With four people left, all having one loss, I have a basic 25% chance to win. Most baseball games are near coin-flips and all of us are smart enough people so winning will just be whoever is left after a bunch of coin-flips.
Even if the Rays only have a 35-40% chance to win today, if I am the only person to pick them this may be the best opportunity to elevate my chance to win from here on out.
Makes sense to me but I may be overthinking it.