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John_Havok

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Everything posted by John_Havok

  1. Cain's wRC+ is 130, Smith's 122, Semien is a weird one, wrc+ of like 98.
  2. Awe... I was saving that nugget for his next reply of multiple strawman arguments that don't actually address anything....
  3. He needs to grow into a few more HR rather than doubles and trim the K rate to be projected as a starter unless his D in CF is elite to the level of Pillar in his prime. Working for him is that his walk rate nearly doubled this year while moving up a level to his first year of full season ball. The rest of his peripherals stayed pretty much the same, which is decidedly not a bad thing.
  4. It's fine if you don't understand the new metrics. But a simple way of looking at it is that you want your best hitters hitting more often than your bad hitters. Hoping your bad hitters get on base ahead of your good ones has been proven to be less effective than batting better hitters first regardless of the type of hitter they are. The whole speed+stolen bases thing is a dinosaur mentality from a different era if the game. It may have worked then, but it doesn't really hold water when you actually analyze it objectively.
  5. 106 wrc+. Not a guy that makes sense at the top of the lineup getting the most PA. But stick to those 1950s ways of evaluating players. Its easier i guess. Slap hitting with speed = true leadoff hitter
  6. Given his speed there's probably a real case for him to be bunting down third against the shift until they stop shifting him. The doubles threat is already mitigated to a degree by his speed, and the chance of a homer is low enough that if he was successful bunting even 50% of the time it would likely be a net gain. If anyone wants to do the math and provide it, that would be great
  7. The thought process is to see if these guys can be anything in the future or not. They aren't doing anyone any good being on the roster and not getting a chance to pitch especially when wins aren't gonna help the Jays anymore this year
  8. Revere was an average-ish leadoff hitter for the Jays. If that's your bar for a good leadoff hitter then you clearly don't expect much
  9. Narcissistic ******* pretty much covers it.
  10. I can't remember which episode this was in our radio scouts podcast, but I was playing devils advocate for the sake of the show. I actually think this is a good idea. Though maybe an either/or scenario would be better. When you're called up, you get FA after 6 years of service time or your age 27 season, whichever comes first. I guarantee the PA would never agree to a system that keeps an 18 or 19 year old under 1 team's control for possibly 9 seasons, a 20 year old for 8 seasons, etc before he gets to hit the open market, even if those last 2 or 3 seasons were still additional arbitration years with what should increasing salary. The key is that still only 1 team would have access to offer the deal to that player The arbitration system sucks, the players hate it, the owners don't really like it either so adding potentially 3 more seasons of 1 team's control just isn't fair to those generational type talents that would be the most affected by it. I would also get rid of super 2 completely, and lower the threshold of what counts as a year of service time to go with it, but I'm not sure how low to go. Can't really be less than 50% of the season
  11. Without knowing the methodoligy its hard to say how significant the numbers are tbh. Does he provide the methodology at all anywhere?
  12. If you haven't figured out that tercet likes to pick very obviously flawed players and project them to fail, which would be correct like 90% of the time, while at the same time inventing a narrative from everyone else that the same player is obviously an all-star so he can somehow be seen as a know-all prophet while evryone else is just a cheerleading muppet, then you haven't read enough if his posts. He also doesn't understand babip, variance, or sample size.
  13. That's pretty much bang on. He's not a great 1B defensively based on anything I've read, so a guy like that has to rake to have value. See Morales of 2017 as the prime example of what you don't want and Morales of 2015 of what level your bat needs to be to overcome the defensive value nightmare that is a DH. Basically, 130 wRC+ to be a 2 WAR DH.
  14. Are you intentionally dismissing Jose Ramirez?
  15. I'm not so sure on Travis, looking at his numbers, yes, there's a bit of a case of bad luck in his profile, but his defense has also slid down the shitter as well. The bat bounce back would probably have to be to 2015 levels for him to even be a 2 WAR player, unless his D also improves, which was not a liability before, but this season has definitely retrogressednot to mention baserunning slowing down. He might get some more rope, and theres no real risk in giving it to him but if he doesn't get it I don't think it's a travesty either.
  16. There's no crying in baseball! Rogers Hornsby was my manager, and he called me a talking pile of pig s***. And then was when my parents drove all the way from Michigan to see me play the game. And did I cry? No....No! And do you know why? Because there's no crying in baseball. There's no crying in baseball. No crying!
  17. This assumes Tulo has two functional lower limbs at the start of the season. That's no guarantee
  18. And I'm fine with that. Give Martin some much deserved days off and see if McGuire is anything other than the defensive whiz that he's reputed to be. He can still catch in Buffalo next year while Martin and Jansen handle the big squad.
  19. Not sure. I mean, it's clear he's being groomed for a future managerial job with the club at some point. Whether or not that point is now is something we really have no idea about. Minor league Managers never really get any ink and they're aren't really any scouting reports for them, so really all we have to go on is the fact that he's been in the system as a manager now for 6 seasons, has won pretty much every step of the way, has been promoted accordingly, and is clearly the kind of manager they want around their young players. If he wasn't he wouldn't still be here. Meacham is 60 years old at Buffalo so maybe they do send him out to pasture and have Schneider take over there.
  20. Stubby is gonna be that good ole Canadian name that's gets thrown around, just cuz ... Canada and stuff. John Schneider is interesting, he was a Jays draft pick and farmhand until he took one too many foul tips off his mask and had to quit due to concussions (3 in 1 year... sux). He's managed the Jays GCL team, Vancouver team, Lansing, Dunedin and New Hampshire since 2013.
  21. Marco and clippard will also be gone
  22. I hope Tellez turns into something just so Keith Law can eat a giant dick.
  23. Should be Rick Manning and Matt Underwood. They've been there a long time
  24. Shut up already. Revisionist history is easier to get mad at. -signed, casual jays fans
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