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John_Havok

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Everything posted by John_Havok

  1. John_Havok
    Yeah that's the thing, the foul line or some other reference point would be a decent starting point as long as every hitter stands in the exact same place in the batters box. I know they all tend to stand at the back of it these days, but for another batter who stands even a foot closer to the pitcher, his "half-swings" would be way out of whack by using the foul line. That's the inherent problem with this kind of call when using some sort of physical marker on the field as a guideline. I'm sure umps want to get the calls correct, but it's been demonstrated time and again that in certain situations, umps have a tendency to err on the side of wrong. The strike zone mysteriously expands in a 3-0 count for example.
  2. John_Havok
    Would it surprise you to know there is absolutely no rule that covers what a swing is in the MLB rule book? It's 100% up to the discretion of the umpires. There's no mention of breaking the wrists, no mention of how far the bat head has to travel towards the plate... nothing. Technically, the umpire could call any check swing a strike based on the fact that the hitter started a swing and stopped, even if the bat went 6 inches forward or 3 feet past the front of the plate. It's kinda ridiculous that's there's no mention of anything in the MLB rulebook that gives even the slightest bit of guidance to umps on check swings, or as they referred to in the rule book - but not really defined... half swings.
  3. John_Havok
    And holy f*** what a bad call it was. This was the 1st base equivalent of the Joe West strike zone... his wrists didn't come close to breaking and they were well back of the front of the plate, or whatever other criteria that is needed to determine a swing. Even in real time I didn't think it was a swing, then the side view replay came up... yeah, that call was brutal. This is why I'm never in favour of adding more "umpire discretion" into the rule book. Their discretion is usually pretty random, indefensible and quite often wrong.
  4. John_Havok
    Darrin Ruf disagrees.
  5. John_Havok
    They were there before he retired too.
  6. John_Havok
    Yes. They have to take the 1st 2 years into account as well as the breakout year.
  7. John_Havok
    The players big issues are service time manipulation and competitive balance. They want the talent spread out more so most pennant and playoff spots are not decided with weeks to go in the regular season.
  8. John_Havok
    Not to my knowledge.
  9. John_Havok
    Not worthless, just very very very open to bias.
  10. John_Havok
    Maybe not in some divisions... but in the AL East, you damn sure need to plan on being really good. Not just solid. The goal of every team in the regular season should be to score as many runs more than the others as possible, not just 1 more.
  11. John_Havok
    Couple of flaws in your logic here. The Jays were not projected at 100 wins, but they performed like a team that should have won 100 games. There were many players on the Jays that outperformed their projections substantially aside from Ray and Semien. In fact, looking at pre-season projections for nearly all position players, they almost all outperformed their projections or were within .5WAR down from the projections. Starting pitching almost universally outperformed projections, aside from Ryu. The pen was the pen, that's always gonna be volatile. Does that mean we should expect the exact same next season with nearly every SP and position player? No.
  12. John_Havok
    Probably, and I agree the criticism is unwarranted for the most part.
  13. John_Havok
    Just an example: "What a great story Atlanta is. Lost 3 key pieces of the team due to injury and off-field issues. Could have folded. Could have played for 2022. Went for it. And now Atlanta is in the NLCS."
  14. John_Havok
    Losing.
  15. John_Havok
    I don’t think making it a judgement call is a good idea either. With umpires the less judgement they use, the better.
  16. John_Havok
    Maybe that’s a low, but gotta remember Vlad was less than thrilling in years 1 and 2. Bellinger’s 3 seasons prior to arbitration he’d already hit 111 HR and 288 RBI, arbitration awards love counting stats and they don’t just consider the 1 year immediately prior to arbitration, but all of them. Even prorating Vlad #s in seasons 1 and 2 to full seasons his numbers are noticeably lower than Bellinger’s. Vlad was a monster his 3rd year, after being practically a nothing burger in years 1 and 2. Bellinger was a monster in year 3 after being all star level in year 1 and 2. Not to mention he was the NL MVP in year 3 and ROY in year 1.
  17. John_Havok
    IMO they should be treated differently because if a ball hits the ground in play prior to going over the wall, it shouldn’t be the same thing as a ball clearing the wall. It’s two different things. Reductionism comes into play rather than just looking at the nonspecific events as “both balls left the field of play between the foul lines after being hit by the batter”
  18. John_Havok
    The difference in the examples is that a ball off the players head is still a legally catchable ball for an out, ie a ball that is in flight. Once the ball his the wall and/or ground, it’s no longer a legally catchable ball, ie no longer in flight. A ball can’t be ruled a home run if it’s no longer a ball that is in flight.
  19. John_Havok
    Nah he and Freeman can split 1b and DH. I know it won’t happen, but it could work
  20. John_Havok
    I have several times. Every time I do the blood massively rushing into my naughty parts causes me to pass out. I actually think adding Freeman into the lineup and grabbing a cheaper defensive 3b piece is a valid option rather than trading the farm for Ramirez. Still need pitching help in either scenario though
  21. John_Havok
    A little sure. Both of those gentleman have a massive track record of extended success and will be free agents. Bo has 1000 PAs in his career and still under control for 4 more seasons. He doesn’t even hit Arb 1 until 2023. An extension for Bo still has plenty of time to percolate.
  22. John_Havok
    When he's taking walks.
  23. John_Havok
    I dont think they need to rush into a Vlad extension yet, even if we do assume a nice cordial PA/Owners negotiation that ends with rainbow parades and hand jobs all around from Taiwanese massage therapists. They'll get serious about an extension with him if he shows up to camp another 20-30 pounds lighter and continues to show he is serious about keeping himself in full season + playoff shape. Last season was a great 1st step in that journey, but he needs to take another step this off-season.
  24. John_Havok
    I like Bo. But a 300 million dollar long term extension for him would be the height of lunacy.
  25. John_Havok
    Without a contract between the players and owners, especially with the whole floor/luxury tax fight that's likely about to happen, it's probably more difficult than ever to try and predict what the Jays will ultimately have to spend
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