Dick_Pole

Which opening day roster? The Yankees? Sure.

I saw this thread yesterday but I didn't bother posting for similar reasons. I don't know ace3113, but I recall that he has the picture of Rob Ford crack smoker as his avatar. Somehow I don't think a man from the Philippines and/or the US is gonna care about Rob Ford enough to make him his display pic. The person in question is probably rooted in Toronto.

I hate doing long shot bets...but like I said the win total is probably going to be 75-77 wins. If it's less than 77 I'm going to bet about $5K on the over. The thought process for the casual fan who doesn't know the team well is that the team won 74 last year and they lost their starting catcher and a top pitcher.

13-1 to win the pennant. 26-1 to win the World Series. Barely above average...at least Alex successfully created the illusion of a top contender last year.

As far as the other teams are concerned - if you consider that the average odds would be 30-1, I think Washington, the Yankees, Angels and D'backs are overvalued but Tanaka signing would change my mind on the Yankees. The Braves, Royals, Rays and Pirates have pretty good value imo. Seattle is hilarious, with all their spending Vegas gives them a slightly above average chance of 26-1 lol. The same as the Indians and I think that's about right.

Remember the good old days of this time last year where the Jays were consistently top 3 favs to win everything according to Vegas? Well not this year! With essentially the same team, only the White Sox, Astros and Twins have worse odds to win the AL Pennant this year. Jays are on the same level as the Phillies for the World Series. I'd put some money on them as a value pick if I actually thought they had a shot in hell of winning. This should be a pretty grim reality check for anyone convinced that this team is an 85+ win team. With the Jays predicted to be the least likely in the division and 4th least likely in the league to win, unless the American League dominates interleague play or those bottom three teams lose well over 100+ games, no way are the Jays expected to come close to 85 wins. Once season win totals come up I might bet on the over if it comes in the 75-77 win range as these odds would imply. I think they can beat that, but not much higher. Here are the odds for each: AL Pennant: Baltimore Orioles 11 Boston Red Sox 6 Chicago White Sox 31 Cleveland Indians 13 Detroit Tigers 4.85 Houston Astros 126 Kansas City Royals 16 Los Angeles Angels 7 Minnesota Twins 51 New York Yankees 11 Oakland Athletics 9 Seattle Mariners 13 Tampa Bay Rays 9 Texas Rangers 9 Toronto Blue Jays 21 World Series: Arizona Diamondbacks 21 Atlanta Braves 19 Baltimore Orioles 26 Boston Red Sox 9 Chicago Cubs 81 Chicago White Sox 66 Cincinnati Reds 16 Cleveland Indians 26 Colorado Rockies 66 Detroit Tigers 6 Houston Astros 301 Kansas City Royals 31 Los Angeles Angels 16 Los Angeles Dodgers 6 Miami Marlins 201 Milwaukee Brewers 66 Minnesota Twins 126 New York Mets 101 New York Yankees 16 Oakland Athletics 16 Philadelphia Phillies 41 Pittsburgh Pirates 26 San Diego Padres 66 San Francisco Giants 21 Seattle Mariners 26 St Louis Cardinals 9 Tampa Bay Rays 21 Texas Rangers 16 Toronto Blue Jays 41 Washington Nationals 9

Sign him to a one day contract and he retires.

That would be much more badass if it was alive.

Hmmm...I'd say just to take the top 15 and hope that no one would have voted for Hideo Nomo and friends, but there are 22 defensible candidates to vote for on the ballot (basically everyone Palmeiro and higher)

It'd still be interesting to see if this board can come up with better results than the writers given the same restrictions, since there is a lot of chest thumping over how moronic the BBWAA is. Of course as I write this I realize the whole premise of being "better" is flawed. Of course we're going to judge it better because we would vote on it. It'd be like me being in a room with 10 other guys and unilaterally deciding I'm the most awesome one there.

Delgado is in the same category as McGriff, maybe a little lower, and the latter doesn't look very likely to be getting in.

Someone should make a poll with the parameters of the HOF ballot (same eligible players, you can choose up to 10) and see who would get the 75% required based on the opinion of this site. There seems to be enough armchair quarterbacks here so it would probably get 40+ voters, enough of a sample size. Thing is, I don't care quite enough to learn how to make such a poll, but I would participate if something like that existed. Where the hell is that guy who would make a poll for everything a few months ago? We sure could use him now.

Nonsense like that wouldn't bug me so much if there weren't already a plethora of decent candidates who are getting overlooked. I wonder if the writers who voted them passed over Bonds and Clemens? Pump Jacque Jones full of steroids and he still wouldn't be as good as Bonds clean.

So several people felt compelled to vote in Hideo Nomo in lieu of any number of those names listed in the top 20 of the ballot. Nice.

Actually I hope he comes out today and says he ate a tub of steroids a day...literally...ate it. That'll put some nice egg on the face of these voters.

Yup. Let's see the voting percentages once they are out. Apparently Biggio missed by one vote.

If people are talking about Kevin Brown dropping off the ballot compared to Morris, then David Wells should be thrown into the conversation as well. Wells has comparable/superior stats to Morris and was a better "big game" playoff pitcher too.

Sign Sizemore as a depth move, sure. Sign Sizemore and gift wrap him the starting CF job, no. I hope most people see it that way. The last thing we need is another walking injury penciled into the lineup with no contingency plan.

$15M on average for that rotation and they gave up two good prospects to try to get Dickey on a good deal...disgraceful. Add in guys like Romero and Happ who are paid to be SP but would be AAA depth/failed pitchers and it's even worse. Dickey and Morrow would have to return to their career best seasons with the other 3 being consistent compared to recent performance (no Rogers Centre bandbox/AL East adjustments allowed) to make that rotation worth its cost. Of course if that does happen, this would be a 90+ win team rather easily I would say.

Sure sign both of them...the Jays will lead the league in mediocre pitching depth and have about $20M tied up in guys pitching in Buffalo. I'm all for it if Rogers has no qualms with a $200M payroll now and into the future.

But with extreme predictions like that, bad is much more likely than good. He can play to projection then pull a hamstring early one year and his $250M+ turns to $200M or less.

I'd rather just pray that Morrow does well and the Jays don't get either. When has paying through the nose in a pitching weak market EVER worked out well for a team? Barry Zito anyone? I would take either on a 1-2 year contract...maybe 3...certainly not 4+

That's a little like saying Google's stock could hit $5000 in the next four years...sure it could happen, but anyone trading for one player based on a projection like that is nuts...a lot of bad things can happen between now and 2018 that'll prevent him from coming anywhere close to those numbers.

He's a guy who I have a few 5-cent baseball cards from the 80's lying around somewhere. And 5 cents is being generous.

I'm willing to give voters a break this time around because the field of legitimate candidates is very large and you're only allowed to vote for 10. For instance, if you think Morris and Mussina are legit HOF candidates but you already have 9 other players you are voting for then I can see you voting for Morris because his chance is almost up and Mussina's got a long way to go so you can always vote for him another year when the field is weaker. Of course this argument doesn't hold ground for this jackass that picks five guys for his own random reasons.