John_Havok

looked like a hit and run. Dont usually see Bo whiffing on a centre cut fastball.

Are you incapable of taking 30 seconds to google easily found numbers? Genuinely curious, no sarcasm.

I tend to agree. But, part of the reason for Gausman skipping the AS game and obviously not starting again right away after the break, is to ensure he's a little fresher. There's no reason not to have him pitching tonight if that wasn't their thought process. Plus, no teams 5th starter is ever really consistent, that's why they are 5th starters. There is probably a way to keep Gausman and Berrios going more regularly, while juggling Ryu and Kikuchi back and forth from the pen to the rotation depending on how the schedule plays to give Gausman and Berrios an extra day here and there when they feel they need it.

Gausman usually ssees a delcine in the second half too, not as bad as Kikuchi, but noticeable. Perhaps a 6 man rotation would help keep them both a little fresher and more in line with their 1st half results.

He's in Toronto for the game tonight to, we'll probably see him wandering around.

Belt please

I know, that's why i dont get why players that have never played there would see it as irritating. It's about as painless as any other flights they have anywhere else.

I think it looks fine. Clean look, not stupidly large or anything. Nothing they can do about the colours since TDs colours are green. It doesnt really take away from anything and if youre not looking for it, you probably wouldn't really notice it. said nobody. ever. Ugly as f***.

It's really weird, some people just see crossing the border that many times per year as annoying, it's not really anything to do with the city of Toronto itself. I dont really know why that would be annoyoing since youd only do it once every couple of weeks, and im sure it's not like they get strip searched every time or anything and probably get waived through pretty casually.

He's obviously happy to be in St Louis or he would have opted out of that deal before the start of the season when he could have probably gotten more in free agency than what was remaining. I guess that might have changed given their crappiness this season, but i doubt it's changed that much.

Also doesnt seem to impact them in the regular season since they can rotate an army of healthy and competant but not stellar relievers in and out all season long, but can't do that in the playoffs due to roster restrictions.

Do you think these guys just come up with one formula that kinda works and then never touch it again without considering other things or possible flaws? Or is it possible, they have access to far more information and data than you and your assumptions and have already done as many calculations so professional economists and statisticians can with what they had. The man literally said they are constantly working on new ways to evaluate these things now that they have access to all the Statcast metrics and literally released two new metrics on baseball savant this morning. So yes, of course I know the metrics aren’t perfect, but that doesn’t mean you should expect some massive changes in defensive value based on your feelings. Chances are any changes to defensive value with all this new info will be minimal and would amount to refining what the current metrics reflect, not blowing them up and realizing that their current +/- 2 or 3 runs on scooping is suddenly going to be +/- 15-20 runs.

I think it's pretty safe to say Cimber will be toasted. I wouldnt lose sleep if both Biggio and Espinal were also cut, but .. neither would be expensive to retain either if they wanted to keep at least one of them for the bench. Without going external, i guess Davis Schneider has definitely earned the chance to compete for a role, be plays 2nd, 3rd and the OF, so he would fit in if he can hack it. Orelvis and Barger will surely get long looks in ST for roles also, so that's another couple guys for IF spots. SP is largely set already, but for sure there will need to be depth sought, but mostly minor league signings i would guess there.

Orelvis is knocking on the door for 3B also, depending on how his impending move to AAA goes.

Davidi's writeup on Orelvis and a snippet on Tiedemann Lefty Ricky Tiedemann has been up to 96-97 m.p.h. during live batting practices in his build up after a biceps injury and he’s trending toward a return to New Hampshire in about three weeks. https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/blue-jays-farm-report-better-pitch-selection-helps-martinez-hit-for-more-than-just-power?fbclid=IwAR0wDIbP--s_E6QuVMtPGqKqT5Q0L8G9O5L0UXVjwWK_cXpW7zAK2SO9qpU At the end of last season, after Orelvis Martinez hit 30 home runs as a 20-year-old in double-A, the hard-hitting infielder had reason to feel good about his progress. After all, he’d successfully made the jump to the Eastern League, where he was four years younger than average, and held his own with the New Hampshire Fisher Cats. If he chose to be set in his ways, well, you could understand that. Martinez wasn’t, though, refusing to overlook all the empty at-bats within his .203 average and .286 on-base percentage and just harp on the damage. As he and the Toronto Blue Jays dug into next steps, they made pitch recognition and swing decisions a focal point and after a slow start, a .301/.425/.609 stretch over his last 47 games suggests his new approach at the plate is really starting to take, with a promotion to triple-A Buffalo expected in the coming days. “Yeah, 30 homers is a good number but I think I can do better than that,” Martinez says during a recent interview in Manchester, N.H., interpreted by teammate Steward Berroa. “I can hit 30 homers with a decent average and be in more situations to hit the ball more, than just having 30 homers with a really low average. I'm always open to receiving feedback and getting better.” Encouraging for the Blue Jays is that the now 21-year-old stuck with it even after an .089/.169/.266 start through his first 22 games, when he was making good contact but not getting results. His strikeout percentage of 28.5 per cent a year ago is down to 19.8 per cent while his walk rate went from 8.1 to 14.2 per cent. If those lock in, especially up a level with Buffalo, the Blue Jays may really have something given Martinez’s prolific natural power. “There were so many times last year that he just swung at the pitchers’ pitches,” says Cesar Martin, his manager with the Fisher Cats last year and this one. “He said, ‘That's on me, I was chasing, trying to hit everything out.’ Now he has a better idea what the pitcher is trying to do to him. And it’s not a secret. The guys have a lot of info on him and everybody knows what type of power he has, so they’re not going to give him a cookie. The patience that he’s showing right now, the discipline is (leading to) a lot of improvements.” A continued emergence for Martinez would be timely for the Blue Jays, who are facing some significant roster decisions at the big-league level in the coming years. Near-term is the imminent free agency of third baseman Matt Chapman and the lack of an obvious replacement, either already on the major-league roster or in free agency, creating a potential window for himself or Addison Barger, another hard-hitting shortstop/third baseman currently at Buffalo, should they make enough progress. What gives Martinez’s emphasis on pitch recognition and selection a chance to really hold is that he doesn’t have to work for his power, a gift he’s come to understand. “Basically the difference is last season, I was going up there to swing hard and sometimes I got out of control,” says Martinez. “So this year I have the same intent to swing hard, but I've been focused more on control, like swing hard, but more under control. That is getting better. … “I'm not going to focus on hitting the ball really far because I know I have that already. I'm just trying to improve myself in a contact way. The swing decisions come with the approach that I have right now.” Martin likes that the gains in his discipline haven’t come at the expense of “his aggressiveness at the plate.” “He's just like, ‘I cannot cover everything,’ you know what I mean?” Martin continues. “It’s ‘I'm going to look for my pitch, if it's in this location, I'm going to swing.’”

If the people who helped bring advanced stats to the forefront of baseball analytics had a nickel for everytime some writer or fan misunderstood and misused their stuff (myself included), they would all be the richest beings on earth.

Id love to see some of his swing metrics to see how much batspeed he may have lost in the past few seasons.

This is more palatable for sure. If you could get the Cards to pay another portion of that down, I'd like it even more. However, this season The jays aren't really looking to switch up at 3b. rest of season projections have Chappy and Arenado within error margins of each other, so swapping out Chappy for Arenado doesnt really move the needle for 2023 - unless you get something of need in return for Chapman that is usable right now. Plus we'd be giving up other assets to get Arenado. 2024 and beyond... yeah it could make sense. This maybe lines up better as an upcoming offseasn type of deal if he's not dealt at this deadline.

Something else Tom said is also at play here.... evaluating the play vs evaluating the player. When evaluating the play, scooping, picking, jumping, stretching etc.... all valuable when it comes to each individual play. But when every 1B does an adequate job at those plays nearly all the time, the value on the player is lessened.

Sure would be nice to win a bloody game against Baltimore and Boston going down the stretch though.

Surely do love his skillset, but should the Jays really be looking to add another long term deal to the pile at that dollar value?

Apparently the numbers have been run, 2-3 runs +/- per season from the best one above average to the worst. I truly think you guys have a fundamentally flawed view of how well every 1b does with this type of play virtually all of the time. It has value, just not the value you want to give it because they all do it well.

The line at 1b is probably much much much thinner than most when specifically referencing picks from the dirt and other such events.

I'm not weighing the routine plays, I'm willing to bet there are thousands of pick, jump and stretch catches by 1b across baseball every year that are easily comparable by people who have access to the data. Take any average Jays game with Vlad alone and you see probably 3-5 every game. double that(2 teams playing in every game) and multiply by the total number of games in a season and you have a quick and dirty estimate of the number of total plays that fit that description. That would easily number in the thousands. Then, youd have to grade them by degree of difficulty and makeability using readily available statcast data (readily available to them... not us) and then see who makes more or less than average and break down the run assessments to each make or miss. The vast majority of these plays get made. I think you are currently under the belief that even the average 1b doesn't make as many routine or even semi-hard picks on a regular basis... when they do.

And overall as mentioned by Tom in the other thread, over the course of a season... thousands of plays, 1 guy vs the next might be +/- 2-3 runs vs the average 1B. It's a thing, it's just not that different from one 1b to the next.