Olerud363

this organization...

Top 10 according to MLB

Tiedemann - 12 innings 5.68 ERA

Orelvis - Suspended 80 games for Steroid use

Nimmala - Can't stick in Dunnedin, hitting .180. sort of back in Dunnedin but sitting most of the time trying to fix his swing.

Barriera - Fat and out for 2 years or something. No idea don't even bother to check.

Leo Jiminez - Having a nice season and could be 4 years of good Santiago Espinal at some point

Barger - Some nice physical skills and trying to make them work in the MLB.

Roden - Kind of hitting .255 now instead of .320 but working on the power

Emanuel Bonilla - LOL .230 massive k-rate, in junior Varsity morning league.. don't care if he is 18.

Macko - decent I hear

Rojas - Know nothing about him and can't be bothered to check. Maybe he is good? Let me know.

Bonus - Jace Bohrofen, who we had some hopes for is hitting .218 in a league he is suppose to mash in... lol. I mean Ryan Nodo made it, but Ryan Nodo hit like Barry Bonds in A+.

still the same issue for Vlad, just needs more flyballs less groundballs

 

he has been excellent in May+June (167 and 150 wRC+) but not because he is hitting more flyballs. looks like just better swing decisions - K rate is much lower.

 

his wOBA this year is .237 on groundballs and .494 on flyballs. career split is similar.

 

 

the current version of Vlad is .280/.360/.450 or something like that

 

if he traded some groundballs for flyballs he could very realistically be .260/.340/.540 in my opinion. that is WAY more production and probably 15% better or so by wRC+

 

that seems like too big of a bump in SLG but I think it's realistic. lots of those flyballs are going to go over the wall! There is no reason he can't sustain a massive ISO

 

it's just absurd that he doesn't have a .200+ ISO all the f***ing time, it makes me want to cry

Way too low if he is striking out only 100 times a year. I guess if he becomes Mr. Popup or something maybe.

If he could optimize his launch angle he's a .320 .400 .600 guy... the guy he was at 18, 19 and 22. He's had a 99.9th percentile season for his age 3 times, so that's his ceiling if he fixes his issue.

And he will... with the Red Sox. That fat Bastard will probably last until he is 42 with them and in 2041 the city of Boston will have the 'goodbye Vlad' party... their second Ortiz.

Compare him to Shohei.... realistically the only meaningful difference in Shohei vs Vlad is the LA Sweet Spot.... shohei 84th percentile, Vlad ... 23rd percentile.

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/shohei-ohtani-660271?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

It's impossible to teach someone to hit the ball with top 3 MLB exit Vs.

Vlad put's like 70 or 80 more balls in play per 160 games than Judge or Shohei. If you fixed his launch angle it would be Pujols-prime.

So you may have some team sign him to a 350 million 9 year deal based on their biomechanics guy saying he can help increase the launch angle.

For years I've been saying exactly where this is going... Vlad hitting .361 .470 .710 for another team and bringing 10 years of pure joy to another fan base.

Put them all in a room, roll an grenade in and see who's left.

lol. Sort of demonstrates my point about how you have to act a little different if you've actually met these guys and might meet them again...

If Brownie might someday get to go to the Tinnish Christmas party again he can't threaten to kill them all.

Tinnish is the VP of International Scouting & Baseball Operations. I used to know him fairly well, but we don't cross paths anymore. I'd be curious to know what he's responsible for now. Again, the new guys will come in and decide who they want to keep and who gets shown the door.

How did you know him? That might explain why you are a "homer", or at least accused of that. If you actually have real contact with some of these people it is harder to be an unhinged online maniac and demand vigilante justice. Imagine a poster that actually knows one of these guys running into him...

Tinnish - "Good to see you again. Weird thing though, some of the interns were looking at Blue Jays message board, and you seem to want us all fired including Shapiro, accuse us of being incompetent phonies, and for some reason want Justin Trudeau fired too... not a fan of him exactly but what does Trudeau have to do with the baseball ops?

BJMB Poster- "It's the system Andrew. Nothing personal. You are all phonies with a salary, a lifestyle and a career you don't deserve. We need to bring power back to the people and it's starts by getting rid of the criminals at the top including Trudeau, Shapiro, and yes, you too Andrew. Nothing personal, but you have ruined the Blue Jays and thus ruined my life, as Blue Jays baseball is all I have."

Tinnish- "I see. Well. Do you want to grab a beer and catch up?"

Curious what people think of Boston as an organization now? Is their turn around this year real? Are they set up for some wild cards the next few years?

 

If they win some playoff games this year the Red Sox will have beat the Bo/Vlad Jays in playoff wins like 10-0 (currently ahead 6-0 I believe).

 

I've always said Red Sox are a great-great organization. Maybe 3rd after LA Dodgers and NY Yankees. Gets into a bit of philosophy about exactly what an 'organization' is. An organization is not the current baseball ops people, but really the ownership, the culture, the accountability, the love they have for the common man. John Henry is an elite but he uses his power to try and bring happiness to the ordinary person's life.

 

People will think I am being a bit inconstent here, as I have said previously Baltimore is the best run team of all time. A little nuance though.

The Boston Red Sox are a top 3 baseball organization with one of the best leaders (John Henry) in the history of the game. They have won more World Series than any other team this century, and they seem to always find a way to contend after a down year or two.

The current leadership of the Baltimore Orioles is a historically great baseball-ops group. This could lead to Baltimore being a top 5 MLB franchise if the current group is able to establish a long term elite culture and hand down what they know to the next Baltimore baseball ops group.

So great things happening in Baltimore and it's kind of new, great things happening in Boston and it's part of a long term cycle of success.

Curious what people think of Boston as an organization now? Is their turn around this year real? Are they set up for some wild cards the next few years?

If they win some playoff games this year the Red Sox will have beat the Bo/Vlad Jays in playoff wins like 10-0 (currently ahead 6-0 I believe).

I've always said Red Sox are a great-great organization. Maybe 3rd after LA Dodgers and NY Yankees. Gets into a bit of philosophy about exactly what an 'organization' is. An organization is not the current baseball ops people, but really the ownership, the culture, the accountability, the love they have for the common man. John Henry is an elite but he uses his power to try and bring happiness to the ordinary person's life.

I think people didn't like their last set of leadership, but since Theo the Red Sox have changed leadership... 3 times? 4?

John Henry is a great owner. Changes things up when needed. Cherrington, Dombrowski, Bloom, Breslow since Theo.

John Henry has gone through 3 leadership groups during Atkins era.

The Boston Red Sox are a great-great-great organization. Lead the league in World Series titles this century, and do everything they can do bring happiness to a fans life.

Atkins would have lasted like 2.5 years under John Henry.

Yeah he looks like a real asset

 

just wonder how good the D is?

Same could be said about Spencer Horwitz (assuming he's not the next Wade Boggs but a .280 doubles hitter)

There is probably like a 2 WAR swing in defense/baserunning outcomes for everybody from slick fielding short stops to supposedly defensively limited 1b men.

Like Spencer could be from -2 (Vlad like) to neutral for defense, and Jiminez 0 to 2 and that will be a big part of it.

And Spencer made a nice play at second, so kind of indicates even if he is a 1b men long term he is good enough to occasionally move to more difficult posiitions.

So Spencer and Jiminez could be part of this hypothetical contact hitting, patient hitting, good defense team the Jays "tried' to make.

Like if Spencer and Jiminez are good at defense and can run a .350+ on base percentage those are decent players even if they have 'no power bro'.

Problem with the Jays current 'no power bro' team is they are running a bunch of .290 on base percentages.

The one thing you never know is how much of the stat-sheet power is actual pop and how much is legs

 

Some guys can run a near .200 ISO in the minor leagues on legs alone. Just legging out doubles and triples and getting infield hits.

 

That's the main concern with Jimenez. Could just be Santiago Espinal with a bit more speed.

 

Although, he's not a speedster by SB or BABIP or scouting grades so maybe he really does just have 50 power and the scouts who put a 40 on his raw power were wrong??? Or, steroids.

He's younger for each level, walks more, and is faster than Espinal. Will be ready sooner and may have a longer peak.

What if Espinal was a bit younger when he got his first callup, a bit faster, a bit more patient at the plate and a bit better at defense? Instead of a 0 2 2 0 career maybe it's a 2 3 3 3 3 2 1 0 career?

There is a temporal aspect to all this. Espinal, Kevin Pillar, even Ryan Goins were useful pieces for a playoff team for a time period of at least 6 monthss. 2 years for Espinal and Pillar. Maybe Jiminez is a piece for a playoff team for 4 years.

The big question is why did the core kool-aid turn rotten? Was it an inevitability (IQ levels, physical conditioning, etc) or is it something the Jays did to cause it (coaching, team philosophy, etc)?

 

That question needs to be answered for sure.

Take a time machine back to late 2019. Two things would be apparent.

1. There was a cheating scandal, stealing signs was helpful

2. Guys were still (and still are) getting suspended for PEDs.

Logically it will be helpful to know what pitch is coming and be more alert and stronger. You need to find ways to achieve this without getting disciplinary suspensions

1. Do bad things but don't get caught.

2. Figure out hacks to get the same effect legally.

As fans we have no idea what is actually happening behind the scenes to enhance performance. Some teams know what is happening on these fronts, the Jays are not one of them.

His ISO isn't "that" much higher than it was in A/AA the past 2 years. In his age 23 season, there's a chance he's just developing physically and adding enough power to his game to be a ML regular. It's a nice development.

Whatever the case no reason to think anyone else will fail a test this season... Occasionally some dumb ass like Fernando Tatis, Orelvis Martinez or Ben Johnson doesn't take the enhancer pill and the test-passing-pill (often women's health drugs) in the right ratio and fails a test, but no reason to think it would happen twice in a season, most people, like Carl Lewis was, are good at following the dose-age instructions.

Though I guess if we argue Jays are behind on the advanced s***, they may be behind on the pill scheduling.

Does anyone know if he's trying to procreate?

When you factor in everything age, k-rate, walk rate, popup rate, power development and defense Jiminez is the guy who could really become a star and is flying under the radar.

Of course this year has been a surprising increase in power so we need to know if he is taking the drugs that increase his egg production... Still a little confused about that whole thing and how an egg enhancer would increase power or male fertility.

Jackson Merrill age 20 in AA

 

104 wRC+, 11.8% K rate, 8.5% walk rate

 

age 21 in MLB

 

122 wRC+, 16% K rate, 5% walk rate

 

Good example of why age vs. level and plat disc. stats are so f***ing important

 

 

It is possible to be a complete stud, borderline franchise player, and only have a 105 wRC+ or so in AA

And this is also why Bonilla, Nimilla, and Toman are in trouble. They have horrible k/bb at age appropriate leagues and players like that often never get past their age appropriate league (like Toman... 8 months in Dunnedin, probably will never leave except to go work at Costco)

Another huge piece of the puzzle is the Buffalo guys and exactly how they will translate. This is actually still a bit of an unknown given the changes to minor league baseball (automated strike zone).

Also an unknown given modern analytics. Maybe these Buffalo guys are excelling because they are the ones that can absorb and utilize the modern game prep

Historically a guy hitting like Horwitz in triple a would be good, even if a little older, but the argument could be it's just the wacko strike zone that is boosting him and others. On the other hand I think the Buffalo guys are still among league leaders, so it's not like everyone hits .330 .450 .500 in the international league. Clement and Schneider are up and down but translating OK.

So if traditional minor league translations work at all there is a lot of talent in Buffalo (Leo Jiminez could be the best if his defense is good) and that talent is going to be like 26 on average in 2025... so now is the time for the Buffalo boys.

So OK. If you believe that minor league numbers still work, retooling for next year, and including the Buffalo guys in the plans may be the way to go.

Unfortunately, I think this is the reality weÂ’re looking at. No Jerry Jones pissed heÂ’s not holding a trophy. You have corporate overlords that have invested hundreds of millions and probably donÂ’t have the stomach for what the bomb will do to the bottom line.

 

There will be some moves, but itÂ’s going to be a retool

The bottom line will tank anyway. By 2019 Blue Jays attendance had cratered despite 'not selling' in 2017 and 2018.

No one is arguing that the Jays should go from a decent 82 win team, with 2.5 million attendance to a 65 win team with 1.5 million attendance for the goal of draft picks.

The argument is:

1. This organization has collapsed and will win 75 games if they try hard

2. Might as well win 65 instead and reconfigure talent for 2027.

So option 1 is win 75. Option 2 is sell and win 65. Could they win 82 if they try really hard? Could they sneak into playoffs next year ? If you think they can, then I agree tanking is not a good option.

The player could also net Teoscar Hernandez, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encanarcian, or Stantiago Espinal, or Eric Hinske.

Yes Erik Hinske or Santiago Espinal. Both have been helpful pieces of playoff teams. So ...no... Deadline trade of Jansen probably won't get the next Mike Trout, but get some hopefully useful pieces for next run. And winning 67 instead of 73 has some advantages. Winning 67 instead of 85 is probably not good, if the 85 is an option, but probably isn't this year.

If the player in question would net you Jacob Waguespack or less in a deal, then yes, standing pat and hoping for the best is a perfectly viable choice.

The player could also net Teoscar Hernandez, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encanarcian, or Stantiago Espinal, or Eric Hinske.

This group is done. Collect a bunch of new players. Anybody from 18 year old lottery tickets to 25 year olds who need a fresh start. Core pieces of good teams are acquired with deadline deals.

Also loser mentality is winning 71 games for no reason. The loser tries hard, so hard, and loses anyway. The winner knows when to take a step back for longer term gain.

Projected numbers

 

Kirk .200 .290 .250

Vlad .289 16 77 rbis

Horwitz .289 16 77 (Horwitz and Vlad are no power bros)

Bo .399 6 29 (he will get off to a hot start then of course get season ending injury May 2nd)

Schneider - .244 .355 .450 OK not so bad

Varsh - .195 29 77 4 WAR with sub .200 average

Springer - .188 7 39 (no injury they finally have to sit him)

IKF - .245 .290 .330 (he's IKF)

Orelvis - .199 49 99 4 WAR (Varsho and Orelvis are in a very tight race for most WAR with sub .200 average)

 

This might actually lead to 733 runs which is maybe OK if offensive trends continue.

Barger enters platoon with Springer, and gets time other places and hits .280 .380 .550 with 38 homeruns 104 mph throws from right field 3b, and 80 mph or whatever bat speed. Jays win World Series. Barger hero to the people.

The go for it in 2025 roster

 

C - Kirk

1B - Vlad

3B - IKF (SS/2B)

SS - Bo

2B - Horwitz (1B)

LF - Schneider (2B)

CF - Varsho

RF - Springer (CF???)

DH - Orelvis?

Projected numbers

Kirk .200 .290 .250

Vlad .289 16 77 rbis

Horwitz .289 16 77 (Horwitz and Vlad are no power bros)

Bo .399 6 29 (he will get off to a hot start then of course get season ending injury May 2nd)

Schneider - .244 .355 .450 OK not so bad

Varsh - .195 29 77 4 WAR with sub .200 average

Springer - .188 7 39 (no injury they finally have to sit him)

IKF - .245 .290 .330 (he's IKF)

Orelvis - .199 49 99 4 WAR (Varsho and Orelvis are in a very tight race for most WAR with sub .200 average)

This might actually lead to 733 runs which is maybe OK if offensive trends continue.

The new playoff format is so expansive that with our payroll we should never fully rebuild.

 

Rebuilding is for poor teams who have to do it and it's not guaranteed to work anyway. Everyone calling for a rebuild just witnessed a team that had a generational prospect and several other young stars go through a full rebuild after the 2016 team and they now HATE the current product on the field. Another rebuild isn't guaranteed to go any better.

 

I guarantee you that if we make the playoffs 5-8 times each decade we will have some memorable playoff runs. Perhaps even a WS win.

But this rebuild would be exactly the model the 2017 rebuild was done by. It's kind of the model the Red Sox use. 2-3 down years and back really quick after that.

Re-align the timeline so the stars align in 2027 and use to payroll to supplement with new free agents starting in 2026. Get 3-5 years out of it.

This is the way to go if you really believe it is a 75 win team in 2025 no matter what. Maybe fool the Casuals. Sign Vlad to please them.

I think they need to bank on something else like help from outside the organization if they want to make WC3.

 

Banking on Springer, KK and Turner still is ridiculous and it was ridiculous even before the season started.

It's time to make a bold decision. Consider trading everyone over 24. Not just Bassitt, Gausman, Kikuchi, Jansen. Everyone. Varsh, Jansen, Kirk, Guerrero, Bo, Spencer Horwitz, Barger.

You want an advanced performance analytics genius department? Let's do some simple math.

Players peak at 27. The year is 2024. Lets aim for a new fun happy joyful team in 2027. So only 2 sad years to go. And those years can be spent watching the 2027 crew.

In 2027 the key players should be 24 or younger. Meaning they are 21 now.

Players who are 24 now are too old.

They could be the Orioles in 2027, without 5 last place seasons. They could do it in 3. Need to trade everyone in the next month though. Complete dramatic rebuild of the organization. Coillect a wild number of young players, currently 21 or younger, through trades, draft, international.

The greatest quickest rebuild ever. Make it happen. Fire Shapiro. Fire Atkins. Hire a 33 year old maniac who loves the Jays more than his family, more than money, more than cocaine and hookers, and make sure his IQ is above 140 and he has street sense, then leterRIP!!!!!!!!!

Man, Vladdy crushed that thing. 110.1 mph at 14 degrees. That would have gone a LONG ways with a little more air.

The issue with Vlad's 5 degree average launch angle is that he is hitting balls from -5 to 15 degrees for the most part so the best you can hope for is a single off the wall.

10 degrees away from being Pujols. 10 degrees is forever.

I don’t believe these duds even know what they’re looking at at this point

 

How did teams survive when they didn’t have swing plane vs VAA analysis

JS - How's Vlad's swing plane looking against this guy? Not that we would ever sit him, just wondering what to expect.

RA- Let me call the data guys... just a second.

Data guy - Vlad will hit this guy good. We expect a couple of hard 110 mph liners for outs, a deep fly for an out, and maybe a single off the wall. 1/4.

JS- What about tomorrow?

Data guy - Vlad's swing plane doesn't match as good. We expect a few 110 mph ground balls, likely for double plays. 0/4 with 5 or 6 outs produced.

JS - Nice. So Vlad will hit 6 balls at 110 mph and produce 10 outs this weekend. Great stuff. Will be thrilling for fans to see all those missiles. Got to have something to cheer about with Springer and KK washed up.

I didn’t realize Norby was up. Don’t have him in my league obviously. He’s an interesting prospect.

 

I wonder if good prospects are at a disadvantage in their initial run, over say Spencer Hogwarts. Like nobody gives a s*** about this Hogwarts guy other than his name sounds like Harry Potter. Throw him some fastballs, move through the order.

 

Vs teams planning on the more elite Top 25-50 guys right away.

I doubt they are game planning more for Norby then Horwitz. They aren't making these decisions based on the baseball America top 100. Horwitz hit .330 .450 .500 in the International league for 8 months, and is hitting leadoff for the Jays and was up for a month last year. They know who he is just as much as they know Norby.

And even if they didn't care who Horwitz is they aren't just going to use the 'fastballs down the middle' pitching plan for anyone. They'd use some generic pitching plan that was still tough.

That being said I do think there is some merit in the idea that some guys get game planned more than others. I am sure that is part of the explanation for Vlad 2021 (because of Covid game planning and advanced scouting wasn't as thorough, they planned like hell for him in 2022 forward).

Don't know if you saw but Judge hit a 45 degree launch angle home run a few games ago. Absolutely majestic. Horwitz bat isn't going to play at 25 degree+ launch angle. Just turn into loud outs.

Marcus Semien's bat plays fine at 25 degrees and 20th percentile exit velocities.

It's complicated Steven Kwan has terrible bat speed and exit velocities but a great contact rate and a higher launch angle than Vlad.

Marcus Semien has terrible average exit velocity, decent max exit velocity, and a high launch angle.

I think Horwitz max minor league exit velocities were decent.

If Horwitz has average launch angle of 12-15 he'll probably do great.

Steven Kwan has a higher launch angle than Vlad... lol.

Seriously. Vlad. a) popup take called strike 3. Just try for those 2 outcomes and he will accidentlly hit 50 homeruns because when he tries to hit a popup with his screwed up swing he'll actually get the 25 degree launch angle.