Laika

For all we know Ted Williams was on speed and experimental US GOV drugs his entire career

Winker and then delete her number

that's pretty crazy and explains why Romano seemed juuuuuuust a bit off for parts of the year

yeah exactly

Batters getting in shape is also very different than pitchers getting in shape. Pitching is so much about balance, consistency, and rhythm. If you change your weight and physique drastically, even if for the better, it can realistically throw all that stuff out of whack. I think that's why you don't see a lot of chubby pitchers with success on their resume trying to change their physique like that.

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Also grant is on my team and connorp is neutral but wants to see me fail more than anything

Boogers side.

Yes but only Jim and connorp are allowed to talk politics and we can put an end to it whenever we want. have fun. you guys can even make your own thread, "jim and connorps's political bants", if you want.

The dream: Freddie Freeman, Yusei Kikuchi or Zack Greinke, and Collin McHugh (all of the FA relievers kind of suck, wow) More realistic: Kyle Seager (one year), Drew Smyly, and Collin McHugh (all of the FA relievers kind of suck, wow)

It's not JUST a gut feel thing. From watching them play, I guess the most specific thing I could say is that I think there is a subjective luck component for Espinal's MLB data that is tricking Steamer. I would not be shocked if the other projection systems show bigger differences between the two players.

Sort of. Teams have more sophisticated measurements and projections than Steamer. It's not like Steamer has solved baseball projections and front offices aren't needed anymore.

You need to adjust your lens for everything. Think in terms of normal distributions / standard deviations, probabilistic outcomes, and bayesian methods. The bayesian part is what a lot of public saber people can struggle with, I think.

87.9 is 263rd out of 404 we are talking about 35th percentile vs 4th percentile, Jim. It's like, an entire standard deviation of difference on a normal distribution. So it's not just "a bit different".

so far so good here. he was a ball placement artist in 2021. it was beautiful.

Average exit velocity was 390th out of 404 hitters to have at least 100 batted ball events. His floor is pretty bad. Like, not in the MLB. Many pitchers hit the ball with more authority.

When you see something like Steamer projecting a 91 wRC+ for Espinal and 90 wRC+ for Wendle... ...you have to understand that EVEN IF you accept those mean projections as sensible, they don't say much about the error bars, or the range of outcomes. If we apply some common sense, you can all acknowledge that Santiago Espinal basically has s***** Ryan Goins downside. It is entirely possible that his offense in 2021 was a complete mirage; pure BABIP luck. To wit, his wRC+ and BABIP in 2021 in the MLB were both higher than his recent MiLB seasons, and we are talking about a small MLB sample size. He does not hit the ball hard. How many of his hits in 2021 were borderline bloops that just died in between the infield and outfield? So Espinal's, say, 10th percentile outcome is "below replacement level" and his 30th percentile outcome might even be something like "replacement level 70 wRC+ hitter". Compare to Wendle who has 1600 MLB PA and has never been a bad player. Wendle might actually have a decent chance to be replacement level or better, and his downside risks are not anywhere close to Espinal's. I suppose that Steamer is down on Wendle's bat because of age and 2021 K rate? It seems weird though that it even projects him for such a low mark. Some might reply that Espinal's 95th percentile outcome is better than Wendle's. Perhaps Espinal in a best case scenario is a defensive wizard with a sneaky good hit tool, like a poor team's Andrelton Simmons. I guess I could buy that argument even if it's fanciful.

I don't think they are that similar. Wendle is better. I don't believe in Espinal's stick at all.

He would be awesome.

Ray basically got the same $$$ and term as Gausman. But I guess Gausman + the comp pick is the better way to go. In terms of "value".

I'm not a huge Riley Greene fan but would still take that side. Marsh is a bust probably. Garcia good but he's a pitcher. Could probably trade Greene right away for a better MLB piece than Garcia.

No. Why would it be counterproductive?

The components are just so glaringly obvious that it's almost comical there is a debate. This guy has been on my fantasy baseball radar for years now because of the extremely good K/BB skills. He has produced as a good reliever in various stretches in his career. His velocity has trended UP over his career and seems to have taken a huge leap up in 2021. You'd thinking Toronto was paying him a $14M AAV based on the debate in here. $5.5M is precisely "perfectly cromulent middle reliever from free agency" money. Just because Shatkins CAN sign veterans to MiLB deals and milk production out of them does not mean they SHOULD do that. It's $5.5M bucks - that's gum on Ed Rogers' shoe.

Yimi Garcia 241 career games 3 walk games - 2 2 walk games - 5 1 walk games - 37 0 walk games - 197 Nearly an 82% chance to walk nobody in a given appearance. Seems enjoyable.

My thoughts exactly. How nice is that to read, after years of Toronto having to overpay everyone. Also f*** the Mets.