John_Havok

Berrios peripherals are actually...not bad. His HRs given up are really the only massive problem.

This glut of 1-1.5 war plug ins is going to be currency to land some decent relievers in the offseason. Legit, there just nowhere to play all of them.

Agreed. I don't see ace upside in Francis. The pure stuff just isn't really there, but his command is definitely good enough to get his stuff to play up a bit. Yariel probably has a higher ceiling from a pure stuff perspective but his consistency and command aren't there. He's a guy who flashes that top of the rotation filth, bit it's too sporadic.

And doing it without his 95 mph fastball too. I think. A bit is due to fatigue I think so next season we might see a bit more in the strikeout department

another bit of Nimmala porn from Keegan Matheson, along with a few others: https://www.mlb.com/bluejays/news/arjun-nimmala-showing-improvement-exciting-blue-jays TORONTO -- The Blue Jays don’t just need to develop more big leaguers, they need to develop a star. That’s the secret sauce. Homegrown stars, like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, allow you to spend freely and build a franchise around them. Even though it hasn’t added up to what Toronto envisioned, adding Hyun Jin Ryu, George Springer, Kevin Gausman, José Berrios, Chris Bassitt and other veterans around a young core felt like a formula for success along the way. Regardless of whether Vladdy and Bichette stay beyond 2025, the Blue Jays need another wave of core players. One or two from their current busload of young infielders could separate themselves from the pack, but down in the lower levels of the Minor Leagues, No. 5 prospect Arjun Nimmala has the talent this organization can dream on. This is what Toronto expected from the No. 20 overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft, but to see it so early from an 18-year-old has been particularly encouraging. Most importantly, he’s failed, adapted and bounced back, leaving an extremely strong impression on many in the organization. Nimmala was challenged with an assignment to Single-A Dunedin right out of the gate this season … and it didn’t go well. Over 29 games, he hit just .167 and struck out 43 times in 108 at-bats. He looked overmatched against older, more experienced pitchers, because of course he did. The Blue Jays pulled Nimmala back to their complex and placed him on the development list at midseason to work on some specifics, and by the time he returned to Single-A, all of that work paid off. In Nimmala’s 53 games at Single-A to finish the 2024 season, he hit .265 with 13 home runs and an .895 OPS, that unique swing with its high finish working wonders as he consistently drove the ball in the air. So many top prospects soar through the Minor Leagues without experiencing failure, which leaves an unknown variable for the biggest stage. Trying to make true adjustments for the first time against Aaron Judge or Tarik Skubal? Good luck. The Blue Jays still have more advanced prospects with serious upside, most notably No. 2 prospect Orelvis Martinez, who lost much of this season to an 80-game suspension after testing positive for a performance-enhancing substance. Martinez will be one of the biggest stories in camp come spring, but when we start to look a couple of years down the line -- beyond Guerrero and Bichette’s current contracts -- Nimmala is already positioning himself as a player who could climb the Top 100 list and become a potential piece of this franchise’s core.   PROSPECT NOTES Alan Roden Triple-A Buffalo Bisons: OF Alan Roden (No. 13) Roden carried the reputation of an on-base machine into this season, which has held true. Most encouraging has been his 14 home runs, including seven with a .493 slugging percentage since his midseason promotion to Buffalo. This leaves him with a .389 on-base percentage and an .853 OPS between both levels this season, positioning Roden well to compete for a job next spring. Hitting for power will determine whether Roden can be an everyday player in the big leagues, but this organization has long struggled to develop outfielders, so he’ll have every opportunity. Adam Macko Double-A New Hampshire Fisher Cats: LHP Adam Macko (No. 9) Macko has been building back up after an IL stint earlier this season, and he returned to Double-A on Wednesday, when he allowed six runs over four innings. Macko has posted a 4.87 ERA over 81 1/3 innings with New Hampshire this season, but at his best, his talent is still tantalizing. He’s a breakout candidate for next spring if he can stay healthy. Kendry Rojas High-A Vancouver: LHP Kendry Rojas (No. 12) What a run for Rojas. He’s put up a 2.43 ERA over 55 2/3 innings in High-A, and his stuff has really popped. Getting Rojas up to a full starter’s workload is still a challenge, but regardless of which role he ends up in long-term, Toronto has some serious upside to work with. Keep Rojas’ name in mind for spring. Sean Keys Single-A Dunedin: 3B Sean Keys (No. 25) Keys, the Blue Jays’ fourth-round pick this summer, is off to a fine start in pro ball. He hit .293 with an .829 OPS across 22 games in Single-A, and while that’s not much of a snapshot, Keys is an “analytics darling” who projects to have a strong plate approach. BOWDEN FRANCIS ... AGAIN Bowden Francis For the second time in 18 days, Bowden Francis lost a no-hitter on a home run in the top of the ninth. It’s heartbreaking in the moment, but Francis has been the story of the season for the Blue Jays, a remarkable turnaround to establish himself as a legitimate MLB starter. Here’s what Francis and manager John Schneider had to say after the game: Francis: “I can do this. I can start in the big leagues. I feel like I’ve always believed that. I feel like a lot of people … I don’t know. A lot of guys lost hope early on this year. I didn’t. That’s how things go; everyone says, 'What have you done for me lately?' I feel like anyone can have two bad starts. I just feel like I’m getting my shot now, and I’m trying to make the most of it. I’m trusting my stuff and trusting the people around me.” Schneider: “He’s mature. He’s really, really wise beyond his years. He does a really good job of looking at the big picture. He’ll take positives out of this, and he’ll probably laugh a little bit at the fact he’s lost two [no-hitters] in the ninth inning on home runs. I just can’t speak enough about how he’s evolved and how much he’s taken from this opportunity. It’s been so cool to watch.”

Maybe a bit low on the war side, his D and baserunning are still good. I figure 2-2.5. He's far more likely to be league average than Giancarlo Stanton for example, also heading into his 35 season next year.

Sure... but he'll also have another year of age next season. Mechanical tweaks will help in the short term, but its not really reasonable to expect a 126 wRC+ from him next season. His career slash is 127 and not many guys are hitting their career average when they're 35. Maybe my 95-100 was a bit harsh, but I certainly wouldn't be projecting 115-120 either. It sure would be nice though. In his favour, walk rates and K rates are in line with norms, so he's not really losing bat-to-ball or his pitch recognition. BAserunning is still top shelf. Defense, while lower this season still passes the eye test and his deficiencies are arm related rather than being Teoscar-esque, so that's something that can be expected to bounce back next year to be at least average to slightly above. Not in his favour, power #'s are trending down. Likely in large part to his disastrous launch angle. 6th percentile this year and a steady decline since 2021. 80th percentile, to 29th percentile in 2022, 26th in 20223, to 6th this season. Average exit velo is another steady downward trend. He'll be on the roster next season for sure unless Atkins pulls a rabbit out of his ass, but there's truly not much to expect significant contributions from him in 2025 and 2026. Still a useful player, but in the 2-2.5 fWAR area tops. Probably shouldn't be leading off anymore unless he's in the middle of a heater.

you sonuvabitch.

Arson Judge... he didn't even spell his name right in the tweet ffs.

Yeah. Looks like he's a 95- 100 wRC+ going forward. He's clearly not as bad as his slump this year, but also clearly not the hitter he was a few years ago. His overall power is just vanishing.

While true, it's also a general truth that FB goes down year over year on average. I'm not really sure how much but i would guess at least 0.3 MPH per season would be in the right area. Seeing a bump rather than a decrease would be difficult to explain, unless he found some mechanical change that unlocked more, rather than just simply trying to throw harder. Either way, mechanical change or increased effort - with pitchers that definitely increases injury risk over and above the usual pitcher injury risks.

It's Heyman....I'd say that's a compliment

In 4 of his last 6 starts, Bowden Francis allowed only 1 hit.

What a giant s*** the pen just took on Francis

Lol...unreal

Screw the season at this point, let's see some history

Mention who?

Gotta love baseball superstitions. It's like Francis doesn't even exist in the dugout right now

Bit of a stretch. Morrow struck out 19 in that start. Francis has 1. f*** it though. Bring it home kid.

f*** you ump....if that blatant strike 3 had resulted in a hit...

I mean. He's painting those corners like crazy right now...2 pitches and 2 outs in the 8th

Wow ... literally sticks his elbow put to get hit and the ump just let's him. Lol

This should be his last inning, I get that he has a no hitter but it's also clear he's running on fumes.

Wow, nice catch Schneider. Keep that no-no going

Francis is clearly gassed...he's been pitching well but damn, throwing 89-90 4 seamers and sinkers. Occasionally hitting 92.