Laika

Have you considered making better posts?

Springer - DH Marte - 2B Vlad - 1B Bo - 3B Barger - RF Kirk - C Varsho - CF Santander - LF Gimenez/Clement - SS BN - Lukes, Heiny, Straw, Clement/Gimenez Why not?

Dick Fitts = Jake Bloss sans TJS

Sonny Gray now gets $41M guaranteed for 2026. That's wild. Good trade for both teams, I guess. Gray has surplus value projected above the $21M Boston will pay him.

Bloss's stuff has not always been as good as it seems or as the scouting reports seem to indicate. During his Astros MLB sample the grades on ALL of his pitches were a bit below average by Stuff+. I think some other Stuff measurements did have the FB as a bit above average. His velo seemed to be up noticeably with Toronto in spring but he then got nuked in AAA and hurt. I think you can tell from his lack of minor league Ks at the upper levels, and getting hit around in MLB and AAA, that the Stuff needed lots of work. I think if he comes back from TJS and his pitches are more like his 2024 Astros versions, he's just a boring SP5, almost like Mitch White before he collapsed as a player. Low upside depth guy who might be able to finesse his way into bulk value. Never a playoff starter. If he comes back from TJS and the arsenal is a bit better (like it looked in spring) then there might be a more interesting pitcher there, maybe an SP4.

They projected as a fringe playoff team and he gave them 0.4 WAR, I think they were hoping to get 2 WAR and he might be a standings difference maker. That he ended up providing two good playoff starts is random dumb luck but yes it had value so in a sense it kind of worked out. And every other SP in the bucket last offseason other than JV was a total flop. Morton, Cobb, Buehler... Sugano... just looking at the 1 year geezers who got around $15M.

I don't think the Blue Jays front office is looking to re-roll on the Max Scherzer experience I mean the signing was an unmitigated disaster and complete waste of $15M until he made two extremely lucky miracle playoff starts, lol

I really like Imai but can a team have too many splitters? If you face Gausman, Yesavage, Imai in a row do you get used to the pitch? Maybe the completely different arm action would help. He throws from such a low slot, like 20 degrees. And his slider does the SAME weird s*** as Yesavage's where it doesn't move glove side. But from the opposite end of the release point spectrum. I would love to see them in the same rotation just for Weird Baseball reasons.

Recalculated after a trade apparently. I have never heard this before but it was in the Nimmo/Semien MLBTR article. " Since luxury tax figures are re-calculated to account for just remaining money owed in the wake of trades, Semien’s tax number is $24MM, and Nimmo has a $19.25MM figure (when factoring in the $5MM Texas is getting from New York)."

The Nimmo for Semien swap makes me think a Berrios trade could be possible 3/$68.1 is gross for Berrios Benintendi? Tyler O'Neill? Yoshida? Javy Baez (2/$48M)? Rendon? Kikuchi? Soler? Sean Manaea? Bryan Reynolds? Yu Darvish? Jake Cronenworth? Arenado? Most of these make no sense. Just rattling off some bad contracts. If some other team values Berrios' innings and thinks he's a 1.5 WAR pitcher there might be some fit. But the Blue Jays may have floored any possibility of a deal with the phantom IL stint.

I am thinking about this Nimmo deal and I don't get it for Texas very much at all Nimmo is 33 and has gone 2.8 and 3.0 WAR last two years and projects for 2.5 Semien is 35 and has gone 4.3 and 2.1 WAR last two years and projects for 3.0 Semien being owed 26, 26, 20 vs Nimmo being owed 20.5 for 5 years --> I think I'd rather just keep the guy with only three years left committed. I actually have Semien being worth a bit of surplus vs Nimmo being a negative if you use FGDC projections (see chart). Of course, if you think the projections are wrong and start Nimmo at 3.0 and Semien at 2.5 this flips around and Nimmo becomes a +12M surplus and Semien becomes a -4M. Both seem like the kind of guys you just go year to year with on expectations, they could be replacement level talents tomorrow if something falls apart. Semien was a +7 2B last year while Nimmo was a neutral corner outfielder. Player A Player B YEAR AGE PROJ WAR $/WAR PROJ VALUE SALARY SURPLUS VALUE YEAR AGE PROJ WAR $/WAR PROJ VALUE SALARY SURPLUS VALUE 2026 32 2.5 11 27.5 20.5 7 2026 35 3 11 33 26 7 2027 33 2 11.33 22.66 20.5 2.16 2027 36 2.5 11.33 28.325 26 2.325 2028 34 1.5 11.6699 17.50485 20.5 -2.99515 2028 37 2 11.6699 23.3398 20 3.3398 2029 35 1 12.02 12.019997 20.5 -8.480003 2030 36 0.5 12.3806 6.190298455 20.5 -14.30970155 SUMS -16.62485455 12.6648

Fun baseball trade. I like both players quite a bit, just solid f***ing baseball players

Set sights higher Verlander is a last resort guy for me. End of the off-season and missed out on others... fine.

Happens on the time with fringe guys

Manoah might be a good fit for the Rockies Or the Savannah Bananas Not sure about anyone else I guess he has the body type for the Mexican League

Frasso and Manoah non tendered. I am euphoric.

Bellinger 3.0 fWAR projection by FGDC Lukes 1.6 in 107 games Schneider 0.8 WAR pro-rated to 55 games A Lukes/Schneider platoon should be about 2.4 WAR and they both cost the league minimum. So, Bellinger isn't worth the money UNLESS you are giving up on Santander in which case LMAO but I guess it makes sense by WAR and projections, because Santander blows and is cooked

I am sure Tango thought of everything Maybe there is in fact not *much* variance within a player's top 90% fastest swings, or the variance looks about the same player to player. I think it makes sense that most players are executing their quickest swings, most of the time. Even defensive hacks they are waiting then swinging fast. Probably not comparable to sprint speed measurement as there is lots of meaningless jogging in baseball

Bo does have a bit more bat speed than his avg bat speed tells you. His Fast Swing % was 42nd percentile in 2023 (vs like 22nd for his avg bat speed). The difference was less pronounced in 2025 but still there. I don't think I have ever seen "max bat speed" data. I think all of the bat tracking stuff uses the player's top 90% swings by bat speed, so they throw out all the weird junk swings at the slow end. It would be interesting to see something like... MAX BAT SPEED which ignored the 5 hardest swings (noise?) but then averages the next ten fastest swings. There are probably a handful of players who have above average bat speed ability they just choose to not swing like that most of the time.

smart front office stays smart trust the process

Freddie Freeman also has a slow bat There are exceptions to every rule

Witt hit the ball hard and had elite legs. That let him overcome not walking almost ever and having a horrible chase rate. Holliday has better plate discipline and walk rates but hits the ball like an old Ty France. They aren't really comparable. Witt was a SS demonstrating elite tools and deficiencies in things that can sometimes be improved (plate discipline). It's not an instructive comp. I don't really know how to find good 21 year old comps for Holliday because how many 21 year olds get full MLB seasons and have 25th percentile bat speed? Probably not many. What was the bat speed on Addison Russell or Nomar Mazara? Holliday has paths to being good but with 25th percentile bat speed and bad defense so far, and 25th percentile Launch Angle Sweet Spot (launch angle optimization, basically) I am not sure I like his odds. If he cuts his K % in half he could be Jeff McNeil. Is he Jake Cronenworth? These are good players. If he becomes a Launch Angle Sweet Spot savant in the offseason he could even be Jonathan Aranda. Improved defense + hitting like that and he's a star. Tough.

The Blue Jays are the Price Enforcement Champs so maybe they are after Bellinger just to make someone else pay more. Always possible.

Witt was twice as good by WAR and showed way more explosive tools Witt 2021 --> 100th percentile sprint speed and baserunning value, 75th percentile arm, 69th percentile xSLG and 65th percentile Avg Exit Velo, upper tier bat speed Holliday --> 25th percentile bat speed :( , 26th percentile arm strength :( , 5th percentile range , somehow 8th percentile baserunning against 82nd percentile sprint speed to he's a dumb baserunner All Holliday has shown is a decent approach (chase and squared up type stats). I think he could still be a 4 WAR player or something like that in some years. Lots of work to do though.