Dick_Pole

Ok guys, I'm no fan of Santana but when these stats predict Capuano is going to be the FAR superior option it's time to get your head out of the numbers and use common sense. I predict all of these "predictive" stats are going to go into the trash bin in a few years time. They were all backtested for predictive accuracy in a time when no one knew or cared about them. Now every pitcher knows about it and is going for the strikeout. I grew up in a time when a strikeout an inning was an accomplishment reserved for the guys with truly electric stuff...Ryan, Clemens, R. Johnson. When you're in a time when jobbers like JA Happ are striking out a guy an inning you know there's something f***ed up and unsustainable. Basically advanced stats are a tool agents can use to explain why their client isn't a piece of s***: "My client was 8-12 with a 4.50 ERA last year and he pitched on average 5 innings a game because he used his pitches inefficiently trying to K everyone with his mediocre stuff instead of using the top-notch defense behind him to get outs. But because he struck out a lot of guys his xFIP is actually 3.80 which means in reality he's good...give him 5/60!!!!!"

I think I just became illiterate after reading this. I have Topps baseball cards from the 1970's with blurbs on the back that go into more analysis than this.

lol if you post this on Twitter it WILL go viral!

I'm very sad about this, only because the Yankees will immediately get cheaper and better at SS starting in 2015. Even if the replacement ends up being a blind monkey with AIDS. I was hoping Jeter would be around another several miserable years to chase Pete Rose's hit record and the Yankees would be crucified if they ever tried to "Posada-ize him". MLB would have loved it if he wiped Rose off the record books. Selig would be on the first train to fellatio there.

Dave Stieb was essentially useless at age 33...Halladay's expiry date came way sooner than I expected...so I wouldn't consider retirement at age 33 with a career that started at 19 such a huge loss thanks to diabetes. Even without it he had maybe a couple of so-so years left unless he was built extra robust like Randy Johnson or Nolan Ryan.

I agree with you 100%. And so did Ted Williams

Teehee Richard Griffin and Paul Beeston. I have not read one post in this thread but I just had to chime in...I can only imagine what baseball genius that dynamic duo came up with. When they eventually hired Gibbons I remember that this man put together some random list of dozens of guys who could possibly manage the Jays. Gibbons wasn't even on the list. It was the last thing I ever read from him.

That argument is f***ing ridiculous. Because they made some spectacular plays occasionally that means they played out of position? Ok I guess now in the advanced age of scouting reports teams should put out foosball figurines in the field positioned just right because every hitter is going to hit it to that exact spot EVERY time. I mean, Alomar dives and gets to a ball 30 feet from the plane of the 1B bag so I guess next time he should have had played that hitter with a David Ortiz shift to eliminate the need to make that spectacular play... I swear just because someone can look at some numbers on a screen about defensive metrics doesn't mean they are immune from facetious reasoning. Having good range does not imply you play out of position. This Ripken vs Alomar argument implies such.

CC Sabathia will be very happy about this. (For those who are unaware, CC made a big stink about there not being many black baseball pitchers a few years ago, citing that inner city kids are dropping it in favour of basketball and how baseball needs to promote itself better to that particular demographic)

So Goins > Bonafacio on defense...and on offense who knows, its probably a wash but at least Goins has a chance at proving himself. And Drew > better than all of them so perhaps he needs to be the first target over everyone. I'm just not sure why you're dead set on bringing back a mediocre player whose time was poisoned here. Unless that's not what you're saying and you're just trying to prove he wasn't as bad as people think and nothing more.

But if he hits like s*** and the team is more concerned with BP specialization than having a deep bench, there's really not much use for him. I'm sure Gose can develop into that level of player on the basepaths with superior defensive skill so he's redundant.

I used the "40+ SB threat last year" as a proxy to mean the team had a lot of speed.

The Jays have Gose and Reyes. Bonafacio is redundant and his skill set of speed and nothing else is not hard to acquire from other players. Despite having FOUR guys with 40+ SB threat last year, they didn't use speed properly. That's a function of having a poor OBP so not enough guys on in the first place, and poor use of the speed asset when you did have an opportunity (ie Lind gets on in the 6th, you have Rajai pinch run for him and hit going forward because that's when the lefty relievers start to come). So adding more speed to this team is a complete waste.

Well....100 games of Drew and 62 games of Goins is better than 162 games of Goins. It could be the difference between 91-71 and 89-73...it could be the difference between making the 5th seed and being also-rans for yet another year. So yeah Drew is a good idea given the current state of the team and what's available on the FA market. I didn't say I hate injured players. I said if you want to build your team around injured players you have to build for depth and contingencies. AA has to build this team around the assumption that Lawrie and Reyes will miss 60 games this year. Teams that are projected to start Goins/Kawasaki/Izturis quality of players on the middle infield 220+ games in a year generally aren't playoff-caliber teams. It's not impossible (80's/90's Jays teams put out the duo of Liriano/Manny Lee and still won) but it's an uphill battle and you'd have to expect monster seasons from your other guys to carry them. So yes, I definitely argue the Jays should get Drew, and they should build for solid depth behind him and Reyes.

It's funny because even in this scenario Lawrie and Bautista have to average 144 games for the 5 of those guys to average 150. Mission Impossible! I would love it if Reyes put up 160 again...but let's face it...he's done that once in the last 5 years. Him playing 100-130 games next year can't be classified as bad luck.

saskjayfan you're being baited again....ignore him...let's not have another thread ruined by nonsense.

In what universe can we expect the core 5 guys on offense on this team (Reyes, Lawrie, Bautista, Encarnacion and Rasmus) to average 150 games this year or any year? It hasn't happened yet. Encarnacion's the only one I'd put money on getting to 150 games. Maybe Rasmus too if he doesn't faceplant himself into a concrete wall or something stupid. But the other three we'll be lucky to see average 130 games, and that means 64 games or more with TWO of Goins/Kawasaki/Izturis in the lineup instead of just one. When you have consistent injury prone players, you HAVE to build your team for positional depth. Not like 15 BP arms on a 40-man roster. You can't just pray for a Paul Molitor-like turnaround who miraculously turned into Cal Ripken at age 34. Those "special little pills" or injections that allows for those types of miracles aren't allowed anymore. And yes that's some added colour commentary on what I think current HOF members have done while BBWAA is on their moral high horse with Bonds and Clemens.

I agree. What gave it away for me was this: "Anderson, dealt in December by the Oakland Athletics to Colorado Rockies for pitcher Drew Pomeranz and prospect Chris Jensen, nearly ended up with the Blue Jays in exchange for Sergio Santos. But those talks fell apart due to concern over Anderson’s injury risk." So wait a minute...you're scared to give up the guy who has had 30 IP over the past two years for the guy who had 80 IP over the past two years because of the OTHER guy's injury risk? Whatever. $4M salary difference then either one could be bought out following the 2014 season so it's not like there were huge salary considerations. If you're that scared about Anderson why pursue him in the first place or even mention this at all? Oh yeah to try to save face.

Technically it's the price of oil that they care most about. Though I know what you mean. But supposedly the price of oil and CDN$ is positively correlated because resource demand = demand for CDN$ to get our resources. I'm sure the oil companies would love a $1.10 CDN if that meant oil prices were $150 USD a barrel.

Take it from a guy who works finance for a competitor of Rogers. If they were stupid enough not to hedge, they have MUCH bigger problems than paying baseball players. Most handset manufacturers have agreements with the Canadian telecom industry in USD except Apple. Even Blackberry prices in USD not that they matter anymore. My company hedges all of our Q1 2014 USD needs and half of it for the remainder of the year and I just calculated an additional $30-$75M of costs we have to absorb for 2014 because of the CAD tanking from 96 to 90 cents lately a couple of days ago. Rogers moves more phones than us, so their risk is much bigger. Now none of these telecom companies can afford to report a miss on their earnings forecast for 2014, so guess who's gonna absorb the cost increase of these devices for 2014! Hope none of you have a contract expiring this year lol

Holy s*** @ all the whining about cheaters Gaylord Perry is in the HOF and not only was he well known as a cheater, he is CELEBRATED for it. He wrote a book during the middle of his career called "Me and the Spitter". That would be the equivalent of Bonds writing a book during the early 2000's called "Me and PED Use".

All he needed was "Tu Eres Maricon" written in his eyeblack... Got Denver +2 for the Super Bowl. I'll take that line all day. Only $800 since that's all I could muster up before the lines swung back to Denver as the fav.

I don't know if people are misreading this or what, but Seattle has a 26 to 1 odds to win the World Series, the same with Cleveland and just barely above average. People aren't betting on them that much and I think where they are (middle of the pack) is about right.

Rajai was a very useful talent when used correctly. And he was the better alternative to Sierra or Pillar (and probably Gose) if only he came at the right price. No need to lump him in with Arencibia who was a definite negative asset.

Not sure how anyone can rank Moseby above White other than tenure. They were basically equivalent offensive talents with White the far better defender.