Last year, the Jays grabbed the second wildcard, with a record of 89-73.
The closest teams to eliminating us from post-season contention were:
Detroit 86-75
Yankees 84-78
Seattle 86-76
Houston 84-78
It's also important to note that we tied with Baltimore with the same record.
So, where does that leave us for 2017?
The Yankees have probably stayed the same. They've lost their big bats (A-Rod, Tex). Their bullpen is actually worse than last year, as they've lost Miller. (They had Chapman to start the season last year too). And they're relying on three rookies (Sanchez, Bird, Judge).
The Tigers have pretty much announced a fire sale, and seem unlikely to compete for the next couple centuries, with the state of their economy.
Seattle added Segura, and didn't make any other major moves, but have some older players they rely on. (Kuma, Cruz, Cano).
The Astros are going to be absolute beasts. Bregman, Gurriel, Giles and Beltran are going to make a big difference over last year.
The Orioles haven't done anything significant and might still lose Trumbo.
So, assuming that Boston, Cleveland and Texas win their divisions, we can only let one of these teams (Houston) finish ahead of us and still make the playoffs.
So, let's compare this year to last year.
Disclaimer, I am just pulling these numbers out of my ass, so feel free to argue/disagree.
C: Martin/Thole vs Martin/Unknown = +0.2 WAR
1B: Smoak/Colabello vs Smoak/Pearce = +.5 WAR
2B: Goins/Barney vs Travis(healthy)= + 1 WAR
3B: Donadlson: same
SS: Tulowitzki: same
CF: Pillar: same
RF: Bautista vs Carrera = -2 WAR
LF: Saunders vs Upton Jr. = -0.5 WAR
DH: Encarnacion vs. Morales = -2.5 WAR
SP1: Sanchez vs Sanchez = same
SP2: Stroman = same
SP3: JA Happ = same
SP4: Marco Estrada = same
SP5: Dickey vs Liriano = + 1.5 WAR
RP 1 Osuna: same
RP 2: Biagini vs Biagini: + 0.5 WAR
RP 3: Cecil vs. Sparkman: -1 WAR
RP 4: Chavez vs. Tepera
RP 5: Grilli vs. Grilli: -0.3 WAR
RP 6: Storen vs. Loup = same
RP 7: Floyd vs. Bolsinger = + 0.3 WAR
Bench: Gourriel vs bunch of scrubs: + 0.5 WAR
Summary
Infield: + 1.7 WAR
Outfield/DH: - 5 WAR
Starters: + 1.5 WAR
Bullpen: - 0.5 WAR
Bench: + 0.5 WAR
Total -1.8 WAR
Hopefully, we add an outfielder better than Carerra to start the season.