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Laika

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Everything posted by Laika

  1. Laika
    I can't imagine the Giants selling. The deadline is in one week.
  2. Laika
    I don't know exactly but I would presume it has something to do with injury monitoring or prevention
  3. Laika
    I've talked to people who work for teams and this is true. They all have limited manpower since most of the budget is on the field. The draft and the trade deadline are big, big events. They compete for bandwidth and I bet tons of trade talks just don't even really pick up until the draft is over and most player signings are done.
  4. Laika
    Raimel Tapia above replacement level above average wRC+ 81st percentile max EV (previous seasons: 37, 36, 26, 50, 42, and 70).
  5. Laika
    I think it has more to do with the mild shoulder discomfort he felt after his last outing.
  6. Laika
    It makes me extremely happy to know that you are upset. Thank you. I'll continue to be the best and most popular moderator, living rent free in your head all day every day and ruining your online experience.
  7. Laika
    There are no deleted posts. Are you high?
  8. Laika
    He doesn't have to be the most extreme example possible (Gallo) to be an extreme flyball hitter. He is 6th in the NE league out of 72 qualified hitters. In flyball%. His A+ sample in 2021 he ranked 2nd out of 97 hitters with at least 100 PA. He undoubtedly hits an extreme amount of flyballs. Volpe has issues too, they just aren't as bad for him, perhaps, because he doesn't whiff as much. But he does not look like a high AVG hitter in MLB to me without an adjustment.
  9. Laika
    Well the swing problems are evident from the data. You don't hit an extreme amount of flyballs because you are getting fooled by breaking balls. I am not sure on pitch recognition, you'd have to go to the scouting reports. With a 30% K rate in AA you would assume some level of pitch recognition issues but he's young so it might not be fatal. I keep thinking of Matt Chapman at the plate for Orelvis' positive outcome. Maybe even a more extreme version, more raw power. If he has a gross uppercut swing maybe he's also getting cheesed by high fastballs? So yeah odds are he has two issues. Maybe he gets a mulligan for another year on the contact stuff though and maybe he can level out the swing just a bit.
  10. Laika
    No you still don't get it We are not comparing specific players My point is that 50%+ FB rates = low BABIP. I am pulling that point from *all of baseball* and applying it to Orelvis. There might be freak of nature exceptions but the trend is very obvious. We don't really care about what Orelvis did back in the low, low minors. That has little meaning anymore. Here is everyone qualified since 2000. Very clear that high FB% = low BABIP. Like, the effect is so strong that with a FB rate of 50%+ you essentially cannot find a hitter with a BABIP that is even above average. With the batted ball approach that Orelvis Martinez has demonstrated ever since A+ it will be very, very hard according to *all of the information in the history of baseball* for him to hit for average. To wit, Steamer now projects him to hit .218 with a .253 BABIP. The problem is made worse by his contact rates which don't look great either. The good news is that with his power and possible defensive utility he only needs to improve this s*** incrementally to be decent. He could hit .240 and be good.
  11. Laika
    Nobody likes you. I didn't delete anything, lol
  12. Laika
    My response was not personal man. Your way of looking at it was just not optimal and too apologetic.
  13. Laika
    @dagagad we made the decision a while ago to outright ban political discussions/posts because over years it became clear that they were unproductive, just lead to animosity and personal feuds between posters, and they distracted from valuable baseball discussion. I am not sure if the board has been BETTER since the rule changes but it certainly is not worse. Although, people are morons and they still find reasons to have little spats. Like as you can see here they will get into little micro political fights about the tilt of moderation or whether or not certain posts require moderation. Absolute bitches.
  14. Laika
    I am deleting everything that even vaguely references or touches upon this line of discussion shut the f*** up
  15. Laika
    You started it tonight. You are on ban watch
  16. Laika
    I f***ing hate all of you losers
  17. Laika
    This is not how you go about this type of data analysis Look at extreme fly ball hitters over large sample sizes. The effect is clear. Joey Gallo being the obvious example. .260 career BABIP despite being fast and hitting the ball hard as f***. These afflicted players can still have extremely good seasons, through variance. Yeah Martinez' .216 BABIP might be partially bad luck but the story is the same this season whether he's hitting .199 or .235, really. Either way he looks like a guy with an approach and contact issues that MLB pitchers can PROBABLY exploit to the point of failure. Unless he makes a big change. Also, completely different consideration with Volpe. His statistical context is not the same. You can say with Volpe that if he had a better trajectory on his batted balls he'd be a f***ing .300/.400/.500 hitter. I mean he has the K-BB and power skills to hit .300 and BABIP .320 in the minors, clearly. So yeah you've identified Volpe's problem; the reason he has a 122 wRC+ and not a 150.
  18. Laika
    Nah man it's the shape of his swing. Unfortunately. The K's are somewhat related to that too. He must have a massive uppercut. Like, legendary golf style home run swing. If he can tweak his mechanics a bit and not have such a crazy uppercut then maybe the babip and K rate both improve.
  19. Laika
    That's how some people think about it but I don't know of that has statistical justification. I know Eno Sarris mentions that all the time so if you listen to Rates and Barrels that might be where you heard it
  20. Laika
    Hmmmm they'd still be in Toronto probably
  21. Laika
    They have batted ball stats for minors on FG. He's an extreme FB guy. It's like the Adam Duvall or Joey Gallo school of hitting. So it's not the good kind of extreme FB like Trout where it's liners and flyballs. It's flyballs and pop ups.
  22. Laika
    He'll basically be Matt Chapman without the elite elite D
  23. Laika
    Worst defensive team display I have seen in a long time
  24. Laika
    It's too late to take off at that point. Basically you are saying he should have read off the bat that the fielder didn't have an easy play. Impossible
  25. Laika
    That is a f***ing stupid question lmao
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