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Laika

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Everything posted by Laika

  1. Laika
    owed $7.5M, $12M, $12M, $12M, $14M team option in 2027 6.2 fWAR in 59 GS over the last 3 seasons... so he might be a 3.1 WAR pitcher by true talent. But by BR he is only at 4.8 WAR over that timeframe. So it's more holistic to think of him as a 2.4 to 3.1 WAR true talent. Always some risk when a player leaves the Rockies for various reasons, just a weird org and weird place to play. will turn 28 over the winter boring skill set; low K and GB profile does not scream upside, at all... I mean the Rockies would be MORONS to not do the trade. Senzatela should not have as much value as Jansen; his contract is pretty close to what he might get in free agency I think at most there is like a $10M or $15M gap between his contract and what he would get in FA which is essentially his market value. I think Jansen as a guy who seems to have unlocked 4+ WAR upside and maybe 5 WAR upside carried more value.
  2. Laika

    NHL Thread

    Laika replied to GD's topic in Other Sports

    And on top of that some of their actually good players are one way guys. And their goaltending is never great.
  3. Laika

    NHL Thread

    Laika replied to GD's topic in Other Sports

    yeah they have been completely inept for a few years now at filling out the team with 3rd and 4th liners and merely competent depth defensemen. look at the age of their defense past Reilly (28) and Sandin (22): Holl 30 Brodie 32 Giordano 39 Muzzin 33 I think Sandin is 5th in ice time too so the playing time skews old. That is pretty terrifying and stinks of a series of desperation moves from an org that has not been able to develop talent. Compare to the ages of a team that always seems to somehow remain good, Boston: McAvoy 24 Lindholm 28 Carlo 25 Clifton 27 Grzelcyk 28 Forbort 30 Stralman 36 McAvoy + Clifton + Carlo + Grzelcyk = four home grown defenseman in the regular rotation and 28 years old or less....
  4. Laika
    Tyler O’Neill is jacked and he bleeds maple syrup he’s like if Chris Benoit and Bret Hart’s sister had a kid Danny Jansen is almost not an athlete he basically has Jeffrey Dahmer’s physique and face
  5. Laika
    I don’t think their pen is any better. Robertson is a bit wild and s*****. Alvarado had a good year but he’s a gas can. Toronto has better middle relief for sure and I think the better closer hands down
  6. Laika
    Jays pitching is basically the same as Philly
  7. Laika
    You guys know they have pitch splits on statcast right? Just look at Jansen vs breaking balls and compare that to some other good hitters (everyone does better against fastballs ofc)
  8. Laika
    Don’t they just do three outfield silver sluggers? These are the nominees as listed Aaron Judge (NYY) Julio Rodríguez (SEA) Kyle Tucker (HOU) Mike Trout (LAA) Randy Arozarena (TB) George Springer (TOR) Taylor Ward (LAA) Anthony Santander (BAL) Adolis García (TEX) Teoscar Hernández (TOR) They also nominated four for the other positions which helps explain Chapman sneaking in there
  9. Laika
    He made a lot of contact in 2022 for a guy with his flyball and pull tendencies.
  10. Laika
    Jansen ranks as probably their 6th best PROJECTED hitter right now. For most of the season he probably ranked 8th or 7th. Maybe even 9th at the beginning.
  11. Laika
    You’re just thinking of Robbie Ray blowing it. Garcia, Eflin, and Suarez have been used in relief by these two teams with success. Garcia was the hero of Houston’s epic extra innings win earlier. The homer he gave up last night was a good pitch too - 98 and outside
  12. Laika
    Want to make some trades to change my clubhouse chemistry a bit Brayden Schenn Sean Monahan Evan Rodrigues Philip Danault Andrew Copp Colton Parayko Damon Severson Josh Anderson Bo Horvat Vince Dunn All available
  13. Laika
    Look, I love that you love Danny Jansen. I love him too.
  14. Laika
    The talent comp in a best case scenario would be JT Realmuto. Realmuto did not turn into a star until his 3rd full season I could see Moreno following a similar development timeline. That is, even if he ends up as the best catcher in baseball his best years might mostly come outside of his first 6 seasons of team control...
  15. Laika
    Do you guys think Jansen or Moreno is the more liquid asset? Jansen isn't worth nearly as much so it should be easier to find a trade partner but with only 2 years of control the market is limited to contenders or wannabes with catching holes. Moreno is worth A LOT but as an MLB ready prospect the potential market is much wider... competitive teams and rebuilding teams alike would want him. It's not obvious which of the two would be easier to trade. Or Kirk for that matter. I really have no idea what Toronto will do. How exciting.
  16. Laika
    German Marquez - I want him but I can't even see what he Rockies could add to make their side worth Jansen. Freddy Peralta for Jansen? Pablo Lopez, everybody mentions him all the time.
  17. Laika
    I think the only rumours I have seen surround the Marlins and guys like Pablo Lopez
  18. Laika
    I would prefer various other trades but finding a dance partner for Kirk or Moreno is much harder. And holding three catchers like this is probably a woefully inefficient use of resources. Even in his down season O'Neill played okay, like a league average corner outfielder.
  19. Laika
    No. Gurriel and O'Neill have identical career wRC+ but O'Neill has a much better demonstrated ceiling. So I would say O'Neill is better offensively. BaseRunning is part of offense and O'Neill blows Gurriel out of the water. Defense is not close at all; fringe CF vs fringe DH. O'Neill even had a higher xwOBA in 2022 than Gurriel; you can argue that O'Neill was a better hitter results aside. I really think O'Neill has a lot of positive regression in 2023. He is in his physical prime and his advanced stats were quite good in 2022. He was unlucky. Yes, injuries might be a thing that he is prone to but Jansen is in the same boat. TO broke out in 2021 and then improves his K-BB significantly the next year... I didn't say I would want to do Jansen straight up but the gap between Jansen and O'Neill is not big.
  20. Laika
    Yeah I could see it. They might think they can construct a roster that is simply better than one with him on it. It's also a bit of an awkward situation and clubhouse distraction. Obviously I don't really think they would non-tender him to save money. It's the Dodgers... they'd pay $19M for a platoon player without worrying too much.
  21. Laika
    It's funny to see people scoff at Tyler O'Neill Cardinals fans (and fans of other teams) very likely look at Jansen's Fangraphs page and RIGHTLY categorize him as a guy who cannot stay healthy and has been a fringe-average hitter throughout his career with one partial MLB season of really good offensive performance. The Blue Jays are quite simply not going to get trade value for Danny Jansen as if he is a 4 WAR player. They just won't. Because he's never done that. Tyler O'Neill in 2021 alone put up almost as much WAR as Jansen has in his entire career. Swapping Jansen for O'Neill improves Toronto is basically every way. Defensively, on the bases, offensively...
  22. Laika
    Jeff McNeil - too good but 2 years control Verdugo - 2 years control Winker - 1 year control Bryan Reynolds - 3 years control, Pitt won't want a C with less control Ian Happ - 1 year of control Santander - no trade fit Mike Yastrzemski - 3 years control but 32 Grisham - 3 years control Bellinger - no value, one year control, expensive
  23. Laika
    O'Neill has higher demonstrated upside than Jansen; 5.6 WAR as recently as 2021. He also had a tantalizing 2022 because he improved his plate discipline stats. He looks like a great buy low IMO. He is a jacked thoroughbred toolshed who can realistically go 30/15 and he is a big defensive upgrade on a corner spot. He can even spot start in CF I think. Five tool talent. Hicks or Reyes = one year of control for a bullpen lottery ticket with fireballing setup man upside. Of course, you can't expect much from either one and I don't think either is even worth that much. But as far as a throw in to close a value gap... hard to get more interesting arms than this. You have to also assume they can get even value for Teoscar or Gurriel and turn them into a SP or something.
  24. Laika
    Danny Jansen for Tyler O'Neill and Jordan Hicks or Alex Reyes thoughts? Toronto would probably trade Gurriel in a follow up move. Or Teo I guess.
  25. Laika
    You want Chisholm but both are great and Riley Greene might suck
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