They were talking about this on TSN Overdrive yesterday.
Blue Jays have put together winning teams every season in their competitive window under Atkins. The Jays have been pretty much like the Leafs. They have a solid team during the regular season, but when it comes to the Postseason, they haven't been able to take that next step or win that big game with this group.
I think Shapiro is safe regardless of what happens and stays here as long as he wants to stay in Toronto. If the Jays crash and burn however, Atkins is likely gone. If the Jays have another winning season and win a Postseason series, I think Atkins is kept around.