Laika

Yeah if Mejia was a solid defender the bat probably would have been fine, at least at some point. Mediocre offensive projections at this point due to extended mediocre MLB production, but still looks good for a wRC+ between 90 and 100. Note - Steamer ROS has Gabriel Moreno as a 100 wRC+ hitter!!!

He mostly flopped on defense. Offensive projection for 2018 was a 80 wRC+, which is actually quite good for a catching prospect of that age. He never profiled (statistically) as an otherwordly bat or a player that would get amazing projections. He looked like a stud because of age + position + hit tool but you need to do it all statistically to like, project to be an above average MLB hitter. It's possible that scouts severely overrated him in part because of hit tool bias. A great hit tool can be not that useful if the player swings at f***ing everything.

The projection systems are a representation of how much the inputs matter. I mean, it's common sense. - more data is better than less - more recent data is better than older data The ideal prospect has great recent data and a track record of good data over time The worst prospects suck now and sucked before The tough calls are the guys with a solid track record but bad recent performance, or vice versa Getting the "tough calls" right separates the Rays front office from the Rockies/DBacks/Pirates/Tigers/Orioles. What the data is specifically also matters. When it comes to recognizing breakouts or declines, teams will want to look at indicators and not really results. They care about bat speed, velocity, exit velocity (max and average), spin rates, contact rates... they don't care that much about results. Projection systems are incorporating some of this data as it seeps into the public sphere. Half a season of massively increased contact and max EV might mean more than four prior years of mediocrity. No matter how you slice up Samad Taylor, he's a "tough call" And by the way, there's no need to dress down what Mejia did in the minors with language like that. The kid hit for average and power, without striking out, and with very good age vs. level figures. He was a statistical stud. These are the indicators that matter the most in the minors: age vs. level, ISO, BB and K rates, contact rates (which are obviously heavily correlated to K rates), and place on the defensive spectrum. The worst things you could have said about Mejia as a prospect were: the BB rate was just average, the ISO was only above average, and catchers have a precarious place on the defensive spectrum. He had a precious ability to make contact and get hits at a very young age, relative to his peers.

And Sixto hasn't even pitched this year

Clevinger has had one healthy season and he will be 31 when he comes back. Lots of upside. It's not that I don't like him, I'd just rather have the names ahead of him in a keep 20 league. Sounds like he could be a big trade chip for you, if Strasburg was that popular.

I agree with all of this. But the truly athletic, two-way, do it all catchers might as well go into the same tier as the Captain Americas. Sometimes those guys get overrated due to intangibles, or non-existent traits. Matt Wieters being the everlasting example. Really curious to see where Moreno lands on the midseason top 100s. He has to be a 60 FV which will make him top 25, and you can make a top 10 case if you look at some of the names he is competing against.

I agree with all of this. But the truly athletic, two-way, do it all catchers might as well go into the same tier as the Captain Americas. Sometimes those guys get overrated due to intangibles, or non-existent traits. Matt Wieters being the everlasting example. Really curious to see where Moreno lands on the midseason top 100s. He has to be a 60 FV which will make him top 25, and you can make a top 10 case if you look at some of the names he is competing against.

Not really. Mostly we are just happy that the incompetent and inexperienced GM who set assets like them on fire is gone.

Yeah but evaluators were slapping 70 hit and 80 arm grades on him. He was top 20 on every major list at some point and I think top 10 on a few. Almost as good as it gets for a C prospect.

And especially catchers and pitchers

yeah they both blow. it's just shocking that Jansen is probably the better defender and Reese might actually, somehow, be a slightly better hitter. the exact opposite of how they profiled

Yeah but even those reports would have defined the "surprising" power as a 40 or 45 grade tool. He's hitting like a guy with 70+ pop right now! Leads the damn AANE in dingers and has a higher ISO than guys like Oneil Cruz, Riley Greene, and even super elite prospect Gabriel Moreno. It's kind of nuts when you think about it. I almost wonder if there is something funny going on in New Hampshire.... lol

Post was bait. Reese blows

When a player like Taylor combines mediocre ISO with low AVG and low BABIP in the minors, I tend to assume that they don't hit the ball hard. That may not be true all of the time. What evidently has happened with Samad Taylor is that he had pool noodle IN GAME power, most of the time, but he had okay RAW POWER that was just rarely showing up in games. Probably because of an underdeveloped hit tool.

Reese McGuire MLB batting average by season: 2018 - .290 2019 - .299 2020 - .077 2021 - .290

That package is pretty bonkers. Might be tough to actually get a player good enough for all of that.

Both potential studs, can't go wrong, I'd take Marte. More dynamic and more room for error. Could be a top 10 prospect. Gabriel Moreno would go after McClanahan but above Lowe. Somewhere in there.

He had pool noodle power in previous years so this is borderline shocking to see.

Guerrero Franco Bieber Torkelson Kelenic Alvarez Carlson Semien Peralta May McCullers Abrams Brujan Adell McClanahan Suarez (assuming Euginio?) Murphy Pearson Meyer Manning Clevinger Lowe Strasburg Corbin Heaney Woods Richardson Alek Thomas? Bart Verlander Stripling Hancock There is my incredibly rough, one minute ranking of your players. The bolded names count up to 20. In deep keeper leagues with a specific keeper amount, you need to tailor everything to optimize your top 20 through the cutdown. Yes, you probably should trade some of these older guys if you can, but the ultimate goal needs to be consolidating multiple pieces into clear keeper upgrades. Strasburg for Grayson + Patino + Casas would be a f***ing steal and you should do it immediately, but then you still have work to do because you may not be able to fit Casas into your top 20. You should try to do your own 2-for-1 and 3-for-1 trades to push every bit of value you can into your top 20. Package Clevinger with two good prospects you don't love (say Joey Bart and Nate Pearson) for one rock solid keeper, for example. Identify the prospects you could live without and try to package them up for young core players. You could compete as soon as 2022 if you can convert some of those flimsy prospects into bankable production, because your nucleus seems very good.

1000% Franco will outperform him ROS

Lopez really chops at the ball - practically swings down at it. He does not try to hit for power from what I've seen.

One of the most common reasons a prospect will fail is an inability to make contact. If you can put the bat on the ball you have a chance. Lopez isn't very similar to Espinal. Better offensive tools across the board but worse defense, apparently. Lopez' ceiling might be more like Marwin Gonzalez.

5 team games he just has one start pushed back a day, basically they might be appealing just to line up the start of his 5 game suspension in a strategic way

That's one game without Montoyo and Manoah only has a start pushed back a day. So a net win.

Greg Polanco dropped. Sad. I'm not touching him