Laika

Notes from KL prospect writeups: Leo Jimenez... boosted his peak exit velocity for the third straight year, reaching 110 mph in Triple A. He’s got a simple right-handed swing that emphasizes contact, with some tendency to pull the ball, and now he’s grown into the strength to hit like that and have some more success. Addison Barger... hurt his throwing elbow early last year Kendry Rojas... has a loose, athletic body and looks like he could easily show up with 2 more mph at any time, at which point the outlook would change. Right now it’s fourth or fifth starter with that pitch mix, as long as he builds up to that workload. Enmanuel Bonilla... "is one of the best athletes in the system and extremely strong already, a plus runner who can stick in center and who has plus raw power right now... For pure upside, he might lead the whole system" Brandon Barriera... lost a lot of weight this offseason and seems to be regaining some of the arm strength Fernando Perez is... a ways off but projects as a league-average starter. Chad Dallas has.... back-end upside for sure, just some risk that major-league hitters will lay off the slider below the zone and force him to throw strikes with the fastball. Nolan Perry has.... a solid-average curveball that projects to plus and an average fastball at 90-94 mph... he has the frame to become a mid-rotation starter in time if he develops a real weapon for lefties. Alan Roden... fringy power... does not swing and miss, and that will probably carry him to a big-league bench spot David Guzman... a fun-sized corner outfielder (listed at 5-7, 160) who makes a ton of contact already... with a chance for average power at his peak... a 55 runner who should end up in right field, with an accurate arm and great instincts in the field and on the bases. Yosver Zulueta... cannot throw strikes Jace Bohrofen... a steal in last year’s sixth round, a hard-hitting center fielder with 20-homer upside Manuel Beltre... has gained quite a bit of muscle, but he’s still not impacting the ball anywhere near enough to be more than an up-and-down guy

I don't think that many people are rushing to the mall in December to buy a Matt Chapman or Cody Bellinger shirsey because their team opened up the wallet

The blurbs are very short. The Jays one basically says - some really exciting guys in the low minors - many returning prospects stalled or even took steps backward last year - Orelvis' big year helped - Nimmala was a steal in the draft This is not stated by KL but reading between the lines, he has Toronto in some big tier of teams that might range all the way from the Mets (15) or Mariners (16) to the Royals (25) and it is hard to discern between those teams

Why does it matter when players sign? I have always thought the NBA style was pretty boring. Everything happens in a week, then there is nothing to talk about all offseason.

Well you sound dumb there

Reilly is a bitch. If he didn't like that empty netter he should have not lost to the f***ing Ottawa Senators lmao. This is like the Jays having a "rivalry" with the White Sox or something. Embarrassing for Leafs fans everywhere

You mean the section for relievers?

Yeah I think the changes he made were pretty simple. I think they shaped the slider a bit differently with the point of commanding it better. So he lost a tiny but of stuff on the slider but his command of it went up a full standard deviation. And then they just told him to aim for the middle of the zone more often, which may have helped the FB command significantly. 2022 overall: 107 stuff, 94 location FB only 116; 91 SL only 103; 101 2023 overall: 105; 101 FB only 117; 99 SL only 101; 105 He could lose the changes I guess but it would be a big weird since they seem simple enough.

catastrophic data for any Atkins supporter I am pulling my support cannot defend him anymore

Although.... the models still have him as an above replacement level player, obviously on the strength of his minor league numbers before 2023. .250 .306 .336 .251 .305 .337 ^ one of those is Otto Lopez per ZiPS. The other one is...... Mr. Isiiiiaaaaaaaah Kineeeeeerrrrrrr-Falefaaaaaa!!!!!! come on down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

works for Hall of Fame voting!

high?

Toronto doesn't even need an SP7. The top 4 are bulletproof and good for 32 starts each. Need an SP6 to flip with Manoah but that's it.

Shopping for a Wes Parsons shirsey right now

I definitely would NOT read that from the fact that Parson's was the 8th and final guy to literally start a game. They just threw him a nothing-burger GS at the end of the year. If they needed multiple starts in games that mattered, it may have been someone else or some other strategy.

White - pen Tiedemann - AAA, not on 40 man Rodriguez - who knows Francis - AAA SP hmmmm

He could be as high as 9th or 10th on the SP chart presently.

The models like him. Former NC Dinos Ace, Arthur Wesley Parsons, was one of the best pitchers in the KBO in 2021 and for a brief time in 2022. His K/9 was among the elite during such period. In 2023, in 81.2 innings at the AAA level, Arthur Wesley Parsons had a K/9 in the top 4 among SP with at least 80 innings, slotting in behind real prospects Robert Gasser, Drew Rom, and Jared Jones, and above real prospects like Gavin Stone, Joey Cantillo, and Juan Soto trade headliner Randy Vasquez. Steamer presently projects him for a sub 4.00 ERA in relief, while ZIPS thinks he could be an above replacement level arm in a swing-role. The Blue Jays probably think he could be competent arm for ~3 innings if they are desperate. He might be better than a random prospect, like Chad Dallas and Luis Quinones, and he might project better than most of the presently willing MiLB potential signees. He might be able to miss bats, for one turn through the order.

sort of shades of the Gurriel deal 7/$22M for a 23 year old vs. 5/$32M for a 27 year old The Cubans are willing to give the team some upside on a longer term deal in exchange for a decent chunk of guaranteed money A bit different from the Japanese/KBO players who sometimes try to just get decent money and the chance to opt out or be a free agent ASAP

nice

It would be wild He has negative $24M value per BTV. And he's a good personality fit for the organization.

Yeah I think they would just make KK the expensive 4th OF But they aren't signing Bellinger

I don't see how it makes much sense. It's a push by projections; pretty close to swapping a 2.5 win OF for a 2.5 win OF They'd be turning Springer's 3 year commitment into... whatever Bellinger settles for, probably 5+ years at same or higher AAV They'd get much younger of course and you could argue that they would have more upside, but personally I see Springer as a safer bet to be good in 2024 based on basic stuff like maxEV and batted ball data. And then likely losing something to get out of the Springer contract as he has negative value. So I bet they'd have to take another negative value contract back, or spend prospect capital.

I'm not sure the risk reward is proportionate. You can't really measure it by saying most of the time it's a success, because the downsides are near catastrophic. In 2019 Corbin and Keuchel were expected to get like $120M and $90M. Corbin signed for 6/$140M. Good thing he did. Keuchel held out and got like $13M. He had to get pretty lucky and perform highly again to make decent money after that. A less aggressive agent probably advises their player to just take the offer that is 85% of what they want, at some point. The downside is not "catastrophy" like it is with Boras shenanigans. Keuchel was one elbow injury away from leaving something like $70M on the table for all we know

Thomas and Ruiz are worth close to nothing. Both could lose their jobs and be bench players in MLB at any moment. I dunno though, for the same reason I wouldn't want to really keep them. I would probably keep Greene and Jones, then just dump Ruiz or Thomas for any arm above replacement level or a draft pick