Laika

Prob not but a good lightning in a bottle candidate. The guy has good stuff and has been very good before

The stalled development of their pitching prospects has been a bit painful. Anderson worked out and there is Fried, but a lot of corpses and question marks after them. Soroka, Davidson, Toussaint, Muller, Wilson, Wright, Newcomb, Ynoa... lots of failures to launch or stay healthy so far.

Holy f***. Poor guy

.426 BABIP with only a .155 ISO and one lonely dinger. 98% chance it's just a BABIP surge but I know his name now so he's accomplished something. disclaimer - I am wrong most of the time

Minor league rule 5 pick so he's probably nothing. Fangraphs had him in the honourable mentions section of their Mets lists last two years. Espino is a contact-oriented shortstop who lacks bat control when he takes big hacks, and bat speed when he’s under control.

You're likely not doing better for Votto. Alcantara is a legit lotto ticket.

Teams would all have their own, in house versions of total value. I bet none of them are the same as fWAR, for pitchers.

average K rate with low power = nothing special. most prospects with this combo will fail to hit MLB pitching. generational contact rate = special itself. the player may be able to hit MLB pitching well even with zero pop to speak of. elite power = special itself. most prospects will still fail, but you'll get the odd Joey Gallo who will hit just enough to be good. combine elite power with contact skills = Vlad. Madrigal is like, the universal opposite of Joey Gallo, I guess. Otto Lopez is just like dozens of other current minor leaguers, in various organizations. Everybody has a few scrappy little hitters. Gamers. Etc. Can hit a bit and play some D.

Willians Astudillo

Now do every other stat, including contact rate. There are a good number of high average, low power hitters in the minors. Only a select few have borderline generational contact ability like Madrigal.

It's proprietary. If you subscribe to my newsletter for $50 USD / month I'll give you access to the Discord

Luis Arraez might be the closest thing.

Why is there this persistent fantasy where the Blue Jays can somehow get rid of Randal Grichuk? He could be swapped for a bad contract but that's about it. Nobody wants him. Gurriel is rapidly setting his trade value on fire as well. Sadly.

Sellers: Orioles Tigers Twins Royals Mariners Rangers Marlins Pirates Diamondbacks Rockies Might be sellers: Angels Braves Phillies Nationals Reds Cardinals

Doesn't look like the Nats will sell. They are 3.5 games back and chasing the f***ing Mets. I wouldn't sell.

I'm not sure Bo Bichette was quite in the untouchable category. Close to it, sure, but maybe more of the "it's hard to imagine a trade where we would give him up" category. I also can't realistically imagine them dealing Austin Martin, but I can kind of imagine it. What if say the Marlins offered like, a healthy Sixto Sanchez + Anthony Bender? Or something like that. Pick your favourite elite young pitcher and add one of his teams' best current MLB relief pitchers on top.

Martin for Scherzer and Schwarber would be a pretty bad trade. Two rentals making big money. Could get them with lesser prospects, if they end up being available. Or you could get more for Martin (several years of a younger front end pitcher, for example).

Twins are the target team. Rogers, Berrios, Maeda, maybe Pineda or Stashak. Cruz would make the lineup hilarious. It would be the best 1 to 6 in baseball history.

Yes, they all are

That's not a good look. I wouldn't buy that for $1

Maybe they mean 4th opinion this entire season.

Yeah if Mejia was a solid defender the bat probably would have been fine, at least at some point. Mediocre offensive projections at this point due to extended mediocre MLB production, but still looks good for a wRC+ between 90 and 100. Note - Steamer ROS has Gabriel Moreno as a 100 wRC+ hitter!!!

He mostly flopped on defense. Offensive projection for 2018 was a 80 wRC+, which is actually quite good for a catching prospect of that age. He never profiled (statistically) as an otherwordly bat or a player that would get amazing projections. He looked like a stud because of age + position + hit tool but you need to do it all statistically to like, project to be an above average MLB hitter. It's possible that scouts severely overrated him in part because of hit tool bias. A great hit tool can be not that useful if the player swings at f***ing everything.

The projection systems are a representation of how much the inputs matter. I mean, it's common sense. - more data is better than less - more recent data is better than older data The ideal prospect has great recent data and a track record of good data over time The worst prospects suck now and sucked before The tough calls are the guys with a solid track record but bad recent performance, or vice versa Getting the "tough calls" right separates the Rays front office from the Rockies/DBacks/Pirates/Tigers/Orioles. What the data is specifically also matters. When it comes to recognizing breakouts or declines, teams will want to look at indicators and not really results. They care about bat speed, velocity, exit velocity (max and average), spin rates, contact rates... they don't care that much about results. Projection systems are incorporating some of this data as it seeps into the public sphere. Half a season of massively increased contact and max EV might mean more than four prior years of mediocrity. No matter how you slice up Samad Taylor, he's a "tough call" And by the way, there's no need to dress down what Mejia did in the minors with language like that. The kid hit for average and power, without striking out, and with very good age vs. level figures. He was a statistical stud. These are the indicators that matter the most in the minors: age vs. level, ISO, BB and K rates, contact rates (which are obviously heavily correlated to K rates), and place on the defensive spectrum. The worst things you could have said about Mejia as a prospect were: the BB rate was just average, the ISO was only above average, and catchers have a precarious place on the defensive spectrum. He had a precious ability to make contact and get hits at a very young age, relative to his peers.