Idk.. Feels like your taking ax extremely, extremely small sample size and making a generalization on it. With young players especially, just in common sense.. I'd probably trust jamming the numbers of thousands of players into a machine and cranking out a prediction over a scouts opinion. How bad do scouts miss on tons of guys.. Lawrie, Snider, Wallace, Ackley, Miller.. You could go on forever obviously.. So it's clearly better to take some sort of average factoring in all the guys that failed.. Even so, obviously it'll be wrong all the time but I don't know how you could think the scouts consensus would be any better..
I think it's safer to question projections when we have plenty of data to look at. I think I made a thread of this sort in off-season. One prime example was Clayton Kershaw. Think he avgd 6.5 WAR the last 3 years and was projected at 3.6 or something. I mean in times like this I question the system. I also understand right now the computer is looking good in Clayton's case.. But really.. How many ppl would take the under with him on 3.6 pre-season.
I guess you have to account for injury of course..