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Laika

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Everything posted by Laika

  1. Laika
    fWAR is starting point and works for most pitchers in most contexts but it’s far from perfect. For example it would underrate RA Dickey by like 50%. And I am kind of a dick
  2. Laika
    Historically, sure. Although teams don't get awarded wins based on FIP. Going forward - lots of questions.
  3. Laika
    You should research how baseball reference and fangraphs calculate WAR differently. You should always look at both versions for pitchers and turn your brain on for five seconds during that process.
  4. Laika
    Mike Fiers has 8.0 RA9-WAR in the last two years compared to 3.3 for Porcello. bWAR is 6.3 to 4.3 fWAR 3.1 to 4.2 Mike Fiers might be good! f*** Steamer. I'll take, uh, neither in fantasy though.
  5. Laika
    No that was the old CBA
  6. Laika
    Really? f***, I did not know that
  7. Laika
    Nope. Dodgers get that pick now.
  8. Laika
    What’s his role and who does he bump? -12 outfielder in his career. Sucked in 2018 too. Outside of his one strong season he has like 1 total WAR in parts of four years. I think he’s just one of those guys that only seems exciting ostensibly and it’s due to previous fantasy baseball value and perceived upside
  9. Laika
    The moves this offseason are just a response to their situation, nothing wrong with the moves though. Dickerson is a good deal in a nutshell. Matt Kemp won't play. Nothing wrong with making Garret Cooper fight for playing time. None of these acquisitions are really blocking anyone - there will be plenty of playing time in Miami.
  10. Laika
    Unless he has a strong 2020 with zero health blips, Paxton will probably be thought of much like Ryu was. Great pitcher but age + lack of a durability track record will limit the amount of risks teams want to take. That's market dependent though. If Paxton is the most attractive arm on the market the story is different.
  11. Laika
    I don't get how it's even close. Ozuna has demonstrated 5 WAR upside and actually has the best single offensive season of the two. He's worth twice as much as Castellanos so if the money is close it's a no-brainer.
  12. Laika
    2005 team had 80 wins but deserved 88 wins by run differential. Unluckiest team in the league. 16-31 in one run games - worst in the league! 2008 had 86 wins but deserved 93! Again, tied for the unluckiest team in the league.
  13. Laika
    Well I couched the statement as "almost by definition" because there are rare exceptions for exceptional players or players who have had skill changes, etc. None of those apply to the Marlins deal. Stanton is an exceptional player but his contract is also unique in that there is, or at least was, an expectation that he will opt out after 2020. It's actually part of the deal that if he does NOT opt out Miami has to pay the Yankees like a $30M penalty.
  14. Laika
    Reyes and Buehrle were free agent contracts. Almost by definition they projected to have no surplus value; they were each non-assets in a nutshell. Johnson was the only one who realistically could have brought the Blue Jays some trade profit, if he beasted in 2013 like he had in two or three prior seasons. If Toronto tried to trade Ryu right now and asked for nothing in return they would get no interest. Non-asset. Reyes and Buehrle were the same thing. It's definitely not just hindsight. Many people (mostly here, it seemed) panned the trade from the jump, realizing how bad it was on paper and pointing out that AA was likely just setting money and prospects on fire. To me the trade only ever represented that our front office was kind of stupid and way behind the times. Some people like you didn't like the trade but were excited to watch the players / were excited that the team was trying to win. It's actually a small miracle that the team ended up making the playoffs in two subsequent years after such a disaster. Goes to show that you do not need to be anything close to perfect to win in the AL East anymore.
  15. Laika
    Johnson was arguably the main point of the trade for Toronto. I doubt it would have happened at all without him. God that trade was so obviously horrendous from day 1
  16. Laika
    Doesn't really change anything. He probably wouldn't have debuted but look at every other college SP from 2018: Gilbert - reached AA in 2019 Singer - AA Bubic - A+ Lynch - A+ Kowar - AA McClanahan - AA Rolison - A+
  17. Laika
    Flinging around some offers with Gio Urshela in them if anyone wants him. Such a stud last year
  18. Laika
    I’m 14
  19. Laika
    Edwin f***s
  20. Laika
    I generally agree but I don't think Toronto would care about Vlad being mentored by a guy who, uh, couldn't handle third base. Kind of the opposite of what they would want.
  21. Laika
    I would have taken Edwin at that price but I understand the team passing. They can probably get a player of similar use for notably less than $12M I mean Calhoun’s deal is a lower AAV and he’s a better player. Theoretically Toronto for $12M in AAV could get a bat and a good reliever or even two decent relievers
  22. Laika
    There was an earlier rumour that they offered on Strasburg too.
  23. Laika
    Really happy you added the “-Grant” part because I wasn’t sure who posted this
  24. Laika
    Yeah.... Keep in mind the very nature of negotiations - the two parties will often exchange different versions of the truth. There is a lot of misdirection going on. The perception of one party’s side of things is not necessarily the truth or the full picture
  25. Laika
    I don't agree entirely (with Jim). Derek Fisher's floor is worse than a 4th OF. For a fast and toolsy OF prospect he has not been a particularly good baserunner in his MLB career and he has only been a +5 OF per 150 games while playing mostly LF. Compare that to someone like Jake Marisnick, who does have a legit 4th OF floor, and Fisher is starting from a big deficit. I think he either hits enough to be a starter or a platoon outfielder, or he might not be a major leaguer. Of course the defense and/or baserunning could improve... but I think he'll live or die on the patience and power as carrying tools. I think his most likely outcome is a replacement level, zero WAR career.
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