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John_Havok

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Everything posted by John_Havok

  1. John_Havok
    It really seems to me, and I honestly have no evidence to support this other than the eye test and looking at our own hitters hot and cold zones... the Rays pitch to the hitter's weaknesses very effectively and really don't deviate from that plan. If the cold zone is away, they throw everything away, away, away, and take their chances that the hitters won't suddenly get good at hitting in their weakest areas. Yeah, they'll be the odd mistake pitch and missed locations, but they don't change unless the hitter's show them they have to. If I were a betting man, I would put a decent amount of money on the Rays having a very good pitch analytics department that digs way deeper than other orgs into pitch sequencing, locations, hot/cold zones in combination with sequencing etc. It would really help explain why it seems like all the nobodies in the world can go there and pitch like they are a front of the rotation starter or top end pen arm.
  2. John_Havok
    ok will do
  3. John_Havok
    Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Flyout 99.6mph, xBA .470
  4. John_Havok
    Guys that fill the strike zone will have those days for sure. Given the batted balls tonight though, he could also just as easily given up 5 runs and be out of the game. Lots of rockets finding gloves.
  5. John_Havok
    And Teoscars was 100 mph also. Real s*** luck on those 2 balls. xBA on Vlads was .780, Teo's was only .410... so not incredibly unlucky, but to have those both happen with runners on base is a gut punch. Jays now have 3 lineouts with xBA's above .760 in with Vlad, McGuire and Springer
  6. John_Havok
    That's kinda my point. How a team scores like they do with all these limp noodle hitters is crazy. Yeah some are injured right now, so that's a thing, but they still keep winning.
  7. John_Havok
    Dunno man, he's leaving some pretty tasty meatballs up there so far that are getting hit right at the defense.
  8. John_Havok
    The Rays have exactly 1 hitter in their lineup with an OPS higher than .770 and it's Nelson Cruz. how they keep winning like they do is incredible.
  9. John_Havok
    All of his pitches this inning were sliders and cutters. And everything was away with the exception of that front door slider to Vlad for called strike 1. Not hard to see the game plan there.
  10. John_Havok
    It does when you're the Rays. Someone sold their soul down there
  11. John_Havok
    Excellent article on Fangraphs about how unlikely what we've seen is... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-blue-jays-soar-into-playoff-position/
  12. John_Havok
    Because at this point in the season, only weirdness happening really changes things.
  13. John_Havok
    Come on, Hazel has work to do during the games y'know.
  14. John_Havok
    https://technology.mlblogs.com/an-introduction-to-expected-weighted-on-base-average-xwoba-29d6070ba52b A really good read and helps explain. In short though, ground balls are much easier to predict what will happen based on exit velocity and angle because there's fewer Xfactors in play, fly balls have higher error margins, due to wind, sea level changes, long or short porches etc.
  15. John_Havok
    Did you catch Sanchez’s ultra awful tag at the plate yesterday? Runner was gunned by 20 feet, Sanchez literally stepped aside and let him slide under the tag.
  16. John_Havok
    And all 3 games played in 24 hours
  17. John_Havok
    Back to back? When did he win the first?
  18. John_Havok
    You’re not looking for debate, you’re looking at a few numbers, have a pre-formed bias, including a very healthy dose of recency bias and trying to somehow prove that Matz is a better pitcher than Ryu. It’s laughable. It’s not worthy of debate. Ryu is a better pitcher, currently getting worse results largely due to fluctuations in batted ball luck outside of his control. Matz is a worse pitcher, currently getting better results largely due to fluctuations in batter ball luck beyond his control.
  19. John_Havok
    Perfect time to get Thornton and Merryweather some low leverage innings. Get it done chuckles.
  20. John_Havok
    Well….when you understand what FIP is…naw. I won’t bother. It would be like talking to Buck Martinez about pitcher wins.
  21. John_Havok
    Heh, they got 3 straight singles in the 6th to avoid further embarrassing themselves.
  22. John_Havok
    It’s amazing how 18 runs by your offence makes the 4ER given up through 5 innings seem like he’s pitching well doesn’t it?
  23. John_Havok
    ERA man, just look at the ERA….duh
  24. John_Havok
    This just in, Cleveland being no-hit through 5 innings
  25. John_Havok
    Omg stop they’re already dead!
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