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Laika

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Everything posted by Laika

  1. Laika
    But it's not an advantage at ALL. In fact, small sample size s*** like that can be obfuscating and if relied on it can lead to making the objectively inferior decision.
  2. Laika
    Every major trade I've made in the last calendar year has been an unmitigated disaster. I refuse to tap the breaks though. Come at me this offseason, everybody!
  3. Laika
    Jesus man you just beat me like one week ago Have some sympathy
  4. Laika
    yes ugh same applies to trea turner fml
  5. Laika
    Oof. That's even worse.
  6. Laika
    Well, hypothetically for the same reason that one year of unregressed splits information is useless for an individual player but nine years of unregressed PAs for the same player, added together, might be stable. Collectively the Orioles had 1532 PA against LHP this year. Whether we need to regress their team split 80% to the mean, 50% to the mean, 20% to the mean is the question. I think it's an important question and I hope the Jays FO actually did some math. I think you're correct in being skeptical about using the team split as a definitive nugget of information.
  7. Laika
    Someone smarter than me will have to chime on but on the Team level, platoon splits might be stable at this point. It's not as simple as - the player's individual splits are unregressed and not stable so therefore the team level split is not stable.
  8. Laika
    I owned Buxton down the stretch in a casual league and he reallllly turned it around. Was quite good.
  9. Laika
    This is a much more accurate label and characterization of the particular player. Good job, B.A. in English.
  10. Laika
    Machado isn't "generational"... he's like, an annual talent. Maybe slightly less frequent. Harper, Bryant, Seager, Trout, Betts, Lindor - these guys are all like 23 years old and as good as Machado. The only generational talents in baseball are Kershaw and Trout, generally speaking. Others may be generational in a sub-category, such as "generational SS" or "generational power" or "generational fastball".
  11. Laika
    No but it'll be 8pm EST since there are no other games.
  12. Laika
    Orioles team wOBA vs LHP: .299 RHP: .335 Liriano! note - they sucked against LHP last year too
  13. Laika
    The 3 team tie-breaker scenario works like that. Teams A and B play. The winner gets a wild card berth. The loser of game #1 plays team C, at team C's home park. The winner gets a wild card berth.
  14. Laika
    This is actually what I've done a lot in the last week+. It's just more palatable to follow to games on the MLB app than it has been to watch a whole Jays game on TV.
  15. Laika
    I am pretty sure it is technically an extension of the regular season and expanded rosters apply.
  16. Laika
    It's hard because it's been like, 75% bad outcomes. Drags on you as a fan. You start expecting them to blow it and the viewing experience becomes almost negative.
  17. Laika
    I think you found the most important factor here. Money! You're right that .618 expected home winning percentage would be the inflection point but the MLB wide home team win % year to year tends to be between 53% and 56% so it's not likely correct to project any team to win 62% at home.
  18. Laika
    They could do that anyway with the two road games... just line up Gausman (their best SP) for game #2 / the WC game if they win game #1.
  19. Laika
    This is the team that asked for Aaron Sanchez for Dan Duquette and in the process: 1) tied themselves to Dan Duquette lmao 2) created a vacuum that Toronto filled with the highly competent Shapiro crew Baltimore is so dumb Gallardo-Miley-Ubaldo lmao
  20. Laika
    That's true. If you project specific starters and project vs specific teams on the road/home, maybe the home game option was better? I highly doubt it but someone on here with statistical savvy could take a crack at it. Cyborg where you at
  21. Laika
    Even if those odds are true talent... Chance to win one of two on the road would be like 73.1% vs. chance to win one at home of 61.7%
  22. Laika
    Musical potato
  23. Laika
    If true, The Orioles are incredibly stupid. Can't be true. How the f*** could an MLB team in 2016 opt for one chance instead of two chances to advance? There's no way that the home-road difference matters more than getting an entire additional chance.
  24. Laika
    btw Hurley can go ahead and make his compensation picks if he wants
  25. Laika
    I think he had to trade for the #1 though IIRC
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