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Laika

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Everything posted by Laika

  1. Laika
    Yes if it's a $90M contract then they potentially overpaid by about $20M in total value. But whatever.
  2. Laika
    This is silly. In general, FA contracts are neutral. That's how we determine what the market value of a win is!!! We look at the cost of wins on the free agent market!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  3. Laika
    Just to follow up... Here is how ZiPS Dan Szymborki declines WAR and evaluates Fowler. A bit more elegant than Fangraphs. That he goes -0.3 and then 0.2 is probably just a rounding aberration.
  4. Laika
    The Blue Jays already have an old as f*** team with lots of short term moves in their recent history! Russell Martin was Dexter Fowler two years ago. Tulowitzki could die any day now. Three of the starting rotation make free agent money, and they were all acquired or re-signed by the current FO. The farm was pillaged in the past two years for Tulo, Donaldson, Price (also Hawkins, Lowe, Revere, Pennington, Chavez, Upton, Feldman). Any full-steam-ahead moves right now aren't made in isolation, they would compound upon past transactions.
  5. Laika
    Amazing what can fit up there with a bit of lube
  6. Laika
    The risk that the 2019 CBA still f***s over internationals is huge though. If owners wanted it this time they'll want it next time, and they'll already have it so why give it up?
  7. Laika
    He'd absolutely make more. His MLB deal, while neutered, would be more than his JAPANESE! contract. And hit free agency hella young, and if good and healthy get like $300M.
  8. Laika
    I don't think you guys realize how many other options are out there.
  9. Laika
    Might as well tear it down now. Sell JD, Sanchy, Stro, Kev, Osuna, Joe while they are peaking. Sell Russ, Tulo, Happy, Marco, Frankie, Cheese while someone will still likely take on their contracts. Let's try again next decade. Can't do this without Dexter.
  10. Laika
    Oh, it's just one author's napkin assumptions. This is really the grand problem with $/WAR analysis of baseball contracts. You can assume so many different things and fudge the calculus so that disparate conclusions on the same deal land in different area codes. I wish Fangraphs wasn't so nonchalant about it. They should just build a rigorous machine, justify all the cogs, and plug players into it.
  11. Laika
    They're making that assumption for the sake of simplicity. What article is that from? The aging curve actually looks like a curve. So, we're allowed to use it in a more particular way with particular players. http://colgate.edu/portaldata/imagegallerywww/21c0d002-4098-4995-941f-9ae8013632ee/ImageGallery/2012/the-impact-of-age-on-baseball-players-performance.pdf http://www.hardballtimes.com/how-do-baseball-players-age-part-1/
  12. Laika
    You're both aging him too hard. The -0.5 WAR decline per season doesn't really start UNTIL around age 35. At 30 to 31 Fowler's expected decline is smaller, probably -0.1 or -0.2.
  13. Laika
    Taxi Squad / Swing-men (#6-10): Bolsinger Oberholtzer Biagini Sparky Realistic 2nd half options: None. This is a glaring organizational weakness. It would be amazing right now to have one or two SP prospects with upside who had logged a lot of fruitful AA innings last year. Pipe-dream 2nd half options (they could all maybe start at AA, so if they dominate...): Conner Greene Sean Reid-Foley Francisco Rios Apocalypse options (Org guys who would get their tits lit up): Shane Dawson Jeremy Gabryszwski Taylor Cole Casey Lawrence
  14. Laika
    Assorted scouting reports and notes on Sparky. 22 minutes interview with Sparky from Royals fan site - may 2015 -- http://clubhouseconversation.com/2016/05/glenn-sparkman/ Video from 2014 -- Tweets from this year: JJ Cooper ✔ @jjcoop36 13) Blue Jays take Royals RHP Glenn Sparkman. Has posted solid #s, avg stuff, but some deception. paul boyd ‏@nwapaulb Aug 19 Springdale, AR Glenn Sparkman sits San Antonio down 1-2-3 with 2Ks in the first. FB 92-95. Naturals coming up. Ben Poplin ‏@BenPoplin Aug 3 @LexingtonLegend Glenn Sparkman also dealing. 4IP, R, 3H, 0BB, 7K 54 pitches (42 strikes) FB 92-93 #Royals
  15. Laika
    Stroman for Blackmon+Bettis I'll also take McGee off their hands as a throw in, please and thank you. Tyler Anderson is really good but I don't want to just assume the Rockies would do something that dumb.
  16. Laika
    TIL you can't do an all caps title on the board
  17. Laika
    5/$86M http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/yankees-to-sign-aroldis-chapman.html I'm not really mad it's just a joke
  18. Laika
    Stroman aside, bring me: Dahl Tapia Chatwood Hoffman Ottavino Bettis ..... I wonder if the Rockies even realize that they actually have a really strong rotation one through six?
  19. Laika
    Rockies I would trade Stroman for: Nolan Arenado Jon Gray Trevor Story (I guess?) Tyler Anderson (maybe?) that's it!
  20. Laika
    Loup is actually good though.
  21. Laika
    Man, it would have been hard to get a better 1-2 quality punch than Moncada-Kopech. That's a top 5 prospect and a top 30 prospect. What other team has that and wanted Sale?
  22. Laika
    Apparently it's Giolito + Reynaldo Lopez + Dane Dunning wowee
  23. Laika
    DDL: Trade Blocks ProBoards seems to be dead for trade block purposes. To facilitate league activity we will link personal trade blocks through the master spreadsheet. You can make your own Google Document, make yourself the only one who can edit it, and put your trade block there. Post the link in the message board thread or email it to a commissioner and they will add the link to our master sheet. Organize, visualize, and structure your trade block however you want! If you wish, you can do a detailed spreadsheet sorting your entire roster into categories like 'very available' and 'you'll have to blow me away'. You can add pictures and scouting reports of your players. You can add links to their Fangraphs pages. Alternatively, you can keep it short and sweet, maybe just pointing out which positions you need and what positions you have available. Please add an "Updated on [date]" piece to the top of any trade block documents so people know how current it is.
  24. Laika
    Let's ask our IT guy, z3r0s. ProBoards seems to be dead for trade block purposes so it would be a good idea. What the other leagues do is everyone has their own Google Doc trade block document and the Master Sheet just links to all the trade blocks. One click away.
  25. Laika
    I think it's just this specific market, there seem to be a lot of slugger options.
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