrero rookie card ($60 bucks Canadian), season tickets to see Vlad Guerrero bombs ($15,000) and then getting nothing for your $15235). That's like a months rent in this inflated economy wasted.

The Jays are 26th in MLB for draft pick WAR over the last 10 years - and pretty much all of our WAR has been from Manoah.

 

Our much hyped core has somehow all regressed substantially during what should be their prime and the farm is now near the bottom for top specs.

 

What has happened during this tenure to drafting and development? It has been an absolutely s*** show.

If you could create some stat that reflected 'development' of all types including major league maintenance of young players that have a good year or two the Jays would be historically bad.

For every player in the system under 27 give points for every time they take a step forward and take points if they take a step back. So you'd get points for developing Vlad and Bo to where they were in 2021, but lose points for un-developing them. Like maybe make some normal aging curve, and team loses points when the player is below the curve (for under 27).

Mark to Alex: You left the cupboard bare by makeing the playoff run and the most exciting Jays second half since 1993.

 

Fans to Mark: You have been here 9 years, the cupboard is bare, the baseball is boring and you stink.

Needs to resign tonight. The Nimalla failure is the final straw. Not that every 18 year old should hit the road running. But in 10 years ONE should. Nimalla was the last chance for the fans to have some hope. And still might be Paul Dejong in 2032, but that is not what we were promised. Were promised pipellines of exciting players and there are none.

It is 4:34. Schedule Shapiro resignation news conference for 7:00.

Because our front office has no f***ing balls.

The hate for Justin Turner will be hilarious in 2 weeks. I bet he'll be hitting .230 with negative WAR

1. For all you kids who follow the stats cast bat speed s*** you got Barger

2. For all you kids who think Horwitz .330 .450 .480 would translate to a decent mlb hitter (despite 'no power bro') you got Horwitz.

3. For all you kids who like 40 year olds that the stats cast doesn't like anymore you got Turner.

Don Mattingly played in an era where the average fastball was probably barely faster than the average breaking ball in 2024. That tells us a lot.

 

Snide aside, not every prospect has to be a 65 FV. Nimmala is clearly very raw, if he gets the warts out I'll certainly take a 50 FV prospect, something like Paul DeJong in his good years.

One of the hopes for this year was that Bonilla and Nimmala would become really good prospects and do what Vlad/Bo/Orelvis/Kirk did when teenagers... and come quick.

No doubt they have years to still become something. But the baseball gods took away two shots at some joy. The hope for a Paul Dejong in 2030 isn't joy, just a routine thing that every team has.

The Toronto Blue Jays - the most joyless, soulless, hopeless thing out there....

The amount of endorphins the Baltimore Orioles franchise provide their fans compared the the Blue Jays is like 1 million to 0. Was just in Baltimore and no one could stop talking about the pure joy their team brings the community...

Toronto - maybe we'll get Paul Dejong in many, many years!

any thought that yesterday's Garcia and Romano appearances may have been advertising? Baltimore could probably use the two of them. Holliday and nothing less would be required.

A Holliday trade would be the opposite of your usual super star for 5 minor leaguers (1st Juan Soto trade). Probably need 5 major leaguers for Holliday and whatever dead weight Baltimore wants to get rid of to clear roster spots.

Gausman, Varsho, Garcia and Romano. I don't know. Never really see a player like Holliday get traded.

Fat 1b men and no power bro. Not a major league player. 1b need power. Need to get the ball to the chicks in left field 35 times.

 

(actually he is on track for 3 WAR because walk rate and defense are better).

Quick glance at his fangraphs batted ball indicated line drive rate highest of his career as is his walk rate and plate discipline. Flyball rate low, pull dat ball rate low.

Overall this year he is the version of John Olerud that needed to be benched for Jacob Brumfield. Last 3 weeks he's been the Version of John Olerud that set the Jays and Mets batting average records.

You can see how he hit .400 in double aa. Could you imagine launching 114 mph ground balls and line drives at guys like Orelvis and Barger?

Vladdy has had a very confusing career with very confusing outcomes.

 

Now he's a high OBP no power bat whose HR totals have declined every single year.

 

But at the same time he's absolutely better than he was last year.

Fat 1b men and no power bro. Not a major league player. 1b need power. Need to get the ball to the chicks in left field 35 times.

(actually he is on track for 3 WAR because walk rate and defense are better).

Horwitz is Biggio without the defensive versatility or speed.

They are completely different minor league hitters. Howritz hit's .300 with 10 homers and a much lower k rate. Biggio was a .250 hitter.

Biggio minors: .252 ..373 .418

Majors: .228 .344 .380

You predict that Horwitz is going to lose 80 points of batting average while Biggio himself only lost 24?

Howritz will hit .280 .360 .400 or so and his defense will determine if that works (like he can't be a -20 defensive player). Or maybe he won't hit that, guys don't always reach their projections but it's still the best guess.

Biggio ... the guy hit .230 as a 22 year old college player in a ball. So the minor league numbers did tell us what he was, I think we just evaluated him at his best in 2018-2020, but the bad season in 2017 told us something to but non one paid attention.

If you look at the life time minor league numbers instead of best year it almost always is predictive.

I would love to see some Secret Base or Foolish Baseball level deep dive on front offices. There is something fundamentally wrong with the organization. I bet there is a story here. How can a team that is willing to spend, clearly trying to compete, purports to be progressive, and generally winning on trades and free agent signings be so absolutely terrible at constructing an offensive skill set?

I think they somehow ran some math and figured with the shift being gone that you could make a team that could score 750 runs by hitting .270 with 150 homeruns and getting on base. Mattingly signing hints at this.

You can also score 750 runs by hitting .235 with 250 homeruns. Looking back in baseball history the great run scoring teams of the 1980s like some of the Red Sox teams with Boggs and Greenwell can easilly be outscored by a bunch no names hitting 250 homeruns.

So say you have a 700 run scoring team and want to get home hitting experts in to get up 750. You could get there by getting them on some program to hit for more power, or you could get there by getting them to hit for better average.

Jays chose the latter which is way harder. Like there are probably crazy swing mechanics programs that get guys to hit more homers but hitting for better average doesn't work as well.

So maybe Varsho on the right program would hit .230 with 35 homers, but on the Jays program they tried to make him hit for a better average but that just got him to .230 with 20 homers.

League average is .239 .305 .388 and Vlad is like .274 .360 .388 or something close to that. So if 40 is average tool his 'game' hit tool is 50 or so, and power 40.

Be kind of hilarious if he wins a batting title with like a .315 15 80 rbi season in a year where no one hits .320. That happens once and a while. Then what do you do with him for hit tool?

I think he is destined to be the most over-rated player ever somehow. Like he will win a batting title with a .310 average and no power... so he'll have like 20 all star appearances, a homerun title, a batting title, a homerun contest title, 20 kids, big time counting numbers because somehow he'll play to 40 and never miss a game, and 12 WAR total when it is all done.

Be beside Harold Baines in the hall of fame.

His numbers as a prospect were really good though so I wouldn't say his grade was overrated at the time, he was striking out less than 10% of the time as a 19 year old in AAA with above average power.

 

His mechanics changed as a big leaguer even from 2021 till now, perhaps it was an injury that cause it but who knows.

What the hell else rating are you going to give to a guy who hits .400 at aa as a teenager? He had one season of 80 hit tool performance too right? I mean almost winning a batting title while hitting 48 homers is 80 hit tool.

Weird story, at 18, 19 and 22 in the 99.99th percentile of all time performance at that age. At 24 and 25 in like the ... 40th percentile or something?

FWIW 7 months of development time at that age can make a huge difference.

 

From what I've read on him before he was drafted is that he has bust potential because he has trouble hitting breaking balls. However his swing has crazy power so if he figures that out he could be the real deal. He seems like a true boom or bust prospect.

 

The good thing is, he is young so there's plenty of time to get in more at bats and one month of playing tells us next to nothing.

When Don Mattingly was 18 he struck out 6 times in 50 games. Nimmala strikes out 12 times as much. This tells us something already.

I totally concede that he can turn it around, but I've yet to see a list of 18 year olds who hit .200 and struck out 40% in low A as a teenager but became good big leaguers anyway.

SO far the list is no one has succeeded after such a start, so Nimmala will be the first after the other 1000 failed.

Fangraphs gives him 70 Raw Power and 65 Game Power potential but only 40 hit tool.

 

He's also something like 3 years younger than the average age of players in the league and has a .233 BABIP. He's someone I'm not concerned about for a few years.

How many of the raw athletic guys that struggled like this made it eventually? Who?

I'm probably biased to the Jays system, but just thinking of guys like D.J. Davis and Kevin Ahrens, never turned it around or came close the majors.

On the other hand the high draft pick teenage guys that did make it to the majors, Snider, Guerrero, Bichette, Lawrie, Vernon Wells, they all creamed low A even when they were 18 or 19.

Keen in mind while "young" Nimalla is at the same stage career wise as Bo Bichette was when he hit .384 in low A at 19. Nimalla is "18" but really just 7 months younger than Bichette, and same stage of "development" (year 2)

Beltre is going to be 20 in a month and is repeating low A. Nice to see the exit-V but Nimmala is hitting .167 with a terrible k rate.

 

This is just not what real prospects do as teenagers in low A.

 

Nimmala could turn it around but needs to do it soon, as it just seems like a first round pick shouldn't be having these kind of problems at low a.

 

Even guys that struggled a bit as teenagers but made it (Shawn Green, Alex Rios come to mind) were the .250 with no power but low k rate type. These guys that hit .200 and k 40% of the the time go no where.

Take a look at Vlad/Bo/Travis Snider as teenagers... and none of them even were able to hit mlb pitching at age 25 (half kidding).

D.J. Davis, Toman, those types go no where. Hope to see Nimmalla turn it around, but no way to suger coat it right now.

Nimmala and Beltre both homered today for Dunedin. Back to back actually.

 

Nimmala

 

Exit Velocity

107mph

Distance

415ft

Launch Angle

26deg

 

Beltre

 

Exit Velocity

99.2mph

Launch Angle

38deg

 

No distance for some reason

Beltre is going to be 20 in a month and is repeating low A. Nice to see the exit-V but Nimmala is hitting .167 with a terrible k rate.

This is just not what real prospects do as teenagers in low A.

Nimmala could turn it around but needs to do it soon, as it just seems like a first round pick shouldn't be having these kind of problems at low a.

Even guys that struggled a bit as teenagers but made it (Shawn Green, Alex Rios come to mind) were the .250 with no power but low k rate type. These guys that hit .200 and k 40% of the the time go no where.

Forget arbitration, we need some trade value from this guy.

The arb system unfortunately screws his trade value. Even the OK version of Vlad where ends up 2-3 WAR doesn't have trade value because he'll get paid 25 million next year.

bat him lead-off

This will also save some money. He earns what? 21 million. If he gets 75 rbis instead of 90 maybe it save 1 million or arb.

Arb salary formula based on

a*(Performance in year 3 of career) + b*(number rbizzzzzzzzzzzz last year)

nothing can be done about the first factor, but can lower second.

Yep, Vladdy was gripping and ripping it tonight.

 

The month of May might just turn into a month where HR Derby Vladdy shows up!

Just bumping this thread because of the irony of Vlad now being a kind of acceptable player because he is hitting Spencer Horwitz's projections basically.

Blue Jays Message Board Geniuses - 'no power bro'.

Reality based math - A 'no power bro' 1b men hitting .270 .360 .390 with OK 1b defense is 2-3 WAR

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - Hitting .270 .360 .390 on track for 15 homers. On track for 2.5 WAR because walk rate and defense are better then other years.

Can you just like, stop being you for a week or so?

I also made some interesting points in that post. Some of the performance differences that were attributed to minor league parks, could be attributed to playing in the U.S. continuously.... without 2 weeks at a time in Canada....