Laika

Jays +3 games on BOS and NYY with 18 games remaining for TOR and NYY and 16 for BOS Tie breaker makes that a +4 lead and BOS/NYY need to pass Toronto. .500 from here has TOR with 92 wins so NYY needs to go 13-5 to flip, BOS needs to go 12-4.... very unlikely to flip 10-8 has TOR with 93 wins. NYY and BOS need to go 14-4 or 13-3... almost insurmountable And BOS and NYY have a 3 game series between each other starting Friday so there are three guaranteed losses being allocated to them. Fangraphs now projects 93 wins for Toronto. The 74.4% and 73.8% odds for winning the division and clinching a bye seem a bit light to me. They have become, essentially, the same question because NYY and BOS are more likely to be the 2nd best division winner than Houston or some other AL West team. Toronto just needs to *not collapse* and the division and bye are theirs. Boston remaining games: ATH x4 (cake) NYY x3 (battle) TBR x3 (not cake) TOR x3 (battle) DET x3 (not cake, DET might rest guys, but still might face Skubal) Yankees remaining games: DET x2 (battle) BOS x3 (battle) MIN x3 (cake... but could get shut down my Zebby or Taj Bradley I guess) BAL x3 (not cake... they could have to face Rogers and Bradish) CHW x3 (cake) BAL x3 (not cake) Can definitely see NYY going 12-6 and BOS going 11-5 or something but hard to see either team doing better than that or running the table.

Caleb Joseph was all over Altuve on the post game. Said he watched the replays on the Vlad throw and Altuve wasn't even running for his first 10 steps. Completely dogging it! Unforgivable!!! And then on the Vlad hustle grounder, Altuve cut off Pena and was late on the throw. Maybe trying to make up for his baserunning blunder. Should have let the shortstop take it. Unforgivable!!!!!!!

Astros are apparently 23-32 in their last 55 games so Toronto is getting them at a good time. A real swoon. I had no real idea until I went to an Astros message board as midnight for fap material and saw that factoid. Gotta win this series and just keep winning series. Sweeps are fun but not required. Just do business from here on.

Funny that is was Vlad vs. Altuve on both of those plays Youth vs. Geezer Altuve looked tired and washed up in both instances

Their bullpen is GASSED. Six RP used last night and three of them (Abreu, King, Blubaugh) are not going to be available. Maybe King I guess if they are desperate. ASTROS BULLPEN 09-10-2025 Steven Okert - crafty lefty closer who threw 17 P last night Craig Kimbrel - Mr. should have retired could throw back to back and for the 5th time in 7 games because f*** it he's old Enyel De Los Santos - DFAd by the Braves this year and sucked last night but could throw again, back to back and for the 4th time in 7 games Jayden Murray - 28 year old with 2 MLB innings (to be honest, might be their setup man tonight) Lance McCullers - is he a long man? What is he? JP France - same question. He was getting nuked in AAA. If the Jays can get Alexander out early, he and his 5.05 FIP, then they are probably just feasting on France/McCullers. Tasty.

The Astros' lineup is pretty meh. You need to get around Yordan but there is nothing else too scary in there. Altuve and Correa are not who they once were. Pena is overperforming. The other players are just league average kind of hitters. Berrios can definitely get through this with an ugly quality start.

Paid his dues in Pittsburgh and was even lucky enough to not get stabbed by Tommy Pham My man Isaiah

Jomboy has been saying the same thing for months

Not sports cards But, found a tin of 30 year old magic cards in my parents' attic and some of these things are worth $100 each lol. For lightly played cards. Crazy.

Yeah huge night for the pen. Maybe the pen has turned a corner. Although Little did miss the zone a lot and Walker bailed him out on that strikeout swing lol

Dude has cancer he's decided to just speak facts from now on

Such a nice feeling, momentum back after those two tough losses in New York

I apologize to IKF!!! He can stay forever!

Dammit. Losing Bo during this stretch is a significant hit. I hope that doesn't mean IKF is a starter. Against RHP they can start Loperfido and Barger (3B) and put Clement at SS. Which is what is happening tonight. I'll throw up if IKF starts 7 of the next 9 or whatever. Only bright side is this might be a defensive upgrade short term since Clement is >>> Bo at SS.

it's the uncrustables

No doubt he has been a great addition, but probably not some godsend? Vlad - very close to career norms, no improvement Kirk - is this just regression? Bo - just healthy. Ernie - exactly who he has been with Toronto, the whole tenure Gimenez - flop. Barger - tale of two halves at this point. Maybe people were celebrating his breakout too soon. Heineman, Loperfido - BABIP says hi That leaves Springer, Varsho, Straw, Lukes, Schneider I don't know how much credit you give him for each of these guys. Springer is a grizzled veteran. Varsho is 28/29 and at the peak of his physical prime. Like, people are probably overrating Popkins right now because of the team results (over-attribution error) and there were probably making the same mistake in the other direction for Guillermo Martinez before. I am mostly pleased by the reports of the Trajekt and iPitch machines and Popkins wanting and implementing those. So not so much the results this year but just the information supporting the idea that the Jays are finally not behind the times on offensive game prep, which you can thank Popkins for at least in part.

Berrios vs Luis Garcia (velo down, 90 poo now, 92 Stuff+ in his one game back from TJS) Bieber vs Jason Alexander (5.05 FIP throws 90 poo) Gausman vs Cristian Javier (5.36 xFIP can't throw strikes) Bassitt vs Dietrich Enns (bullpen game) Scherzer vs Trevor Rogers (really good now but LHP) Berrios vs Tomoyuki Sugano (5.12 FIP and 5.71 xERA) All home games 5 of 6 should be the EXPECTATION. Dodging Brown, Framber, and Bradish.

Heat map seems to indicate he is more middle-middle in general Career he tended to be more bottom corner Interesting article from April: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/tanner-scott-or-an-impostor-whos-stolen-his-identity-is-throwing-a-ton-of-strikes/

Bassitt is my playoff #3 over Scherzer. Sorry, Max.

Any Jays OF would run through the wall to try and catch that HR off Yamamoto Maybe that's why the Dodgers are underperforming? Bit of a divided clubhouse, top many individuals not as much of a team unit

Astros are apparently moving Framber up to start tomorrow That means Toronto dodges Brown and Framber and instead will face Luis Garcia, Jason Alexander, and Javier. Unless they move Brown up for that last game on normal rest.

I have to assume Varland is tipping his pitches. Actually seems like the most likely explanation.

🙌

Or he broke his leg

The amazing this is that Cam Schlittler didn't even look bad. I mean he looked great for most of this. Nasty stuff and he threw strikes. The Jays just game planned him perfectly and spoiled so many good pitches. Like how many 99mph heaters just above the zone did they foul off?