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Laika

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Everything posted by Laika

  1. Laika
    Did he eat the other 1%?
  2. Laika

    Kirk

    Laika replied to Boxcar's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk

    It's okay to have super high expectations about statistical anomaly prospects like Kirk. When JPA was Kirk's age he was just getting drafted. Again, they are incomparable.
  3. Laika

    Kirk

    Laika replied to Boxcar's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk

    Aaron Cibia was a below average hitter at a few stops up the ladder and never walked. Him and Kirk really have absolutely nothing in common aside from: - Being catchers - Being Blue Jays - Having wieners? (assumptions being made)
  4. Laika
    Randal Grichuk's swing is awful. Very awkward and ugly. The opposite of athletic. It looks stiff, stupid, and over-coached.
  5. Laika

    Kirk

    Laika replied to Boxcar's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk

    I don't know how I can even watch a game caught by Danny Jansen ever again.
  6. Laika

    Kirk

    Laika replied to Boxcar's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk

    Barrel just means xBA >.500 and xSLG >1.500 Barrel rates takes 50+ PA to stabilize a bit so he's not even 1/3 of the way there. His current barrel rate means nothing. I'm guessing he's had a couple of non-barrels that just missed the xBA or xSLG cutoff. The homer last night was actually a bit of a wall scraper that wouldn't have a great xBA. Other than that, he has crushed a few balls for singles or outs that just didn't have any realistic chance of being extra base hits.
  7. Laika

    NFL Thread

    Laika replied to Dylan's topic in Other Sports

    A poster boy for bannings
  8. Laika
    Reds-Jays world series lol
  9. Laika

    Kirk

    Laika replied to Boxcar's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk

    I read like, four different "youngest catcher to do this since..." yesterday. Mauer, Pudge, some guy in 1939...
  10. Laika

    Kirk

    Laika replied to Boxcar's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk

    Low. He's smelling like roses on the MLB sniff test. Only concerns are defense + conditioning.
  11. Laika
    I guess they all qualify as "hard hit" but only one of them was barreled up. The triple had an expected BA of like .100 and the groundball double was .210.
  12. Laika
    The finals is as over as it can be after one day. BTS off to a dream start.
  13. Laika
    So Kirk is starting at least 2 of 3 playoff games right
  14. Laika
    quiet GDT, lol
  15. Laika
    Shhhh. I’m drumming up emotions on the board
  16. Laika
    And the thing last year. I don't remember the specific details but it was something like Giles being hurt, coming back, and immediately throwing back-to-backs and getting hurt again. How much possible value did Charlie Montoyo single handedly destroy in the Giles situation?
  17. Laika
    If something is worth a decent amount of specific discussion then it's thread worthy. Giles TJS might be, but it could also fit in the general thread. Shoemaker starting tonight is probably not thread worthy.
  18. Laika
    Do you wipe before you s*** or something? Run differential is a better measure of team quality than raw W-L but it doesn't get much better for you if we use actual W-L. 10 teams make the playoffs and in those 8 years we have seen teams... 1 (x2) 3 (x2) 4 5 9 10 ...win the world series. It's the same picture. A crap shoot.
  19. Laika
    Jesus mathematical Christ, your list of examples does not help your case at all. Beside the teams I've put their MLB ranking based on Pythag W-L (run differential). Giants: 94-68 -- 9th best team in baseball Red Sox: 97-65 -- 2nd best team in baseball Giants: 88-74 -- 10th best team in baseball Royals: 95-67 -- 6th best team in baseball (Toronto was #1!) Cubs: 103-58 -- best team in baseball Astros: 101-61 -- 4th best team in baseball Red Sox: 108-54 -- 2nd best team in baseball Nationals: 93-69 -- 6th best team in baseball 10 teams make the playoffs and in those 8 years we have seen teams... 1 2 (x2) 4 6 (x2) 9 10 ...win the world series. Congratulations on proving that it's a crapshoot and anybody who gets in can take the crown.
  20. Laika
    Every team in the playoffs has a realistic chance. Blake Snell could lay an egg. Shane Bieber could break his tibia in the Wild Card round. Trevor Bauer could slice his finger open fiddling with a drone. Gerrit Cole could get Covid19. Vladimir Guerrero Jr could click. If talent was equal across all 16 teams then each has a 6.25% chance of taking it all. Talent is only moving that chance by maybe 4 points in either direction. Every team has a "realistic chance."
  21. Laika
    It's not all about GB rate. Soto ranks very high in barrel% (made up statcast statistic). I think the main reason for that is Soto is a smarter, more patient hitter. Vlad is too antsy and he swings too much. It's about patience and pitch identification. It's learnable, of course. Career stats Soto: 39.6% swing rate, 18.9% chase rate, 11.7% barrel rate Vlad: 46.9% swing rate, 27.3% chase rate, 8.1% barrel rate This is actually a positive comparison. It shows that Vlad does NOT need to necessarily change in a dramatic way when it comes to groundball/flyball ratio. Basically, we won't care about a large number of hard groundballs if he can just get a bit more selective and give us some more barrels, baby. When it comes to power hitters, sometimes all they really need to do is sprinkle in a few more dingers. What is Teoscar Hernandez doing notable different this year other than barreling up a few more baseballs? Not much, as far as I can tell.
  22. Laika
    No need to be stupidly absolutist just because they are in a bad stretch. They've already showed this year that they would have a puncher's chance. Against playoff teams: First series vs TBR: 1-2 with a walk off loss Second series vs TBR: 1-2 with a one run loss and a two run loss Third series vs TBR: 2-2 with a walk off loss and a one run loss First series vs ATL: 1-2 with a walk off loss First series vs NYY: 2-1 Vs Miami overall: 2-2 Vs Philadelphia overall: 3-3 You can't convince me that they would have NO chance against a good opponent. Other than the recent sweep at the hands of the Yankees they've been competitive against every playoff team, generally speaking. Baseball is random enough to give me a modicum of hope. I think they have a 2-3% chance of taking it all!
  23. Laika
    Not a juicer but more of a pharma zombie. Probably ran on cocktails of custom amphetamines and pain killers his whole career. I have zero actual evidence but if you are part of QAnon at all you would know.
  24. Laika
    I agree that Toronto's chances are very low this year. They just aren't built for the playoffs. Too much has to go right. BUT! It takes 162 games to properly separate the wheat from the chaff. It's silly to think that a maximum of 22 playoff games can do anywhere close to the same thing. The Reds might be the perfect example this year. A super mediocre team, probably not a playoff team in a normal season, but if they get in this year then their SP 1-3 (Bauer, Castillo, Gray) line up with any other team's and they have a coin flip's chance or better in most series.
  25. Laika
    A team doesn't even have to get THAT hot to win it all. Theoretically, winning 13 of 22 games can bring someone the title. I don't think the no off day change has any type of systematic effect that makes worse teams less likely to win. Certain good teams have thin rotations, too. And certain mediocre teams like the .500 Astros have deep rotations 1-5. The blueprint for a lucky champion is basically the same. 1) Ryu needs to be perfect 2) some other SP needs to really step up and overperform 3) the bullpen needs to be solid 4) the bats probably need to win a game themselves every series. just beat up on an SP3 or hit some clutch dingers off an Ace.
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