Dick_Pole

I know the title of this thread is called "Hutch and FIP" so people are arguing his "unluckiness" in the context of ERA vs FIP, but the man is 10-2. I know that might not mean much around these parts but it does mean a lot to many people who watch and commentate on baseball. Whatever lack of luck Hutchison has had on the defensive end in terms of batted balls in play, he's gotten twice that luck back on the offensive side of things. I know why this argument has merit, because we are trying to debate who stays in the rotation if Stroman comes back - Estrada or Hutchison - since Dickey looks like he's learned how to pitch again. Let's just be happy that we can debate who stays on as #5 - the guy who's been pitching over his head or the guy who has been underperforming and is slightly unlucky. Because three months ago there would have been a debate between those two being the BEST pitcher in the rotation, not the worst.

That's what swinging strike rates are for.

Assuming he lasts the year in the starting rotation, Hutchison is going to exceed 350 IP in the last two years - hardly Morrow-like lack of durability.

He's not the Jays' GM now...

Ah well, the best case scenario then would be the Jays locking up a playoff spot before the last week of the season, then TheHurl can go suck a lemon.

I see it in three hierarchies: The teams to cheer for/minimal threat: Any NL Team facing the AL Oakland Boston Seattle Cleveland The mid-tier threats: Chicago Detroit Texas Minnesota TB The biggest threats: KC Houston LA Baltimore NY My bias is looking upwards. I'd like to see the Jays take #1 spot in the AL so they have home field throughout the playoffs. But I can see how someone would consider KC a low threat team if you just concede the #1 seed to them and worry more about the Twins. LA and Houston are interchangeable between WC and their division so I consider them both top teams of threat.

The tank thing is nothing more than a convenient excuse. So the Tigers busted their asses to get into the playoffs then blew it. They were tired. Guess what, the Twins also played 162 games over the previous 6 months.

Everyone I know who is older than me still has nightmares over the 1987 season. It must have been really painful. Funny because I thought 1985 would have stung worse. The Jays evened things out though in 1989.

Nice job. Also there's this: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/ewingsa01.shtml

I like how the percentage goes from 60% to 66% today. I also like how it increases 2% just because the Angels lost. I think the Fangraphs formula is flawed. No way should one game move the needle this much with 50+ games left.

It's true that the Jays have been trash on the road this year, but they have a winning record on the road against AL East opponents and are 2-1 at Yankee stadium.

Rays 1998-today: 1325-1534 .463 Runs for: 12603 Runs Against: 13682 Differential: -1079 Jays 1998-today: 1428-1432 .499 Runs for: 13817 Runs against: 13478 Differential: +339 The Jays have clearly been the better team since the Rays came into existence. Can't help the fact that the team has just been lucky to not quite suck enough to sneak into the playoffs a couple of times. Let's be fair for a second and consider that Tampa had some expansion years to go through....so let's compare their meager existence to the Jays' first 18 seasons: 1462-1492 .495 Runs for: 13150 Runs against: 13180 Differential: -30 World Series: 2 vs. 0 Again, there's no comparison. Blue Jays are clearly the better team no matter what kind of historical comparison you want to make. Saying a team has "the longest drought in all of pro sports" is very misleading. Unless you have scoured every European soccer league to ensure that claim is true, then I assume you mean out of the 4 major North American ones. Now of course in the NBA and NHL half (or more) of the teams make it to the playoffs since 1993 so those comparisons aren't even appropriate. Up until recently the Royals and Pirates had longer droughts and had winning percentages reflective of their futility over those years. Just because on August 4, 2015 your statement may be true doesn't make the Blue Jays a bad franchise. If in two months from now if the Jays are still playing does that automatically take them from 30th rank in MLB to a 10-way tie for first with the other teams that made the playoffs?

As a Jays fan, aiming for anything less than a division win and home field advantage through the playoffs is unacceptable. f*** the Yankees, the Jays are only 8.5 behind those weak-ass Royals.

The Tampa Bay Rays are the worst franchise in MLB. Whether you base that off of all-time winning percentage, franchise value or home gate sales...the Rays are pretty much at the bottom for everything you would deem important for an MLB team. They were even forced to change their name because the 80 year olds in their home town that never go to games got offended by the word devil. I suppose there is a charm to cheering for the team like you would cheer for the Washington Generals or Barry Horowitz, but you know they are destined to be losers forever until they are washed out of existence or completely re-branded in another town.

Since the Jays didn't do much at the deadline and have virtually no chance to make the playoffs, I can see why someone would bump this thread to cause some more unnecessary drama. I mean, it's not like we've have much to talk about Jays-wise anyways....

Is there a realistic shot of this happening? Also, if there is, do we want him pitching in October for what is essentially his spring training? I would want him to pitch at least 3 or 4 starts before that. Not only do we need to cheer for the Jays we need to cheer for the Bisons to get in the playoffs so Stroman has some warm up games. The Jays would also need to do some roster juggling at the end of the month to ensure he's eligible to appear in the playoffs.

You should print this comment out, frame it and hang it over your desk.

That would be a real piss-off if Price decided to pull an Alexei Yashin...screw you Canadians with your summers indistinguishable from ours, free health care and lack of movie theater and church mass shootings...not gonna pitch there.

Please, please let it be: "Giancarlo Stanton is a dirty spic for f***ing my wife"

I agree. Too bad this is not how baseball works anymore so the chances of this happening is 10% at best. I wish we had this roster back in April.

No money involved? Then the trade becomes Tulo for Harvey plus whatever brings you 6/110 on the FA market. Good deal.

I think people greatly overestimate the power and use of the 10/5 clause. If the Jays want to trade Edwin and there's a team that wants him, there will be a way to work things out. Plus the Cardinals and Jays match up pretty well as potential trade partners.

Ugh. The Jays got a pitcher in the deal who would have a greater impact in 2015 on the MLB roster than the players they gave up. This stacked offense allows AA to trade off of the MLB roster for pitching without a substantial downgrade to the offense compared to how it was two days ago. Of course this assumes AA is thinking along those lines.

People harp on AA constantly bringing up the Marlins and Mets trades with Gomes occasionally thrown into the mix. As well as his complete inability to make good on promises to compete in the timelines he suggested. However, in terms of "what have you done for me lately", he's been great. If AA was fired two years ago and every move made since then was done by a new GM, people would be saying he's been awesome. His roster management and ability to build depth still sucks but otherwise I think he has learned from his mistakes.

This is a great trade. Immediate upgrade on both sides of the ball at short for decent but not great prospects and some long term salary freedom. The only thing to not like about it is his tendency to get injured and playing on the s***** Rogers Center infield at least until the Argos ship out to BMO. The next move should be trading Encarnacion for a starter. Play Smoak every day at 1B then rotate the DH position between Bautista, Tulo, Colabello and Navarro (assuming the Jays will have the latter two on the roster for the rest of the year) and call up Pompey to get Colabello off the field as much as possible. The net impact on the MLB roster would be a minimal downgrade on offense with a substantial upgrade on defense and pitching. And all it took was a couple of ok prospects.