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John_Havok

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Everything posted by John_Havok

  1. John_Havok
    hit expectancy on the ball was .060
  2. John_Havok
    Straw is the best 4th OF in baseball. The rest of the list is accurate
  3. John_Havok
    Legend
  4. John_Havok
    Its like people maybe dont have the right perspective. the difference between a 95 win team and an 82 win team is about 2 wins per month.
  5. John_Havok
    I win the pool. I predicted the injury would occur before a call-up. I was also the only member of the pool.
  6. John_Havok
    For anyone who hasn't looked up the numbers... Mantiply vs LHB this season/career by OPS against: .599/.646 Fisher vs LHB this season/career by OPS against: .750/.657 Ergo, Mantiply the better choice by season to date, basically a push career but ... Fisher's career much shorter so some likely variance there. What about lately? Who's pitched better lately? Last 14 days by OPS against: Mantiply: .583 (28 PAs against) Fisher: .728 (19 PA against) So, hard to really say it was a bad decision because "intuition" or whatever argument is being presented. Fluharty wasn't available so it was either Mantiply or Little and i can't even imagine the whining if Little had come in and gave it up. Mantiply was the best choice available unless you wanted a 2 inning push from Varland and probably sidelined him for the remainder of the series when you consider what his pitch total might have been. Seems to me there's not really a valid argument against the move. What "intuition" would be present to make him think a guy who has struggled overall lately and has struggles against LHB all season was the better choice?
  7. John_Havok
    Fair points, but I think it's completely unrealistic to have expected Cal to repeat that season when it was such an outlier to begin with. There's probably some homer-istic bias for me too given that Vlad has been essentially disapointing every year since 2021 (exception - 2024 and playoffs 2025) so this year just seems like a continuation of that trend.
  8. John_Havok
    And then Varland gave it up anyways, so... even the right decisions go sideways sometimes.
  9. John_Havok
    Good call. His season is actually a worse than Vlad's with the bat. Still great D though
  10. John_Havok
    This I agree with wholeheartedly. When a decision gets made that went wrong when there seems to be a very obvious alternative, it seems a reasonable expectation would be to have the manager explain at least the high level version of why it happened. But, even back in the day there was a whole handful of completely contrary reporters who would nitptick every tiny detail to death even after winning by 10 runs. "Why did you take out 'insert superstar player here' when you were up by 10 in the 7th?" A happy medium would be nice.
  11. John_Havok
    The "Vlad staring at the first pitch every time because reasons" thing is so weird. Granted he's only faced Jansen 3 times prior to last night's game... but defaulting to "be ready for the fastball" seems like a great idea for virtually all situations to start with.
  12. John_Havok
    When i started the article that was what I was looking for, where Bichette was going to be ranked. Like, i knew Vlad, Raleigh and Tucker would be in there near the top in some order, but I though Bichette would easily crack the top 10. I don't even know if Raleigh is the correct choice for #1, he's still popped more than 20 HRs even though his overall production is way down. Plus, he doesn't have the mega-contract against him like Vlad and Tucker do.
  13. John_Havok
    And more than once....
  14. John_Havok
    Vlad's season is easily one of the most disappointing performances for an individual player on the Jays for quite a while, especially considering his price-tag. Sports Illustrated did an article the other day ranking the top 10 most disappointing players this season. https://www.si.com/mlb/10-most-disappointing-players-2026-mlb-season 10: Skenes 9: Freddy Peralta 8. Semien 7. Adames 6. Trea Turner 5. Edwin Diaz 4. Jarren Duran 3. Kyle Tucker 2. Vlad 1. Cal Raleigh
  15. John_Havok
    Do you often see pitchers used on 1 day rest after throwing 44 pitches in a game? Let alone the situation you described in wanting him to throw 3 days out of 4 when the first day was 44 pitches?? Let alone with a guy who's pitched 15 innings total over the previous 2 seasons and is already 1 out shy of 90 IP this season? Didn't think so. And you think the Jays braintrust doesn't know baseball??? Jesus.....
  16. John_Havok
    Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, and sometimes... it rains. Think about that.
  17. John_Havok
    And for all we know, he had the green light and just didn't make the decision to go because he didn't have Jansen's timing down. No way the red light was on in that situation.
  18. John_Havok
    It is at least somewhat interesting to wonder how a guy who was high level in Cleveland, an org that had churned out solid pitching consistently for years while he was there (and still has in his absence).... hasn't been able to replicate that system in Toronto, even now with the cutting edge sports complex and lab. Possible reasons: 1. Not a primary focus since he has far more resources here to make FA signings. (this would be a silly reason, but ... it's kind of a theme in teams with large payrolls) 2. Hasn't been able to poach all the right staff from other orgs yet for the system or the lab. (more plausible) 3. Just not drafting the "right" pitchers, aka scouting not very good combined with chronically low draft position and reduced # of picks. (definitely at least part of the story) 4. Perception of success only being developing an ace every other year (exaggeration for effect - also a factor) Thoughts?
  19. John_Havok
    why would they project a bunch of .500 teams to do anything but play .500 ball ? Should get a monkey to post for you, it would be more interesting, and at least a full level of magnitude more insightful.
  20. John_Havok
    Vlad almost always takes the 1st pitch automatically from relievers he sees. It's like a programmed part of his brain or something. It's rather irritating
  21. John_Havok
    Both can be true at the same time.
  22. John_Havok
    Why is it a given the Orioles will play inspried baseball?
  23. John_Havok
    Yes, in general an improvement in LA would translate to more power in theory, but... LA is only 1 part of the barrel rate. Barrell rate also incLudes EV, and his avg EV is still 3rd percentile, which is probably strongly incluenced by his bottom 10 percentile swing speed. So, his LA is actualky pretty ok, butvhis barrel rate is garbage becasue he swings woth pool.noodle intent. He can square up and get a good laucnch angle 35% of the time all he wants (which is where he is now, and its above average) but until more of those swings are swung with more damage intent ... yeah 10 HRs over the season is probably even reaching. I don't even think his problem is getting his A swing off, the problem is his A swing is a regular players B or C swing. The question going forward is how much swing speed he can coached and/or bulked into without detrimentally impacting other underlying metrics.
  24. John_Havok
    Rudy Rudy Rudy
  25. John_Havok
    back surgery to remove some bone spurs. just came back in august
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