No you still don't get it
We are not comparing specific players
My point is that 50%+ FB rates = low BABIP. I am pulling that point from *all of baseball* and applying it to Orelvis. There might be freak of nature exceptions but the trend is very obvious.
We don't really care about what Orelvis did back in the low, low minors. That has little meaning anymore.
Here is everyone qualified since 2000. Very clear that high FB% = low BABIP. Like, the effect is so strong that with a FB rate of 50%+ you essentially cannot find a hitter with a BABIP that is even above average.
With the batted ball approach that Orelvis Martinez has demonstrated ever since A+ it will be very, very hard according to *all of the information in the history of baseball* for him to hit for average.
To wit, Steamer now projects him to hit .218 with a .253 BABIP.
The problem is made worse by his contact rates which don't look great either.
The good news is that with his power and possible defensive utility he only needs to improve this s*** incrementally to be decent. He could hit .240 and be good.