I agree with Laika.
At the time of the trade, the thought was Moreno wasn't going to make an impact in the short term right away, therefore Kirk and Jansen, who are proven, are more valuable to the Jays over the next two seasons. There was more risk with Moreno if he didn't develop into a solid starting catcher both offensively and defensively given the Jays window to contend.
At this point, we're seeing Moreno hitting extremely well - yes most hits are singles but he's hitting .321 with a .746 OPS and that's with very little power to show so far. Alongside with his very strong defense in the early going. Imagine if he starts hitting for more power whether later this season or further down the road and continues to provide high batting averages, then he's looking like a real stud behind the plate.
Varsho (who I still believe in) and Kirk/Jansen (I believe in both as well) have been awful to start the season. I expect all three to bounce back.
Right now, the way Moreno has started his career in Arizona and if he continues on an upward trajectory, it's looking like he was the catcher to keep because of his long term potential and since he's making an impact already in the short term. So right now, his successful start + long term upside and Lourdes successful start are tilting the trade in favor of Arizona. Doesn't mean it was a bad trade or awful trade from the Blue Jays. As well, we don't know if the D'Backs preferred Moreno over Kirk or did the Blue Jays offer Moreno etc.
If the Jays get 4-5 WAR out of Varsho every season, I'll take that. If Moreno develops some power and becomes a 4-5 WAR catcher, whereas Jansen/Kirk are only 2-3 WAR guys, then yeah not a great use of resources, though again we don't have a transcript of the trade discussions and who Arizona preferred so it's a moot point.
Overall, the trade I think does need more time obviously before we declare a clear winner. Right now it's tilting towards Arizona but yes that could change if Varsho and Kirk/Jansen both get hot and Moreno/Lourdes slow down. Still a lot of baseball left and as well still a couple more seasons before making a final conclusion.