On one hand, everyone admits that a baseball organization can't really control what happens in the playoffs. It's very random and even the best teams in the regular season often only have marginally better probabilities than the teams that barely made the playoffs.
On the other hand, Toronto has flopped three years in a row. 2020 - only made it because of expansion but didn't win a game. 2021 - didn't even make it, missing by a single game. 2022 - lmao.
If you are going to entertain things like cultural or management changes I think an honest critique of the process is needed.
Judging the Process
Good Process
- Berrios trade. Good timing on trading the prospects. Nice, aggressive target.
- Springer signing. Ryu signing. Yeah Ryu won't be worth the money and George might not quite be when it's all said and done but both of these big signing were important. Springer is needed both as a competent CF (organizational thin spot) and a leader (another thing spot). Ryu's signing sent an important message to lots of people inside and outside the org and really kickstarted a positive culture shift.
- Bass and Pop trade. I still think this off-the-board trade was great, despite what happened on Saturday. They not only addressed an in-season problem but they perhaps salvaged a significant amount of value from a rapidly declining asset in Groshans.
- Gausman signing. Self explanatory.
- Ross Stripling. I guess he is a good example of why you get a guy with multiple years of control and flexible usage, if you can. Then if you don't get immediate positive returns there is a chance to work with the asset, if the talent is there?
- Matz trade. Worked out great. Gave up only trash for him.
- Ray trade + development. He was free and won a Cy Young.
- Chapman trade. They gave up basically nothing for him lol.
Neutral Process
- Berrios extension. It was fair money to a good pitcher. Can't really fault the team for his 2022 disaster season.
- Tapia trade. An innocuous trade on the fringe to slightly improve the roster and save a tiny bit of money, maybe.
- Hand and Soria acquisitions. These were lateral moves at worst in context so it's hard to criticize these moves specifically, despite what Hand did.
- Merrifield trade.
Bad Process
- Use of Raimel Tapia. Overused and misused, including at the most critical juncture of 2022. This is on the front office because they either a) misevaluated the player or failed to ensure that the coaching staff were using him properly.
- Charlie Montoyo. Should have never been the guy. He would be a good choice for a team entering a 3-5 year rebuild but that was NOT the look of the 2019 Blue Jays.
- Yusei Kikuchi. I don't even think the IDEA of getting Kikuchi was terrible in context but the money/term seemed high at the time and is very tough to rationalize now that it's coloured by hindsight...
- Pitching development. I think the disappointment people have with some of the trades and moves in the pen should be directed at a slightly different, fundamental issue. This organization has not developed or found enough high upside relief pitching and competent pitching depth, for several years now. The fact that they even have Romano is basically dumb luck since they let him go at first without recognizing his potential as a reliever. They have made very questionable decisions with guys like Pearson and Hatch, and maybe Merryweather, letting them start and arguably putting their development and health off track. They let high leverage relievers like Bryan Baker and Jason Adam slip through their control. The SHAPE of the bullpen right now and the style of pitcher that fills it out, after Romano, is a symptom of the developmental problem. I know lots of people want more "swing and miss" in the pen but really you can't just go out and pay money for that as a winning strategy - you can do it for maybe one guy in a compete year but other than that you have to either develop it yourself or be smart enough to find it on the scrap pile. Toronto has a huge problem here, ostensibly. I think in response to their own issues the GM has done an okay job patching the pen with veterans and budget additions... but the starting rotation now looks very top heavy and too expensive. Far too much right now seems to be riding on the immediate rise of a small number of promising minor leaguers in AA/AAA.
- Control of tactical decision making - Montoyo had continuous issues, here and there, where he would make dogshit in game decisions. Schneider is probably not any better and it was on full display in the final game this year. This is a communication problem, perhaps a coaching staff personnel problem.
The pitching developmental problems also make it hard to evaluate the Mitch White swap because it seems so very reactionary and something they kind of "had" to do because of the fundamental problem.
What did I get wrong? What did I miss?
When you look at all the stuff the team has done objectively WELL in the last few years it's hard to even entertain the thought of firing front office people. But I do admit there are some problems.