Blue Jays haven't been as good as advertised the past two seasons. The AL East as well has got tougher. It's a mix of both.
I think overall on paper the Blue Jays improved during the offseason. It's just a lot of players have been playing terrible. Springer is looking like he's older than he is, Jansen/Kirk have provided nothing offensively behind the plate, Varsho isn't hitting yet on all cylinders as a big bat, Espinal/Biggio haven't done anything, Belt got off to a really slow start, Manoah looks like Ricky Romero now, Berrios and Kikuchi have just been meh.
We're already past the mid-point of May, so if things are still like this in June, there should be some serious concern.
Overall, even with their struggles, this team likely has a chance of one of the Wild Card spots, but it won't be easy. You have the Orioles, Yankees, Red Sox in the AL East along with teams like the Astros/Rangers, Angels and Mariners in the AL West.