The math has already been done. A few games ago, even if the Yankees played .500 ball the rest of the season, the Jays need to win at a .630 clip the rest of the way to beat them by 1 game.
Now, I can certainly see the Jays as capable of winning at .630, but no way the Yankess go .500 or worse unless at least 4 regulars get hurt for a huge stretch of time. It's possible, but it's not probable. That .630 winning percentage for the Jays also assumes total health, which is not likely either.
All of that said, the Jays were pretty much out of the playoff picture last year before they won 14 or 15 games in a row at that one point towards the end of the season and ended up missing by 1 game. Anything is possible I guess.