John_Havok

What was the score at the time?

Soto - Judge - Stanton go back to back to back today. Judge with another 2 HR game.

What did I miss? I was out running errands.

Same reason as all the other Buffalo players, auditions. They could do worse than having a switch hitting back-up CF with plus plus speed on the bench. Even with his garbage bat so far he's a positive contributor thanks to defense and baserunning. That said, he does need to show more with the stick than he has. Needs the wRC+ to be minimum ~80-85, 55 so far.

Was is a risk? Sure. Judge hitting 60 bombs, while... surprising on some levels, wasn't all that surprising if he stayed healthy for a full season. The entire league could see that. Dude is walking mountain that could fall out of bed and hit 40 HRs by accident.

You're technically correct, but also downplaying the significant impacts of Vlad's bad baserunning and defensive liabilities. I also think you're really down playing the significance of 70 bases per season. That's 17 HRs worth of walks. Sure, 70 walks isn't directly equal to 17 HRs, but it's quite a large difference in the totality of a season when you combine it with the bad D and bad baserunning. You're other question about whether front offices care... of course they do. It's just a matter of how much they care about those other factors limiting the value of the player vs the rest of the team. A team with overall great D and great baserunning wont give 2 shits about Vlad bad D and baserunning as long as he's hitting 40+ HRs per season. Maybe that's a general truth for any player. Here's how I look at the situation. If I'm a GM and I have Soto and Vlad as available, at the same time, in free agency, which guy am I going to prioritize if both positions they play is an area of need? My answer is Soto based on the total package, 10 times out of 10. That's not a slight on Vlad either, it's just the reality that Soto is a much more valuable player on the field than Vlad is when you're looking at total wins.

You are incorrect. Judge was always near the top of the wRC+ boards. His issue was health, which decreased his overall fWAR. He was always a top end hitter, who just couldn't stay on the field.

I agree. What's encouraging ands kinda weird so far is the changes in his stuff+ and location+ from this season to last, along with the introduction of the splitter. FA STUFF+/location+ went from 109/104 in 2023 to 95/105 in 2024 Slider: didn't throw enough in 2023 to register; 2024 is 90/117 Splitter: didn't throw at all until 2024; 106/105 Curve: went from 96/104 to 102/93 He's even experimenting a bit with a sinker this season, but nowhere near enough pitches to judge it yet. Pitch mix from 2023 to RHB was FB/CU/SL at 45/33/23% respectively. To LHB he was basically a 2 pitch guy, FB/CU at 58/35% and sprinkled 7% SL. Pitch mix 2024 to RHB FB/CU/SPL/SL/SINK is 51/22/10/14/3, vs LHB it's FB/CU/SPL/SL with 54/19/27/1 Whiff rates overall per pitch 2023 to 2024 FA:increased 16.9 to 18.6 CU: decreased 35.5 to 22.4 SL: increased 25.8 to 40.5 Split: no data in 2023, 22% 2024. For RHB went from a 3 pitch mix to 4, for LHB, a 2 pitch mix to 3. Really good velo separation from the SPL to the FA too at about 10 MPH. Some other weirdness in his numbers though, like the SL and CU are getting nuked... like the wOBA/xWOBA for his CU is .416/.330 and the slider is .558/.365. That's crazy. Similarly but in reverse, for the FA wOBA/xWOBA is .291/.334 SPL is just really good... .180/.184 Key takeaway - having the splitter being a legit well above average offering and the 2 breaking balls is allowing his FA to play up, even with worse stuff+ from last season on that pitch. Reduced reliance on the breakers is resulting in less overall damage even though those two pitches are not playing well individually.

It's certainly possible. They've been willing to spend big in the past, no reason why they couldn't again.

Judge got 9/360 - he's the clear #1 in baseball as a hitter. He was going into his age 31 season. Soto, the #2 or #5 depending on how you want to look at it... will be going into his age 26 season as a clear FA. Vlad, the #10/#40, will be going into his age 26 season with 1 season of control left. Soto is probably looking at a 13 year deal with an AAV somewhere between 40 and 45 million. Vlad ... i don't see it. I think Vlad will max out in the mid 30s for AAV... maybe 33-36. I don't think he gets the 13 years either. I think the differences in their two deals will be significant. And, if either of their agents think it's smart to bring up Ohtani as a comparable... laughable.

First, 70 walks is 70 bases. That's kind of a big deal. The reason wRC+ exists is to make these things easier to glance at and see who is demonstrably better, even when certain counting stats are similar. Since 2018, Soto's wRC+ is 158. Since Vlad joined the league, Vlad's wRC+ is 136. 22 points of wRC+ is significant. As is the bSr difference of -8.6 for Soto's career vs -13.6 for Vlads. Not a major difference there, but still a difference. Defense... Soto -49.2, Vlad -90. Kind of a big deal. I get that these types of mega deals probably don't get too much into the weeds of defense and baserunning, but ... even just at a glance, Soto is clearly a better hitter, runs the bases better, and is worth more defensively. The differences between the two players cannot simply be boiled down to "The only difference is 70 walks." BTW, since 2018, Soto is #2 in all of MLB in wRC+ behind only Judge, whos also better than Soto defensively and in baserunning. Then... there's fWAR. Exact same time frame for WAR, which will slightly penalize Vlad since he has about 120 less games played than Soto and a few others in the leaderboard, Soto still ranks top 5 at 35.8 fWAR. Vlad???? 40th at 15.9. Right behind Vlad? Whit Merrifield at 15.8. Even adding on 120 games worth for Vlad's averages would put him around 25th... or so. So, Soto #2 and #5 in wRC+ and fWAR. Vlad... #10 and #40. "The only difference is 70 walks."

Ideally yes, but you know Vlads camp is going to be waiting until Soto's deal is announced before they agree to anything. I can't seriously think they think Vlad and Soto are in the same level, but...waiting until the absolute elite guy signs is always the way to go for the guys in the next tier down, even if it's just and extension rather than a FA deal.

The hype train for Francis begins today. All aboard!

I think the more frustrating part of the Barrio years was the absolute brain-dead baserunning. Like, you can live with the ok to subpar D as long as they're mashing with the bat but they just gave away so much on the basepaths it was nauseating.

He's has some excellent stretches with multiple games looking like a beast with the Jays too. He has really good stuff

Bassitt out there showing everyone part of the unfixable problems

Could be a thing where Mattingly can see the problems, needs Hague to figure out what drills are needed to fix the problems.

No doubt. Lost some time with injury, but even if he shows up at 27 on the roster as a pen arm that doesn't suck, ...cool.

Here's my quite about Burnes "New guys traded for Burnes and that's about it, a good acquisition but that wasn't even really a supplement to a great staff, it was because they didn't have anyone even in the same talent realm as Grayson." And it was directly related to my position that so far, the Orioles have not been willing to supplement their roster with what's needed ro fill in the cracks. They had no front end starter, so they traded for 1 year of one. Now they have a few months left of him before he flies away because, imo, they won't do what's necessary to keep him based on history, though it remains to be seen with the new ownership. So far, all they've done is swing weird trades for garbage aside from Eflin, who has had exactly 1 great season in his career. My opinion of the Os lack of pushing to win will change if they actually make meaningful signings or trades that land non-rental top talent. As usual you've read into my post what you want to read.

Possible, but they also get far more opportunities to show their defensive usefulness (framing) than any other position.

Pipeline? Check. Willingness to supplement with actual impact talent? Doesn't seem so. Willingness to spend on top tier FA to supplement? TBD Old ownership was a hell no on both the 2nd and 3rd questions. New guys traded for Burnes and that's about it, a good acquisition but that wasn't even really a supplement to a great staff, it was because they didn't have anyone even in the same talent realm as Grayson. Will be a shame when they're out in the second round again this year

Yes, and ...who cares if it's first ballot or not. The only reason people attach meaning to first ballot is because of the idiotic rules of HoF voting

I selfishly wish though that he would be told the team his plans to retire so they could bring him to Toronto and announce it at the ballpark, even if it before the last game of the Reds/Jays series. Wouldn't have had to call him up, or add him to the roster, just let him announce it there instead of from Buffalo. But then, I guess the way he did it ultimately fits the type of guy he is

I fully agree his statement was criticalmof the FO. I just dispute the specifics that people read into it... the "he must mean THIS specific criticism" and "Jays must have told him to walk back his comments" stuff. That's all guys made up in people heads. I'm sure the jays PR called Bassitt and alsed him what he meant for internal reasons. I don't think they forced him to put out an additional comment. I don't think they "sent" Shi or Zwelling out with instructions to get Bassitt to clarify anything. Any good Jays reporter would have seen that podcast and knew a follow up would be worthy of attention. Is it possible? Sure. Anything is possible. It's just weird around here when something regarding Jays staff, players etc happens, the people involved will al deny it happens a certain way, but people here will have already made up their minds about whatvtheybthink really happened and won't believe the denials. Flip it, when multiple Jays office says yes, this is exactly what happened, we did this, it was this guys decision, this other guy had nothing to do with it, and everyone involved and thought to be involved all says the same thing, it's still not believed because people have already made up their mind about how it must have happened. Whether it's a denial or a complete agreement, nope. Can't be that way, it must be what I think.

Right now sure. He's not playing right now. When he comes back, that will be the test. I agree he looked mentally checked out a ton of the time. He said he would welcome a trade (allegedly) a quote from "a friend". He's been hittiing like dog s*** and has been chronically injured in the same place over the past season, so it's hard to say if the attitude stems from that or something else. Yes, they should absolutely explore trading him in the offseason. No, they shouldn't just trade him for the sake of trading him. If the return isn't there, you take your chances that the sulky child will use his impending free agency as enough motivation to stop being a baby, and start playing like he can. Then, if they're winning at that point, the toxicity will likely be minimal.