John_Havok

Ah there it is, found my post from earlier on in this thread: "Among all players to step on the field in 2019, 63.2% had less than three years of service time. They accounted for 53.6% of days of service time accumulated, but they combined for only 9.8% of player pay." 63.2% of players in games last season had less than 3 years of service time. less than 10% of the leagues payroll. Those are the players the PA is fighting for this time around. I totally get that it's never going to be significant, like 40% of the league payroll of course, but even moving that needle to 15% or even 20% would basically amount to the same thing as a salary floor.

True, but the average MLB career lasts 2.7 years. Getting guaranteed money in years 1, 2 and 3 would realistically have the greatest impact on players salaries. I agree that arbitration for year 3 would be a win for the players, but if that's their only win, it's not much of one. There's a ridiculous amount of PAs being taken by players in years 1, 2 and 3 of service time that accounts for nearly nothing of overall payroll. I know that they need to make less money than stars and established players, but adding 200K to the minimum salary in year 1 and more for years 2 and 3 would actually be quite significant across the entire league

Yep, forgot Rolen. 2 of the aforementioned 4 guys plus Rolen. If there's wasn't a 10 players limit I'd have all his guys picked plus Rolen, A-rod, Manny, Helton and Jones.

Yeah, I think raising the minimum and early career money is the goal for the PA this go around. If I were them, I'd be shooting for a minimum of 750K with annual escalators that increase based on the greater or some % of total revenues, or a flat # like 50,000. I would then hold as firm as possible on getting to arbitration for year 3. Anyone know where we can view what the average Super 2 salary was in the past 5 years? Just thinking that as a fallback if they can't hold out for arbitration starting in year 3, they could just use a simpler system of Year 1, 750,000, year 2 players 1,000,000 and year 3 could be something that is less, but somewhere close to the average super 2 contract over the past 5 years.

Pretty defensible ballot. I would have added 2 of Jones, Helton, Arod and Manny but the rest is solid.

From Bob Nightengale: The two sides argued Monday, and the meeting was contentious at times, but there was at least a scent of optimism Monday that the Major League Baseball season, perhaps even spring training, will start on time. The Major League Baseball Players Association and MLB officials declined public comment, but there finally was movement. In their last face-to-face negotiations on Dec. 1 in Irving, Texas, their meeting lasted seven minutes. The meeting Monday at the Major League Baseball Players Association office lasted two hours. And after only two negotiating sessions in the last 54 days, they now have another meeting scheduled Tuesday in New York with MLB making a counterproposal. The union, according to an official with direct knowledge of the negotiations, presented a broad-based proposal that included two major concessions. The union for the first time withdrew its request to reduce free agency from the current six years with an age-based free agent system. The players originally proposed a system for players to reach free agency at five years if they were at least 29 ½ years of age. The union also agreed to scale back its proposal to reduce revenue sharing among teams from $100 million to about $30 million. The official spoke to USA TODAY Sports on condition of anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the negotiations. Still, before anyone starts celebrating, or team officials can actually speak to their own players, significant obstacles remain to reach a new collective bargaining agreement in time for the start of spring training, scheduled for Feb. 16 in Arizona and Florida. The union rejected MLB’s last proposal to pay players on a formula consisting of statistical evaluations such as WAR, and eliminating the Super 2 class where there are huge salary disparities based simply on whether a player ranks among the top 22% in service time. The union still is asking arbitration rights for players to be reduced from three years to two years of major league service. The union wants to expand the pool of salary arbitration-eligible players, believing they should have the right to advocate for a higher salary through independent arbitrators. The union also rejected MLB’s proposal that teams who have a top 100 prospect will be rewarded a first-round draft pick if the prospect wins the Rookie of the Year award the first year, or a second-round pick if he finishes among the top three in voting. Teams would also receive a first-round pick if the player finishes in the top three in the MVP or Cy Young races or a second-round pick for finishing in the top five in his first three years. This, at least, theoretically, MLB said, would help stop teams from manipulating service time to keep their top prospects in the minors at the start of their rookie season to gain an extra year of control considering the tremendous value of first-round picks. There are 51 players on Baseball America’s top 100 prospect list who were first-round draft picks, and another nine drafted in the second round. The union believes that a better system would be to increase service time based on a performance and award package, which would have permitted a player such as Kris Bryant to reach free agency a year earlier if he wasn’t kept in the minors for two weeks to open the 2015 season. MLB offered an NBA-style draft lottery on Jan. 13, involving the first three picks each year to help curb the tanking issue among teams. The union wants the lottery to instead consist of the top eight picks. The NBA has a draft lottery that includes the 14 non-playoff teams, with the league’s worst team guaranteed to pick no lower than fifth. The two sides still have not budged from their last proposals involving the luxury tax and minimum salaries. Major League Baseball offered to increase the luxury tax from $210 million to $214 million, escalating to $220 million at the end of the five-year CBA with increased penalties (50% tax and surrendering a third-round pick) for crossing the threshold. The union is seeking an increase starting at $245 million with decreased penalties. The union wants the league minimum salary of $570,500 to be increased to $775,000. MLB offered to raise the minimum salary from $570,500 to $600,000, $650,000 for players with at least one year of service and $700,000 for at least two years of service. The two sides have already all but officially agreed to a universal DH with the elimination of draft pick compensation that penalizes teams for signing premier free-agent players. The union also is willing to expand the postseason from 10 teams to 12, but MLB is seeking a 14-team format. Now, it may be a matter of who blinks first. They have about two weeks to reach an agreement to avoid the delay of spring training, and a deadline of about March 1 to avoid delaying or shortening the 162-game season. The union still believes that MLB has not come close to addressing its biggest concerns of increasing the pay to younger players, teams’ willingness to compete instead of tank, and increasing spending by clubs without the luxury tax acting more like a salary cap. MLB argues that it is offering significant concessions. It’s unknown what happens next when the two sides meet for the second time in 24 hours, but finally, and mercifully, they are at the bargaining table, actually talking face to face.

That's the conjecture at this point yeah. Based on historical trends from the publicly announced ballots to the private ones... they anticipate if anyone gets in this year it will be Ortiz only. Which, of course, would be beyond stupid and make the Hall an even bigger joke than it is now, but that seems to be how the Hall likes it.

What would be an incredible move by the owners if they want to win the court of public opinion... end the lockout and then make it a players decision to either strike... or play without a CBA.

So who else is ready for further evidence that the BBWAA sucks balls?

I take it as such. It was heated, and they're talking again tomorrow. Seems like that's better than being heated and having no more talks scheduled. Baby steps I guess.

I was in a golf pool on yahoo once. Got 2nd over the season not knowing a damn thing and just looking up picks from sites the day before the event. Wasn't a cash league or anything, but was still a great way to add some excitement to watching golf.

For 13 seconds.

I guess you missed all the ludicrous ideas from the owners that were submitted first. And dropping some issues off the table IS actually concession since that topic will no longer be on the table for discussions, which is exactly what the owners want. Giving the other party something they want is the definition of a concession.

So far, the most important words i have read... "talks continue tomorrow." Nobody took their ball and went home. Progress.

Summary: Sounds like they're taking the road I thought might be the most productive, dispensing with some unattainable changes and focusing on a couple they really want.

What we know so far (via Even Drelich of The Athletic): The Major League Baseball Players Association dropped its request to introduce an age-based free agency system into the sport on Monday, withdrawing a proposal in one of the three major areas MLB had shown no interest in changing, a person with knowledge of the negotiations told The Athletic. That means the amount of service time it takes a player to reach free agency — six years — is most likely going to remain unchanged whenever the sides reach a new deal. The players had previously proposed a system to get some players to free agency after five years if they had reached a certain age: 30 1/2, and then eventually, 29 1/2. The union also revised its proposal to alter revenue sharing between the teams, another of the three areas MLB has resisted changes toward — and traditionally, a hot-button topic for the owners themselves. Between revenue sharing and free agency, the union feels it made two significant concessions. The union on Monday also rejected most if not all of what MLB had proposed in the sides’ most recent meeting. With the time-to-free-agency question gone, the two major hurdles remaining are whether MLB could become amenable to any changes to revenue sharing; and what will happen to the other particularly contentious bucket, the time it takes a player to reach arbitration. The players’ decision to drop their request to get players to free agency sooner wasn’t particularly surprising, considering what the union has been talking about for years, publicly, is the plight of younger players. The union’s proposal to get players to arbitration after two years from November went unchanged on Monday. At the time, the league said it had no interest in discussing it.

Confirmed the MLB owners contingent arrived at the hotel an hour ago. Should be in the middle of the proposal right now.

Correct, there were rumours, but nothing was confirmed. Its all speculation. Essentially he got 1 million more per year in Seattle, so yeah.. it does make a bit of sense that the offer may have been on the table for both guys and Gausman took it first. But, if that was the case, why would Seattle have paid more if they knew Toronto was out of it after signing Gausman? Meh. I really find Ray's statement after signing with Seattle interesting. It's like he had it pre-made for either Seattle or the Jays. "There's something special going on here with a team coming off a 90 win season and I'm excited to be a part of it."

Depends on why he felt the need to clarify the issue. He could have just been addressing rampant twitter speculation from fans that he chose Toronto over SF with offers from both. Toronto never offered Ray or Semien anything in the offseason officially other than the QO's either... so did we know something the other teams didn't?

I think we do miss some spring training games, but I also doubt any regular season will be missed.

Agreed, but telling dinosaurs that they need to move out of the dinosaur age is easier said than done.

They'll never do anything like that though. The only time anything gets done is when games being missed is on the line. If they agree to extend the current CBA for 1 year, they will literally do NOTHING until January of 2023 when games are on the line... may as well do it now and get it over with

I'm not optimistic either. What will likely happen is the players will submit their proposal containing 15 things they want but know they wont get. The owners will look at it and completely disregard it, just like the union did on the owners first proposal... and Manfred will come out and say "based on this offer it's clear the union is not interested in negotiating...etc etc blah blah" and the union will say "we submitted what we think is a fair and reasonable offer and it's now out of our hands until we see the owners next proposal....etc etc blah blah..." This negotiation could really be over soon if the players union accepts they cannot get everything they want and truly just focus on 1or 2 wins... get your minimum salary increase (but make it worth it), arbitration at the start of year 3 - and call it a win. In exchange, you keep the luxury tax as is for now and agree to expanded playoffs. Universal DH both sides want, so that gets thrown in, and the deal is done by the end of the week. Save the service time manipulation and revenue sharing until the next go around.

How is it ironic that a computer needs assistance from a human? All computers and programs are created from human input.