Some "worst case scenarios" where TEX/SEA/HOU never lose to a non-TEX/HOU/SEA team:
A: Texas never loses again, Seattle only loses to Texas, Houston only loses to Seattle:
Texas 95 wins, Seattle 87 wins, Houston 92 wins.
Jays need to go 5-7.
B: Seattle never loses again, Texas only loses to Seattle, Houston only loses to Seattle:
Houston 92 wins, Seattle 94 wins, Texas 88 wins.
Jays need to go 6-6.
C: Seattle goes 4-3 against Texas and wins the rest, Texas wins the rest, Houston only loses to Seattle:
Houston 92 wins, Seattle 91 wins, Texas 91 wins.
Jays need to go 9-3.
D: Texas goes 4-3 against Seattle and wins the rest, Seattle wins the rest, Houston only loses to Seattle:
Houston 92 wins, Texas 92 wins, Seattle 90 wins.
Jays need to go 8-4.
"the rest" for:
Texas is BOSx3 and LAAx3 [and SEAx7 of course]
Seattle is OAKx3 [and TEXx7 and HOUx3 of course]
Houston is BALx3 and KCRx3 and ARZx3
This can just swing in so many different ways. Toronto could be mediocre and sneak in, or they may need to stomp TB and NYY.