Laika

The recent close losses really sting. Even though Toronto's playoff odds will still be listed at 60%+, Fangraphs now projects them to finish the season at an even 30-30 and the Tigers to finish at 29-31. That's soooo little wiggle room. Over a full 162 game season their projected final winning percentages would lead to 82 and 77 win totals respectively, so a lot more breathing room. Tigers have also called a bunch of useful youngsters up so it's not like they are trash. The last WC spot is basically a two team race.

The ump absolutely should have tossed Chapman. MLB has been f***ing up discipline on these problems forever. The warning system they use is reeeeeeee-stupid. If an ump thinks it was probably intentional, toss the player. I don't see the logic in allowing one guy to do it on purpose, then warning everybody. These things carry over across seasons.

I was trying to figure this out last night and watched a number of videos. Marco Estrada used to say that he would manipulate his leg drive on his changeup. Keeping the arm action the same is the whole point but I think he would drive less with his lower half to cleave off velocity. With Merryweather, I think he actually does something funny with his grip. If you grab a still frame when his arm is set, the ball appears to be sitting in the palm of his hand and his fingers aren't even touching the ball. I think he's doing a unique type of palmball changeup. It's like a circlechange/palmball. This might also explain why his changeup command is virtually non-existent (an abnormal amount of high changeups). It's rare but there have been guys historically who had larger than normal changeup differentials. Fernando Abad does.

First, define the standard of proof. Consider in life that it is very hard to know ANYTHING with 100% certainty. You may be 99.9999% sure you are a man, but you in 10 years might not be so sure. You don't need to prove it beyond a reasonable doubt. It's not a murder trial. You don't need Chapman's text to his teammates saying "I'm gonna bean Brousseau tonight". Proof on the balance of probabilities should be all that is required. Based on everything we know, is it more likely than not that it was intentional? It seems like it to me.

yikes

Apparently Robbie Ray is following Merryweather tonight. Piggy-back. I think it makes sense to piggy-back those two. Merryweather will not be stretched out this year and Ray can try to find his mechanics without having to go too many innings. You also get the RHP to LHP dynamic. Roark is by far their worst SP option. It would be s***** to see him continue to start games after Pearson comes back and for someone like Stripling to be in the pen.

I don't think they will. They have a lot of 2021 SP depth in the system.

I would like to just say that during his time with the Toronto Blue Jays I found Daniel Vogelbach to be revolting.

I don't think Alberto Rodriguez is a top 30 prospect by any measure. Might as well just be cash considerations.

I think he had minor injuries in a couple of those seasons but it was mostly the Dodgers' rotation depth.

There are all sorts of ERA estimators these days. Some use batted ball data, some don't. Different contexts call for different estimators. You're basically asking how quickly batted ball statistics stabilize for pitchers. I think it's something like 80 balls in play for GB and FB rates but a very large number for LD rates. You can also look at pitch level information though! I think Hatch's elite spin rate is a HUGE factor in favour of what he is doing.

I don't think this is fair. The summer Syndergaard turned 20 was 2012. He pitched 100 innings in Lansing that year. If there was a minor league season this year Kendall Williams would have turned 20 while at least pitching in Vancouver. I agree that Syndergaard would have looked like the better chip in context but there's no need to exaggerate.

"luck" is not just about bloopers falling in. pitcher luck can also, in small samples, be about players hitting things hard at a rate that they normally wouldn't. If a one-eyed midget hitter swung wildly ten times, in a large sample they might whiff 90% of the time. In ten swings they might hit four line drives. It's still luck. Anyway, I do think Hatch is much better than Font.

Probably do something like: - All 2020 non-playoff teams enter the lottery - 2019 and 2020 winning percentage combined. 50% weight for each season. - Weighted lottery. Draw for all picks, not just #1. - The weighting will be flatter than usual. Just slightly better odds for the the lower teams. - 2020 playoff teams just go in reverse order of final playoff standings.

Maybe it's just hard to pitch when you know your organization doesn't want you anymore. It doesn't exactly inspire confidence.

Panik hit .353/.450/.529 in the last 7 days. Dude is on fire.

Drury DFA'd party

I would bet my nuts that most of them are. Maybe not the bunting. This front office picked a pushover manager so they could run the team the way the front office wants to. It's hard to see the easy logic on some of the decisions but they are doing gory math that nobody here is smart enough to do. For the Font following Anderson thing - keep in mind that the person who revealed the "RA Dickey Effect" to the world is an analyst with the team. If he figured that out in his free time seven years ago while in college, what kind of smart s*** is he figuring out when he's getting paid to do it? It's not random that Font is following Anderson. I mean it might be, but I don't assume it is. They also have an analyst who was at the forefront of using pitch level data to estimate ERA talent. As in, if you had data from a couple of games and knew a pitcher's whiff rate, etc., you could get a better ERA estimator in a small sample than FIP or xFIP or SIERA. So many smart nerds in the front office. Any time the team acquires someone like Stripling or Chase Anderson or Hatch, I just assume they know something. Same should go for managerial decisions.

Stripling's velocity and spin are as good now as they were in prior years. He was a productive pitcher 2016 through 2019 - an above average SP by talent. This year the results are way down. I wonder if he is tipping his pitches, or something like that. Anyway, he should be worth less than he was in the offseason when him, Joc Pederson, and Andy Pages were nearly packaged for Luis Rengifo and prospect(s). We can't evaluate that failed trade because we don't know the Angels prospect(s) that would have filled it out but keep in mind that Rengifo was a controllable MIF with good projections so it's not like Stripling had low value last offseason. I am assuming Toronto has given up one prospect that people will be disappointed to see revealed. Maybe someone like Williams or Pardinho. Highly doubt it's anybody who is a slam-dunk top 10 guy though (Pardinho shouldn't be post-surgery; Williams might sneak into the top 10 on some lists). Or maybe a pair of fan favourite sleepers like Otto Lopez and Sem Robberse.

Gallo was also 19 when he was whiffing in A ball. When he was Conine's age he was already striking out in the big leagues. I think Abom's general point is correct though. Conine's Ks aren't an absolute profile ruiner. He could be something. Not Gallo, but something.

f*** that feels good

The deadline was 4 o'clock, right?

His BB rate was astronomical even when he was dominating. That always hinted at issues, I guess.

Hatch gooood.

Some of the biggest nerds on earth have been paid to look into this, with millions and millions of dollars at stake. I don't think the nerds agree with you.