There has been a lot of talk about expansion and realignment lately, with the Blue Jays as one several teams that are seemingly 'on the bubble' with regards to a division change. I have seen scenarios where we remain in the East, move to the Central, or end up in an entirely new division centered around the Great Lakes. This could be a very consequential decision for the Blue Jays. I won't try to predict the future, but it's easy to imagine a scenario where we were in the Central for the last 30 years and had a few more playoff appearances and perhaps even another World Series title.
I thought it would be fun to take a look at the map and see if we can make some predictions about where the Jays will end up. These could be wrong, but I'm going to predict some of the criteria that will be important to MLB, based on the way they have historically done things. I'm also going to use 4 divisions of 4 teams in each league.
My criteria in order of importance are:
- Preservation of historic rivalries
- Minimal league switches for existing teams
- Same state/city teams being in different leagues (except California and Pirates/Phillies)
- One expansion team in each league
- Geography and travel schedules
I figured that the easiest way to start would be to identify some of MLB's best and most longstanding rivalries to start the divisions and here's what I came up with:
AL East:
Yankees
Red Sox
Orioles
AL Great Lakes:
Tigers
Guardians
White Sox
AL Central:
AL West:
NL East:
Braves
Phillies
NL Central:
Pirates
Reds
NL Midwest:
Cubs
Cardinals
NL West:
Giants
Dodgers
These aren't set in stone, but you can bet that MLB would be keen to keep those rivalries intact for the most part, particularly the big ones like Yankees-Red Sox and Cubs-Cardinals. Next I'm going to look at the West Divisions, which will be painfully obvious if a team ends up in Portland (which I predict here), since there will be 8 teams on the West Coast. As per my criteria, I will prioritize league continuity for these teams. I'm also going to add the Mets to the NL East because it's just obvious.
AL East:
Yankees
Red Sox
Orioles
AL Great Lakes:
Tigers
Guardians
White Sox
AL Central:
AL West:
Athletics
Angels
Mariners
Portland
NL East:
Braves
Phillies
Mets
NL Central:
Pirates
Reds
NL Midwest:
Cubs
Cardinals
NL West:
Giants
Dodgers
Padres
Diamondbacks
I've been through this exercise with a different thought process a few times and you always end up with the same teams that just aren't obvious fits in any division. The Blue Jays are one of those teams, but there are also the Rockies, the Texas teams, and the Florida teams. I recall back in 2013 that MLB had serious reservations about moving the Astros to the AL, given that they would be in the same league as the Rangers. This gives them an opportunity to resolve that longstanding problem. Colorado also stands out as a big problem geographically, given that the 3 closest remaining teams are all in the AL (Minnesota, Kansas City, and Texas). For that reason, I will propose my one and only league change and create a new AL Central division. This also leaves us with 2 remaining teams in the AL, the Blue Jays and the Rays, and their fit is obvious. The only other option for the Jays is to remain in the East and create some kind of southern division for the Rays, but I haven't seen anything that really makes sense.
The stickiest part of this exercise for me was what to do with the rest of the NL teams (Brewers, Astros, Marlins, Nationals, and the expansion franchise). Keeping the Braves and Phillies rivalry intact results in some wacky divisions that I couldn't resolve, but once I cracked it, everything really fell into place and made sense from a geographic standpoint, so that's what I did.
AL East:
Yankees
Red Sox
Orioles
Rays
AL Great Lakes:
Tigers
Guardians
White Sox
Blue Jays
AL Central:
Twins
Rockies
Rangers
Royals
AL West:
Athletics
Angels
Mariners
Portland
NL East:
Nationals
Phillies
Mets
Marlins
NL Central:
Pirates
Reds
Braves
Memphis ?
NL Midwest:
Cubs
Cardinals
Brewers
Astros
NL West:
Giants
Dodgers
Padres
Diamondbacks
Don't take any of this too seriously, but this is a sensible division alignment that prioritizes the criteria that I listed above. I essentially left four divisions entirely intact (minus one team) and two others with 3 of the same teams. The Al Central (with the Twins and Royals remaining) and the NL Central (with the Reds and Pirates remaining) were the only divisions that were kind of blown up, but they each make a lot of geographic sense. You could very well see something like this if the league wants to minimize disruptions.
Hopefully it leads to some good discussion. Please share what you think new divisions will be.