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Laika

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Everything posted by Laika

  1. Laika
    In reality, a pick that is theoretically worth $10M will probably be worth either nothing or much, much more than that. Draft picks find their expected value "in the tails". The vast majority of picks are worth nothing but the ones who make it are worth a truckload. But we can't know the talent level of a particular draft and we can't know the talent level of a particular draft pick until years down the road. A decade+. A draft that looks like s*** before it happens might have a Mike Trout somewhere in the 2nd round, making the entire thing "a great draft". So the only thing you can sensibly do is average everything out, look at the mean, treat all drafts the same, treat all 22nd overall picks the same, assign dollar values to s***, run the numbers, make decisions, and move forward.
  2. Laika
    All while rostering an elite $30M*** lefty.
  3. Laika
    The mental gymnastics aren't necessary; you can basically consider the three picks as owned property already. Just factor the $ value of the lost pick into the size of the contract needed to sign the free agent.
  4. Laika
    Yeah the value of each pick is obviously different. And the competitive timeline of the MLB team changes pick valuation as well. Here is an intense article that lands at similar values. http://www.hardballtimes.com/the-net-value-of-draft-picks/
  5. Laika
    I feel a bit out of touch with the main board this year. I don't think I'll vote, but I'd like to make shout-outs to these posters: Nox / North / Cyborg --> please come back. TRM / FTD --> RIP in pieces. Orgfiller / Atothe / 43211234 --> the most underrated posters. keep it up G-Snarls / KingKat / TheHurl / Gov --> love u mods. King --> it bugs me to admit it but this board dies without you, buddy. AdamGreenwood --> probably my personal favourite poster. BBBB --> The worst poster and it's not even close. Grant77 --> shut up, Grant. o2cui2i --> lick me where i fart u bike every DDL and LoD member --> you are the only reason I still come here.
  6. Laika
    High praise from the brass means one of two things: 1) He is good 2) He is trade-bait Didn't Nestor Molina get pumped through the roof right before getting traded?
  7. Laika
    The player still has to miss 10 games. I don't see how that is "cheap". I think the added flexibility is a good thing. It lets some players with more minor injuries go on the DL and actually get healthy, rather than play through. 15 days is just too much for some of the minor injuries players get. What's interesting is that there was a 10 day DL until 1984, then it switched to 15 days. I wonder if any of the rationale / discussion from back then could be dug up and examined. Maybe someone who was alive and sentient back then can inform us. Hurl?
  8. Laika
    The international hard cap is fantastic for parity. I just wish it was a bit more nuanced. First, it should be slightly higher. Second, it should still scale slightly based on the MLB standings. Ex., teams get a tradable bonus pool on top of their hard cap that ranges from nothing to $1M.
  9. Laika
    Wouldn't this delay their ability to sign by at least a full year? I doubt we see it. Get money now make money sooner?
  10. Laika
    It really feels like Jose is just posturing with the Blue Jays right now. It's hard to imagine other teams giving up a pick for him AND he fits Toronto's roster needs pretty well (even though we don't want to see him in the outfield anymore, he has that flexibility). I think if Jose was coming from a different organization a lot of people on the board would be pointing him out as a potential value signing in a weak FA class. Steamer still loves him - 3.0 fWAR projection, up there beside Bradley Jr., Pollock, Lorenzo Cain, Cespedes...
  11. Laika
    He's only "struggling" because he's probably looking for a $20M AAV. Jose is absolutely better and more valuable than Kendrys Morales. He could probably sign a nice 3 year deal (richer than Morales' contract) with a number of teams today if he wanted to.
  12. Laika
    Stroman 3 main reasons - Talent is a lot closer than people think (edge Sanchez) - Sanchez' arm is going to blow up at some point - Sanchez has more trade value right now and it's not close
  13. Laika
    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=28408
  14. Laika
    Yes IN THEORY positional changes shouldn't change WAR. Brett Gardner is a good example of a guy who has slid between LF and CF and his UZR at both positions follows the spectrum pretty well. The theory is necessary in order to make WAR work though so this point is a bit tautological. You've already caught on to some of the nuance. In practice, you can't just put your three outfielders wherever you want and watch them accumulate the same total WAR. It just doesn't work like this in rel life.
  15. Laika
    Yes the positional adjustment is designed so that it's a net zero.
  16. Laika
    Lourdes gets a nice projection from ZiPS: .324 wOBA, 1.7 fWAR. Roster contributor!
  17. Laika
    Dr. YOLO checks into the discussion
  18. Laika
    *Grant voice* I'm just stating facts.
  19. Laika
    No, the "Biagini should be as good as Stroman" part.
  20. Laika
    Well, your opinion was absolutely terrible.
  21. Laika
    I can't really come around to Fowler. He's a good two way player but he's not a complete player and for most of his career he's been just an average OF. The combination of his talent, skill-set, probable contract, and the associated pick sacrifice just don't make me happy.
  22. Laika
    MLBTR Projected Contract ------> 6. Dexter Fowler – Four years, $64MM. Fowler is yet another player who is re-entering the free agent market after a disappointing 2015-16 offseason. Instead of the four-year deal we predicted, Fowler returned to the Cubs on a one-year contract in February. He led all free agents with a .393 on-base percentage in 2016, and reinforced his center [sic] field defense as at least average. Fowler will again have a qualifying offer attached, but this time we can see at least a dozen reasonable suitors. An openness to an outfield corner would boost Fowler’s market. The Cubs may consider a new contract in the wake of their World Championship, though they didn’t make a big offer to him a year ago and may need to free up their outfield logjam. The Cardinals, Nationals, Blue Jays, Rangers, White Sox, Indians, Dodgers, Mets, Phillies, Giants, and Mariners could have interest in Fowler.
  23. Laika
    http://www.fanragsports.com/mlb/heyman-blue-jays-interested-dexter-fowler-jay-bruce/ hmmmm
  24. Laika
    If he's FREE in trade then maybe it's fine. It's just money, maybe they can squeeze some value out of him via platoon w/ Upton. I honestly don't think they are that interested though. These stories on Bruce-Jays have been around for so f***ing long. It's like Toronto is just being used to try to drum up his value, since Toronto is an ostensible fit for him.
  25. Laika
    This would be pretty bad guys.
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