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Laika

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Everything posted by Laika

  1. A lot of what you're carrying on about, or stumbling over, is just semantics. "league average player" in the WAR context means league average starter. "league average player" does not mean the mean talent of everybody who laces them up, for whatever amount of time, in the big leagues. In reality in baseball there is functional overlap between all levels, and a lengthy regress of talent. If we want, we can expand our circle from MLB starters to all MLB contributors, to AAA, AA, A, rookie ball and Carlos Gonzalez will go from a 50% percentile talent all the way to a 99.99th percentile talent. Your low PA cutoff was just making the circle too big. And your high PA cutoff was making it too small (teams use platoons, players get hurt - all "qualified" players taken together do not give us enough innings to play a full MLB season, not even close!) As for your last question, 162 games or 650 PA I believe, although I'm not 100%. See Jonathan Schoop last year for a close to ideal real world illustration. Go to the "Value" tab of his Fangraphs page. It's good that you're questioning things and thinking about things critically.
  2. Make me a huge gross offer. Do it.
  3. I'd have to organize a Women's March on the East Coast
  4. Using PA as a barometer invites extreme survivor bias. You're doing weird stuff that doesn't make sense and isn't necessary. A league average (100 wRC+) hitter with neutral defensive value and neutral baserunning value is worth 2 wins in a full season. To understand WHY you need to know how WAR is calculated. The components of WAR are: Hitting runs Baserunning runs Fielding runs Positional adjustment League adjustment Replacement level adjustment The first three components are all runs relative to league average skill at those specific things. If a player moves through the first five components and has calculated exactly zero runs, but they played a full season, then they get 20 replacement level runs. A league average player is worth 2 wins. But why? Because it's WINS ABOVE REPLACEMENT and we specifically want league average players to be given an arbitrary number higher than zero. The 2.0 = average line was set in the creation of the statistic! But why 2? Because there is a set number of wins in baseball, and we know that an average team (.500 win rate) playing at true talent has, on average, a set of average players. We can crunch the numbers and figure out how many wins an average dude is worth on this scale. We could just as easily use WINS RELATIVE TO REPLACEMENT and the league average player would be worth zero wins. But, WRR is an inferior acronym.
  5. God forbid a prospect be strong! Brute strength homers don't count in the big leagues.
  6. Is "brute strength power" a scouting pejorative now?
  7. So the only difference between this red jersey and last year's red jersey is that the logo is all red instead of normal? Also, I guess the arm crest was a flag. sick update
  8. I'm not sure if Gurriel will even be given OF reps this year. They'll probably start him in Dunedin as a shortstop, one would think.
  9. I guess he has NL bench OF potential?
  10. At least the OF depth in 2017 looks to be solid enough: Bautista/Pillar Upton Pearce Carrera Pompey (AAA) Ramirez (AAA) Alford (AA) Smith Jr. (AAA) Several MiLB options that could contribute.
  11. Atkins implying that they aren't actively looking for another OF.
  12. Who would ever pick Matt Thaiss over Eric Thames in a fresh dynasty draft right now? Bonkers. I'd probably put Thames over Pujols tbh.
  13. omg he has Wil Myers 7th for 1B http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=31002 vogelbach and cron over bird lmao
  14. I've been checking for his updated top 500 every week o/u on Buxton's spot is set at 55
  15. I'm just parroting BP here
  16. Oh. Well he throws 100 and has a 60 OFP so that's dumb.
  17. mlb.com has those three prospects as Miami's 5th, 9th, and 16th best. All for Dan Straily!
  18. Like, 200% Castillo straight up for Straily is probably close and some people would prefer the Reds side of that 1for1. Straily is just not very good... a below average, #5 SP. Being said, the odds are that Brice and White never impact an MLB team.
  19. hahahah Marlins wow
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